revolutionary tools.  groundbreaking articles.  proven results.

Diary of a DFS Novice: DraftKings Week 1

In last week’s post I outlined my general strategy for this season: 12 percent of my bankroll will represent my money-in-play, 80 percent of that in cash games, and 20 percent in GPPs. Of the cash games, 75 percent would be head-to-head, and 25 percent would be 50/50s.

This is the second entry into a season-long series on my journey into daily fantasy football. If you’re looking to give it a try, click here and get a FREE entry into this weeks Millionaire Maker event, along with a 100% deposit bonus. It’s the perfect way to get started.

After spending a considerable amount of time researching, planning and writing about that strategy, I decided to throw it completely out the window for Week 1. Here’s my explanation:

By now you may have had the opportunity to see a DraftKings or FanDuel ad on TV. They’ve been hard to miss. But the goal of them, unsurprisingly, was to attract an insane amount of new members for Week 1. It’s completely plausible that the highest percentage of new players playing on DraftKings for the entire football season will have been in Week 1. So I decided to alter my strategy accordingly, to try and take advantage of the greater amount of lesser-experienced players.

Bankroll Progress

It was a pretty good week. I had positive ROI for my cash games, which helped to curb my losses in GPPs.

Type Entries Wins Win%
Cash Games 75 66 88%
– 50/50 (21) (21) (100%)
– Head-to-head (54) (45) (83%)
GPP 22 3 14%
Total 97 69 71%

Started with: $1,000
Current bankroll: $1,078

  • H2H – I went 45-9 in my contests. I went 7-0 in my highest entry level ($5).
  • 50/50 – I won 100% of my 50/50s (which were all double ups, since I prefer to have the increased payout to counter the increased risk). All of my entries were in the 20th percentile, with the majority being inside the 10th.
  • GPP – Yikes. Proof that poor GPP performance can really hurt your bankroll in a hurry. GPP ROI this week was -$54.

What Went Right

Cash Game Lineup – I had a pretty chalky team (shown below). Through the first half of the ATL/PHI game on Sunday night, my W-L record in H2H’s changed frequently. Luckily Bradford and Matthews woke up in the second half, and helped cap off a final lineup score of 164.94.

Screen Shot 2015-09-15 at 8.59.20 PM

High Exposure Players – Across my six unique lineups, I had Eddie Lacy in three, Jarvis Landry in three, and Chris Ivory in four. All of them delivered big.

What Went Wrong

Not Entering Cash Game Lineup in Milly Maker – I had the lineup in a few smaller GPPs, since it was optimized for scoring, not for win probability. In the future, I’ll toss my cash game lineup in the Milly or some higher entry GPPs to keep my sanity.

Davante Adams – I was high on Adams, both in cash game and GPP lineups. I even picked him in the POTW contest. Yes, he was perhaps one of the chalkiest plays we’ll see all season, but that didn’t make him the wrong play. He lived up to his low price tag, and was the low scorer across a few of my lineups.

The Refs in the ATL/PHI GameThere was a Jordan Matthews touchdown. Except, there wasn’t. I’m not bitter though…

Changes for Week 2

  • I have to be better with my tournament lineups. I mixed it up across multi-entry and single-entry, and had success in neither. My diversion away from my money-in-play strategy to try and take advantage of the expanded pool of less experienced players only works if I’m able to cash in on some GPPs. It was also deflating to see my cash game ROI so negatively impacted by the losses incurred by tournaments.
  • Luckily for all of us, the onslaught of DK commercials seem to be continuing. So I will most likely repeat my Week 1 entry numbers in an attempt to cash in while the competition is softer. Going forward, maybe as early as Week 3, I’ll get in-line with my stated strategy and hold that consistently for the remainder of the season.

Want to try DraftKings? Click here and get a FREE entry into the Millionaire Maker event this week. It’s a great offer for those looking to start their DFS journey.

Interested in FanDuel strategy? Check out my colleague Anthony Amico’s Week 1 post.

For those looking for a DraftKings Lineup Optimizer, check out out Daily Lineup Optimizer app.

recent and related...

in case you missed it...

Putting 2019 in Context: Is the Running Back Dead Zone Dead?

Last July, I wrote an article about the running back dead zone — basically, RBs picked in Rounds 3 through 6 have busted at incredible rates since 2015. That article — along with several others which had similar findings — fundamentally changed my strategy in best ball drafts. Oops.1 Leonard

Read More

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

© 2019 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.