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Should Dorial Green-Beckham be the No.1 Rookie Draft Pick?

The answer to the question posed in the title of this post is “no.” Wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham shouldn’t be the No. 1 pick in rookie fantasy drafts—because he can be had for cheaper.

A strong case could be made that, in an efficient market, DGB should be the No. 1 pick.1 Fortunately, rookie drafts are rarely efficient, a fact that provides us with the opportunity to buy potentially elite production at a discount, and that’s exactly what I’m recommending here.

Action Item: People holding a pick as high as No. 5 in rookie drafts should strongly consider drafting DGB, as I believe that he likely has No. 1 intrinsic value.

No. 1 value at the No. 5 price?

#Arbitrage

Green-Beckham & RotoViz

Of all the 2015 NFL Draft prospects, DGB might be the one about whom RotoViz has written the most. I haven’t crunched the numbers to see if I’m right—because I like to pretend that I have a life—but it’s possible that I’m right.

In no particular order . . .

We’ve wondered if DGB is the next Calvin Johnson.

We’ve noted how DGB is similar to Kelvin Benjamin.

We’ve speculated that DGB’s future owners will benefit (maybe twice) from recency bias.

We’ve surmised that DGB provides the best mix of value and upside in the value storm brewing in the rookie WR market.

We’ve pointed out that DGB’s score in the Megatron Index is respectable at worst.

We’ve argued that DGB, even with his off-field issues, already should be a mid-first-round pick in rookie drafts.

And we’ve already envisioned a scenario in which DGB could deserve the No. 1 rookie pick.

In this post, I’m really just building upon the thoughts of others and wanting to throw some fuel on the fire.

Green-Beckham & Football Outsiders

Per ESPN Insider, Green-Beckham is an uninspiring draft prospect according to Football Outsiders’ Playmaker Score. Whereas most people believe that DGB is unquestionably one of the top-six WRs in this draft, the Playmaker Score ranks DGB as the No. 13 receiver.

For instance, at Play The Draft (a fantasy stock market for 2015 draft prospects), DGB is ranked as a low-first-round pick.

[Side note: It’s free to play in the RotoViz Radio Play The Draft league, there’s no limit on the number of people who can join the league, Jon and I get extra “satisfaction” as more people sign up, and the top-10 finishers will win a free annual subscription to RotoViz. Help us out. Help yourself out. Join the RV Radio PTD league.]

Why is DGB only FO’s No. 13 WR? Here’s what FO’s Nathan Foster had to say about it:

Playmaker Score sometimes has trouble with players like Green-Beckham, who had limited college action and thus are less likely to produce a sample size sufficiently meaningful to forecast their futures. . . .

However, Green-Beckham was not particularly impressive in either of his two seasons of college football.

Although two seasons of data were enough for evaluations of K-Benjy, Larry FitzgeraldMike EvansJosh GordonPlaxico Burress, and Mike Williams (Southern California), I agree that DGB’s sample of two seasons is imperfect in that it lacks data from what would have been his all-important age-21 junior season.

Still, I disagree with the assertion that “Green-Beckham was not particularly impressive in either of his two seasons of college football.” I guess it all depends on what you consider “particularly impressive” and on what basis you evaluate if something is impressive. To me, it’s impressive when a guy is comparable to other guys who have dominated in the NFL—and I think that DGB is comparable to the six players mentioned above and a host of others.

Now, if you look at DGB’s two seasons of college as “the last two seasons of his career” and “the only two seasons of his career” then they might not seem impressive, but that might be a limited way in which to view those seasons. Rather, I think that you should view them as “his age-19 and -20 seasons” and “the first two seasons of his career.” In this light they’re much more impressive.

Green-Beckham: Age & Experience

In many ways, Green-Beckham is an incomparable prospect—so an evaluation of him is more difficult than the standard evaluation is of a normal three- or four-year college player—but that doesn’t mean that we can’t evaluate him or compare him to other players. It just means we need to be more deliberate and imaginative when doing so.

