Waiwaiwait. Don’t click back. I’m mostly serious on this Dwayne Bowe fantasy value thing.
Let’s start with the ADP Arbitrage App.
Dwayne Bowe is actually younger than Larry Fitzgerald and they had pretty similar 2014 seasons. You might be saying “Yeah, but this is still patently ridiculous and I can’t believe I’ve spent this much time reading this article when I could be watching internet porn.” And I wouldn’t disagree with you completely.
However, the reality is that while there are still Larry Fitzgerald apologists in the wild, long after the Dwayne Bowe apologists were killed off by his poor play, Bowe kind of has an excuse for sucking just like Fitz does. Bowe has played the last two seasons with Alex Smith who hasn’t ever been good for any wide receiver. Here’s Smith’s graph from the AYA App.
You can actually see that once you take out Travis Kelce and Vernon Davis (neither of them are wide receivers if you haven’t heard), Smith has been as efficient throwing to Bowe as he has been throwing to any other receiver. Basically, Alex Smith probably wasn’t doing a lot to prop up Bowe’s production. Smith doesn’t really challenge any defense (except for sometimes with his legs) and he does stuff like run out of bounds on 4th down instead of taking a shot down the field. Alex Smith thinks a Toyota Camry is a sexy sports car.
The most likely possibility for the remainder of Bowe’s career is that he’s done but will sign a one year deal with a team which will only succeed in confirming that he’s done.
But I think there are two good reasons to take a flier on him late in a draft. He’s been playing with a QB who hasn’t done him any favors, and is probably going to get his release soon. There are probably only about 10 situations in the league that might be worse for Bowe than where he’s been playing. Actually, there are probably only about five or so because even though Alex Smith is better than a lot of the worst QBs in the league, those other QBs could still produce a WR1 just with volume throwing. So Bowe’s situation almost can’t get worse. Then there’s the issue that he’s cheaper than both Pierre Garcon and Fitzgerald who are coming off similar seasons and are being drafted in front of Bowe. It’s a pretty big leap of faith to say that conditions for a Garcon bounceback are going to magically materialize. In Fitz’s case it now seems like the most likely outcome is that he’ll be back in ARI competing for targets with Michael Floyd and John Brown.
Everyone knows that Dwayne Bowe is done. What this article presupposes is… maybe he’s not?
At WR78 you pretty much can’t go wrong.