Brian Quick: No Risk & All Reward

The inestimable Fantasy Douche recently noted that Brian Quick was on a 1200/12 pace to start the season and is available in the 11th round. Given that Quick is expected to both fully recover and play in pre-season games, this is likely your last chance to acquire Quick in dynasty formats with an injury discount.

The pro-Quick argument argument has been laid out in detail already: Quick should have the best quarterback play he’s had so far in his career, and with Nick Foles recently signed to a two year extension (and apparently looking sharp), some security in that department. Quick has an excellent draft profile and is everything you’re looking for in a late round redraft pick. The only thing that’s been missing to date is a look at Quick’s projections for next year. Utilizing similarity scores, Quick’s projections are respectable, though not mindblowing:

Projection Summary

Standard Half PPR PPR
Low 4 5.1 6.2
Median 6.1 7.7 9.4
High 7.7 9.7 12

However, if you throw out week 8, where Quick played less than a half before suffering a season-ending injury, Quick’s numbers jump dramatically:

Projection Summary

Standard Half PPR PPR
Low 5.3 7.2 9.2
Median 7.9 10.1 12.6
High 10.4 12.8 15.4

Finally, it’s worth mentioning that Quick is in a contract year. This is dynasty interesting more than re-draft interesting (I don’t personally believe that players play better in contract years, something Football Outsiders studied), as Quick could potentially move to a more offensive-minded team next offseason.

Currently, Quick’s dynasty ADP value is 15. In dynasty, I prefer Quick over the following players who are near that value: Darren McFadden, Josh Hill, Percy Harvin (14), Rashad Jennings (15), Pierre Garcon, Derek Carr (16), Kenny Stills, Victor Cruz (19)

The bottom line is, strike quickly 1 before Quick’s value has a chance to rise in pre-season action.

  1. Dammit, I promised myself I wouldn’t do that. Almost got through the whole article without a pun.  (back)
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