Specifically, because DGB didn’t play what would’ve been his third and fourth college seasons, we can’t really compare his first two seasons to the final seasons of other WRs or his abbreviated career to the fuller careers of prior prospects. Rather, we need to evaluate DGB on the basis of what he did at his age and level of experience, since age matters and experience matters.

And, more specifically, we need to evaluate him on the basis of his breakout season—his age-20 campaign and his second year of playing college football.

Not that there’s anything wrong with DGB’s 19-year-old true freshman campaign. By raw stats, a season with 28 receptions for 395 yards and five touchdowns receiving in 10 games doesn’t look great—but keep in mind the following:

1) As a freshman in 2012, DGB led Missouri in TDs receiving despite missing two games. Not many SEC freshmen lead their teams in TDs receiving. The last four SEC freshman to do that besides DGB who come to mind are Alshon JefferyJordan MatthewsDonte Moncrief, and Amari Cooper. There might be others within the past few seasons—but none that are or will be top-100 draft selections.

2) DGB’s subpar quarterbacks completed only 55.23 percent of their 411 passes for only 2,621 yards and 15 TDs against 14 interceptions. DGB didn’t have quite the worst collection of 2012 SEC QBs throwing to him as a freshman, but they were really bad.

3) DGB’s freshman 26.66 Dominator Rating on 13.86 percent of his team’s receptions is comparable to (and better than) the 25.00 DR that Josh Gordon achieved in his 19-year-old sophomore season. Think about that. Even though Gordon had one more year of collegiate playing time, DGB (at Gordon’s age) did in his first year what Gordon didn’t do until his second year.

4) DGB, with his 26.66 DR, was his team’s overall leader in receiving production. It’s not often that a freshman is his team’s leading WR—much less in the SEC.

When all of that is taken into account, DGB’s freshman year looks impressive.

But really we should judge DGB primarily on the basis of his age-20 second season, as it contains the full evidence of his progress and his NFL potential.

Green-Beckham & the Insanity of Player Comparisons

I’ve written recently about how irrational player comparisons are often made, and with a player like Green-Beckham, who is a physical outlier entering the NFL under unorthodox circumstances, creating a comp group might seem difficult—but we can at least try to do it and see what we get.

1) DGB is projected to be no worse than a fourth-round selection. In fact, he will probably be a top-100 pick and potentially a top-50 pick with first-round upside. So let’s start with all WRs drafted no later than the fourth round over the last 15 years, since 2000.

2) Even though at Missouri DGB was listed at 225 pounds,2 at the combine he measured in at 6 feet 5 inches and 237 pounds, and at his pro day he weighed 236 pounds—so he’s a big dude. As so few WRs enter the NFL (or at least participate in the combine and/or their pro days) at a comparable size, I’ve decided to be less quantitative and more qualitative in my approach. DGB’s defining physical characteristic is that he’s a “big WR,” and so I want to compare him to other “big WRs” to enter the NFL in the last 15 years. It’s arbitrary, but I’m saying that anyone who was at least 6 feet 2 inches and 220 pounds at the combine and/or his pro day is somewhat comparable to DGB in that they are both “big WRs.” I probably could’ve gone with 6 feet 4 inches and 225 pounds as the arbitrary cutoffs, as Rich Hribar recently did in his DGB profile, but I at least at first want to cast my nets wide and include big WRs such as Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas who otherwise would’ve been excluded.

And that’s it. With those two criteria alone, we’ve created a cohort of 27 (potentially) comparable players to enter the NFL in the last 15 years.3

And as for how to compare DGB with this cohort—let’s look at age-20 seasons and second college seasons.

For some cohort players, such as Julio Jones and Michael Floyd, those two seasons coincide. In this case, I look only at that one season, as it is perfectly comparable.

For other cohort players, those two seasons do not coincide. For instance. Moncrief was 19 in his second season and 20 in his third season, and Demaryius was 20 in his first season and 21 in his second. In cases such as this, I combine the seasons, as I believe that both are comparable (even if imperfectly) to DGB’s age-20 second season.

Some cohort players—either because they are too old or too young—have a second season but no age-20 season, such as Benjamin (too old) and Gordon (too young). In such a case, I look only at the season available, even if the age does not align, because at least the experience is comparable.

Finally, Greg Little has a comparable age-20 season, but not a comparable second season, since he was a running back in his sophomore season and never played a second season at the WR position. In this case, I once again use the only season available, as the age aligns even if the experience does not.

Here’s how Green-Beckham’s biophysical profile compares to that of the cohort:4

DGB Comparables, Rounds 1-4, 2000-2015

PlayerDraftRoundPickRookie AgeHtWt40 TimeSp ScAg ScExpl ScBP Rep
Dorial Green-Beckham2015????2277236.54.49116.3811.34152.513
Cohort MeanNA1.945.922.375.6226.54.52108.5811.26161.616.9
Cohort MedianNA1.028.022.075.0224.54.52107.5711.28160.817.0
Mike Evans20141721772314.53109.7111.34NA12
Kelvin Benjamin201412823772404.61106.2811.72151.513
Donte Moncrief201439021742214.40117.9311.32171.513
Michael Floyd201211323752204.47110.2111.66158.516
Josh Gordon2012s23921752244.52107.33NA157.013
Julio Jones20111622752204.39118.4710.91173.517
Jonathan Baldwin201112622762284.50111.2011.41171.020
Greg Little20112592275222.54.53105.6711.01169.527
Demaryius Thomas20101222375224NANANANANA
Dez Bryant20101242274224.54.52107.5711.69171.0NA
Mike Williams (Syr)2010410123742214.55103.5811.21149.58
Ramses Barden200938523782284.60102.2911.36151.517
Patrick Turner200938722772234.59100.48NA147.521
Calvin Johnson20071222772394.35133.50NA181.5NA
Dwayne Bowe200712323742214.49109.2411.16158.0NA
Brandon Marshall2006411922772294.56105.9311.27157.0NA
Mike Williams (USC)200511021772294.59103.6411.18159.5NA
Vincent Jackson200526122772414.51116.50NA168.023
Larry Fitzgerald20041321752234.51107.80NANA20
Reggie Williams20041921762274.56105.0011.35155.0NA
Ernest Wilford2004412025762264.7886.95NA170.5NA
Andre Johnson20031322742304.41121.62NA171.0NA
Tyrone Calico200326023762234.34125.7110.99165.0NA
Kelley Washington200336524752234.45113.74NANANA
Ron Johnson2002412322752254.7092.2211.14152.5NA
Plaxico Burress20001823772314.59104.09NA148.0NA
Jerry Porter200024722742214.48109.73NANANA

In general, DGB is comparable to the cohort as a prospect. Selected with a pick anywhere from 28 to 46, the cohort has a draft range corresponding to DGB’s projected draft position. As expected DGB is substantially bigger and marginally faster but not as agile or explosive. Still, if you adjust for DGB’s weight his agility is very good, and to me his advantage in size and speed outweighs his shortcoming in the jumps and bench press. As much as any group of prospects can be physically similar to DGB, this group is.

And how does DGB’s age-20 second season compare to that of the cohort? Note that for players with a “0.5” attached to their season or age I have averaged two of their seasons together. For players who redshirted a season I have added 0.5 to their class, so a redshirt sophomore is listed as “2.5,” while a true sophomore is “2.0.” Also, “2.5” could represent someone who was an age-19 sophomore and age-20 junior.

DGB Comparables, Production, Rounds 1-4, 2000-2015

PlayerSeasonClassAgeRec/GYds/GTD/GMS RecMS YdMS TDTot MSFP/G
Dorial Green-Beckham20132204.263.10.8622.1024.9438.7131.8311.5
Cohort MeanNA2.320.14.471.80.6625.0430.4136.1833.3011.1
Cohort MedianNA2.520.04.472.40.6224.7531.8435.7133.7811.7
Mike Evans2013.02.520.05.3107.20.9220.3530.3530.0030.1816.3
Kelvin Benjamin2013.02.522.03.972.21.0718.7522.8635.7129.2913.7
Donte Moncrief2012.52.519.54.873.70.6222.1627.8033.3330.5711.1
Michael Floyd2009.02.020.06.3113.61.2924.0433.4645.0039.2319.1
Josh Gordon2010.02.019.03.254.90.5413.4219.5730.4325.008.7
Julio Jones2009.02.020.03.345.80.3122.6325.1726.6725.926.4
Jonathan Baldwin2009.02.020.04.485.50.6226.0340.4434.7837.6112.2
Greg Little2009.03.020.04.855.70.3828.1831.8435.7133.787.9
Demaryius Thomas2007.52.020.53.047.60.2838.4538.6157.5048.066.4
Dez Bryant2008.02.020.06.7113.81.4641.4347.0076.0061.5020.2
Mike Williams (Syr)2007.02.020.05.069.80.8329.7030.4455.5643.0012.0
Ramses Barden2006.02.520.03.874.90.4543.3055.4545.4550.4510.2
Patrick Turner2006.52.519.53.336.30.2115.3514.939.5812.264.9
Calvin Johnson2005.02.020.04.574.00.5027.4137.9050.0043.9510.4
Dwayne Bowe2004.02.020.03.959.70.5023.3526.8029.4128.109.0
Brandon Marshall2003.52.519.52.529.70.0815.7016.776.2511.513.5
Mike Williams (USC)2003.02.019.07.3101.11.2334.6734.6641.0337.8417.5
Vincent Jackson2002.52.519.53.882.31.124.7531.9044.6438.2714.6
Larry Fitzgerald2002.52.519.56.2103.01.3136.1140.2956.2248.2518.1
Reggie Williams2002.52.519.57.3102.10.7629.1233.2943.1738.2314.8
Ernest Wilford2001.02.522.00.79.10.095.035.076.255.661.5
Andre Johnson2001.02.520.03.462.00.9119.0724.7841.6733.2211.7
Tyrone Calico2000.02.020.04.368.40.2721.5628.5821.4325.018.5
Kelley Washington2002.02.023.05.8110.80.2530.2642.5112.5027.5112.6
Ron Johnson1999.52.519.54.572.40.7929.8233.7249.3841.5512.0
Plaxico Burress1998.02.521.05.484.40.6728.3834.2938.1036.1912.4
Jerry Porter1999.02.021.01.428.30.367.0812.6721.0516.865.0

Realistically, I don’t know if I could make this comp group any more productively similar if I had wanted to do so. In his age-20 second season, the average cohort player caught a similar number of passes for slightly more yardage but significantly fewer TDs. The difference of 1.47 in DGB’s and the cohort’s DRs is effectively negligible, especially when you consider that he had 22.10 percent of his team’s receptions while the cohort had 25.04 percent of team receptions. With similar receptions, DGB and the cohort had similar production (11.5 fantasy points per game vs. 11.1 pts/g). It doesn’t get much better than that.

For what it’s worth, 16 of these 27 WRs have had at least one top-30 season and 12 of them have had at least one top-12 season. In any group of WRs—but especially one in which almost half of the receivers are not first-round selections—respective hit rates of 59.26 and 44.44 percent for top-30 and WR1 seasons are excellent.

To give an idea of how strong this comp group is: Historically, about 66 percent of first-round WRs have top-30 positional seasons. In the DGB comp group, 78.57 percent of the first-round WRs have such seasons, and 64.29 percent have WR1 seasons. This is a really strong comp group.

Of course, the odds are that Green-Beckham will not be drafted after the second round. What does he look like in comparison to just the first- and second-round players from the previous comp group?

DGB Comparables, Rounds 1-2, 2000-2015

PlayerDraftRoundPickRookie AgeHtWt40 TimeSp ScAg ScExpl ScBP Rep
Dorial Green-Beckham2015????2277236.54.49116.3811.34152.513
Cohort MeanNA1.323.722.175.6227.34.49111.4711.31163.917.9
Cohort MedianNA1.022.022.075.0224.54.51108.5311.34165.017.0
Mike Evans20141721772314.53109.7111.34NA12
Kelvin Benjamin201412823772404.61106.2811.72151.513
Michael Floyd201211323752204.47110.2111.66158.516
Josh Gordon2012s23921752244.52107.33NA157.013
Julio Jones20111622752204.39118.4710.91173.517
Jonathan Baldwin201112622762284.50111.2011.41171.020
Greg Little20112592275222.54.53105.6711.01169.527
Demaryius Thomas20101222375224NANANANANA
Dez Bryant20101242274224.54.52107.5711.69171.0NA
Calvin Johnson20071222772394.35133.50NA181.5NA
Dwayne Bowe200712323742214.49109.2411.16158.0NA
Mike Williams (USC)200511021772294.59103.6411.18159.5NA
Vincent Jackson200526122772414.51116.50NA168.023
Larry Fitzgerald20041321752234.51107.80NANA20
Reggie Williams20041921762274.56105.0011.35155.0NA
Andre Johnson20031322742304.41121.62NA171.0NA
Tyrone Calico200326023762234.34125.7110.99165.0NA
Plaxico Burress20001823772314.59104.09NA148.0NA
Jerry Porter200024722742214.48109.73NANANA

Yep, DGB is athletically still comparable. The bottom half of the first round is probably the highest he’ll be drafted, and although he is about 10 pounds heavier than the average cohort player he is comparably fast and agile. Again, he has shortcomings in the jumps and bench press, but I believe these are counterbalanced by his advantage in size. Besides, I’m not too worried about these shortcomings anyway. The only players worse than him in the jumps are K-Benjy and Plaxico Burress, so the extent to which jumps even matter for this comp group is uncertain, and the three players who performed comparably in the bench press are K-Benjy, Gordon, and Mike Evans. DGB is comparable to these first- and second-round big-bodied WRs—and his shortcomings might not matter.

Is DGB comparable as a producer on the field?

DGB Comparables, Production, Rounds 1-2, 2000-2015

PlayerSeasonClassAgeRec/GYds/GTD/GMS RecMS YdMS TDTot MSFP/G
Dorial Green-Beckham20132204.263.10.8622.1024.9438.7131.8311.5
Cohort MeanNA2.220.14.676.90.7625.5231.2939.9235.6012.3
Cohort MedianNA2.020.04.474.00.6724.7531.9038.1036.1912.2
Mike Evans2013.02.520.05.3107.20.9220.3530.3530.0030.1816.3
Kelvin Benjamin2013.02.522.03.972.21.0718.7522.8635.7129.2913.7
Michael Floyd2009.02.020.06.3113.61.2924.0433.4645.0039.2319.1
Josh Gordon2010.02.019.03.254.90.5413.4219.5730.4325.008.7
Julio Jones2009.02.020.03.345.80.3122.6325.1726.6725.926.4
Jonathan Baldwin2009.02.020.04.485.50.6226.0340.4434.7837.6112.2
Greg Little2009.03.020.04.855.70.3828.1831.8435.7133.787.9
Demaryius Thomas2007.52.020.53.047.60.2838.4538.6157.5048.066.4
Dez Bryant2008.02.020.06.7113.81.4641.4347.0076.0061.5020.2
Calvin Johnson2005.02.020.04.574.00.5027.4137.9050.0043.9510.4
Dwayne Bowe2004.02.020.03.959.70.5023.3526.8029.4128.109.0
Mike Williams (USC)2003.02.019.07.3101.11.2334.6734.6641.0337.8417.5
Vincent Jackson2002.52.519.53.882.31.124.7531.9044.6438.2714.6
Larry Fitzgerald2002.52.519.56.2103.01.3136.1140.2956.2248.2518.1
Reggie Williams2002.52.519.57.3102.10.7629.1233.2943.1738.2314.8
Andre Johnson2001.02.520.03.462.00.9119.0724.7841.6733.2211.7
Tyrone Calico2000.02.020.04.368.40.2721.5628.5821.4325.018.5
Plaxico Burress1998.02.521.05.484.40.6728.3834.2938.1036.1912.4
Jerry Porter1999.02.021.01.428.30.367.0812.6721.0516.865.0

He’s comparable, but the fit isn’t quite as good with the first- and second-round cohort as it was with the previous cohort. Still, he very much belongs in the group. For instance, all of the WRs with fewer receptions than DGB are still pretty impressive guys: K-Benjy, Gordon, Julio, Demaryius, Bowe, Vincent JacksonAndre Johnson, and Jerry Porter—all of whom have had top-30 positional campaigns. Although he lags the cohort in receptions and yards receiving, DGB is comparable as a scorer, and he trails the cohort by less than one pt/g. He fits in.

And as impressive as the previous cohort is this one is even more impressive. Of the 19 WRs, 14 have had at least one top-30 season and 11 have had at least one top-12 season. I don’t need to tell you, but respective hit rates of 73.68 and 57.89 percent for top-30 and WR1 seasons are about as good as you can expect for any comp group.

One more point: You might think that DGB’s 11.5 pts/g are unimpressive in comparison to the cohort’s 12.3. I think that his 11.5 are sufficient, given that the guys with fewer pts/g than him are Gordon, Julio, Little, Demaryius, Megatron, Bowe, Porter, and Tyrone Calico.

I think that DGB fits in with the impressive first- and second-round cohort, and DGB’s likely draft position, athleticism, and age-20 second season production give him a good chance of having NFL success.

The Green-Beckham SEC Comparables: Top-100 Picks, 2000-2015

This might sound elitist, but I think that the Southeastern Conference is unlike any other conference in college football. The SEC simply has better players all over the field and the competition in the SEC is stiffer than [insert here a vulgar Ron Jeremy joke].

Coming from the SEC, Green-Beckham (I believe) should be compared to the previous big-bodied SEC receivers drafted with top-100 picks (in addition to the previous groups).

Player Draft Round Pick Rookie Age Ht Wt 40 Time Sp Sc Ag Sc Expl Sc BP Rep
Dorial Green-Beckham 2015 ?? ?? 22 77 236.5 4.49 116.38 11.34 152.5 13
Cohort Mean NA 1.8 38.2 22.2 75.0 223.2 4.45 113.73 11.18 167.7 14.0
Cohort Median NA 1.0 23.0 22.0 75.0 221.0 4.45 112.72 11.24 171.5 13.0
Mike Evans 2014 1 7 21 77 231 4.53 109.71 11.34 NA 12
Donte Moncrief 2014 3 90 21 74 221 4.40 117.93 11.32 171.5 13
Julio Jones 2011 1 6 22 75 220 4.39 118.47 10.91 173.5 17
Dwayne Bowe 2007 1 23 23 74 221 4.49 109.24 11.16 158.0 NA
Kelley Washington 2003 3 65 24 75 223 4.45 113.74 NA NA NA

In general, DGB is comparable in draft range and athleticism. Aside from weight, DGB and Evans are basically doppelgangers—and DGB is also comparable to Moncrief (except for Moncrief’s superior jumps).

And as far as production goes . . .

Player Season Class Age Rec/G Yds/G TD/G MS Rec MS Yd MS TD Tot MS FP/G
Dorial Green-Beckham 2013 2 20 4.2 63.1 0.86 22.10 24.94 38.71 31.83 11.5
Cohort Mean NA 2.2 20.5 4.6 79.5 0.52 23.75 30.53 26.38 28.45 11.1
Cohort Median NA 2.0 20.0 4.8 73.7 0.50 22.63 27.80 29.41 28.10 11.1
Mike Evans 2013.0 2.5 20.0 5.3 107.2 0.92 20.35 30.35 30.00 30.18 16.3
Donte Moncrief 2012.5 2.5 19.5 4.8 73.7 0.62 22.16 27.80 33.33 30.57 11.1
Julio Jones 2009.0 2.0 20.0 3.3 45.8 0.31 22.63 25.17 26.67 25.92 6.4
Dwayne Bowe 2004.0 2.0 20.0 3.9 59.7 0.50 23.35 26.80 29.41 28.10 9.0
Kelley Washington 2002.0 2.0 23.0 5.8 110.8 0.25 30.26 42.51 12.50 27.51 12.6

Yep. In terms of pts/g, DGB is more productive than Moncrief, Julio, and Bowe. In terms of market share, DGB is more productive than all of them—with a lower market share of receptions than all except for Evans. As a producer, he more than stacks up to all these players.

Green-Beckham: The Uber-Stud and #Arbitrage Superstar

We have no way of knowing what DGB would’ve done in 2014—if he would’ve progressed or regressed as a receiver—but based on his rare combination of size and athleticism and what he accomplished in his age-20 second season DGB might very well be the best SEC WR prospect of the last 15 years. He’s at least in the conversation with Evans and Julio—and they were top-10 NFL draft picks and worthy of being No. 1 picks in rookie drafts.

DGB won’t be a top-10 NFL draft pick or a No. 1 rookie pick—but he has a strong chance of playing like one.

In other words . . .

#Arbitrage

———

Matthew Freedman is a writer for RotoViz and is (not) the inspiration for the character in The League who shares his name. He serves as RotoViz’s (un)official ombudsman in the series The Dissenting Costanzan, and he also co-hosts the RotoViz Radio Football Podcast. He is the creator of the Workhorse Metric.

  1. Especially if you’re not a risk-adverse wimp.  (back)
  2. At Oklahoma he was also listed at 225 pounds  (back)
  3. Note that excluded from this group is Matt Jones, because he has no collegiate receiving stats with which to compare DGB’s stats. Also excluded from this group are Allen RobinsonBrian Quick, and Alshon Jeffery. Although Robinson was 220 pounds at the combine, at his pro day he weighed 207 pounds, and he is now 210 pounds with the Jaguars. Likewise, Quick was 220 pounds at the combine, but at his pro day he was 215 pounds, and he is now 218 pounds with the Rams. Finally, even though Jeffery played at 229 pounds at Southern Carolina, and even though he is currently listed at 230 pounds by some sites, at the combine he weighed 216 pounds, at his pro day he was only 213 pounds, and he is now listed at 216 pounds by the Bears. Objectively, I didn’t see how I could include these players in the comparable cohort.  (back)
  4. Note that when possible I have averaged combine and pro day weights and 40 times to simplify.  (back)

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Dynasty Trade Targets 2020 – Wide Receiver Edition

In Dynasty Trade Targets 2020 – Wide Receiver Edition, Curtis Patrick gives away the names of three wide receivers he’s buying right now. As rookie fever sets in across the dynasty community, the offseason trade window also begins to crack open. I’m sharing three of my top dynasty trade targets

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Mecole Hardman Checks Almost Every Single Box as a 2020 Breakout

It was an awesome year for rookie wide receivers. Six rookie wideouts finished with a double-digit best ball win rate, matching the total from the previous four years combined. As such, you can expect guys like A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, and Deebo Samuel to fly off the board

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