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Week 16 QB Streamers and the Streamer of the Week

Hello to the weekly readers of this article (myself included). Anthony asked me to fill in this week, and I’ll do my best to channel my inner Amico when presenting the streamer options in what for some is the most important streaming week of the season. In DFS my typical setup is to go cheap at QB, and in season long leagues I have rarely drafted a QB before the 10th round so streaming is in my DNA. When surveying the possibilities this week, I was glad to see some exploitable opportunities. Following Amico’s guide, I used a weekly survey of our Rotoviz writers’ waiver wires to see who was available in their leagues as well as mine. 

Last Week

Player Score
Kirk Cousins 38.86
Sam Bradford 22.84
AJ McCarron 11.9

Streamer of the Week: 11.9

SOTW Total: 256.79

Thanks to a light load of passing attempts for AJ McCarron in his first road start, the SOTW didn’t work out the way that Anthony had hoped. Fortunately, the rest of the picks gave readers other productive options in the event they weren’t excited about McCarron. The top scorer on that list was Kirk Cousins. We are getting to the point that it’s starting to become a good idea to pick on the Buffalo passing defense. We may see this come up in my streamer picks.

TEDDY BRIDGEWATER VS NYG

Point Spread: -5.5

Implied Team Total: 25.5

Projected Game Total: 45.5

Opponent DVOA: 27

Median GLSP: 18.8

Coming off an emotional last second loss to the Panthers and having to deal with the OBJ/Norman drama for two straight weeks, the Giants have the feel of a team that is going to come out flat this week. Missing OBJ will obviously be a factor. Had he not been suspended, we would have the opportunity for a high scoring game and the Vikings would need to pass to keep up. Despite the huge stat line last Sunday, Bridgewater only had a total of 20 passing attempts. That’s been a typical expected number of attempts per game for Bridgewater this season. The likelihood of this game being a low scoring, slow-paced game leads me to avoid chasing Bridgewater’s Week 15 points as my SOTW. If you think Eli Manning can engineer enough offense without OBJ to force the Vikings to throw more than 20 times, then he could be worth the gamble.

The trouble with Bridgewater and the Vikings in general is that they play on Sunday night, and if the Packers lose to the Cardinals there is nothing to gain by winning this game as they would then play the Packers in Week 17 for the division anyway. Zimmer has said that he wants to be smart with his injured players. This would mean Adrian Peterson could rest, which would be enough to bump up Bridgewater’s projection. This is definitely a factor with Bridgewater.

KELLEN MOORE @ BUFFALO

Point Spread: +6

Implied Team Total: 18.5

Projected Game Total: 42.5

Opponent DVOA: 18

Median GLSP: 10

Dallas’ lost season continued last week. The one bright spot is that Kellen Moore understood Dez Bryant needs to be fed the ball. I really also like that he’s not trying to build a resume and is just going to fling it on passing downs. As I look at the game for streaming, the low team total is certainly alarming, but when I run through the scenarios of how Dallas will score I come away with only one – and that’s passing. Their running game has been adequate in terms of YPC but can’t be counted on to win a game. My projection for Moore would be closer to 15 points as I could see him throwing one touchdown to Dez. 

Football Outsiders ranks Buffalo as their 29th worst team at applying QB pressure which has likely contributed to their declining DVOA passing defense numbers. If you’re going to run out Kellen Moore on the road, this looks like an acceptable spot to do it. In leagues where there are literally no viable options other than Kellen Moore, at least he has a good matchup.  Our friends at DraftKings have him listed at a salary of $5,000 for the week.

SOTW: RYAN TANNEHILL VS INDY

Point Spread: -1.5

Implied Team Total: 22.8

Projected Game Total: 44.0

Opponent DVOA: 17

Median GLSP: 16.4

Fantasy owners are quite down on Ryan Tannehill because he’s in a cold streak. One thing that I haven’t seen many in the industry notice is that Tannehill has been inefficient QB because he’s missing his key wide receiver. Last week I dug into Rishard Matthews’ advanced statistics because Tannehill was so cheap everywhere and that was one variable that would change soon as Matthews returned from injury. He was a full participant in practice today (Wednesday) so there’s reason for optimism if Tannehill is on your wire. Consider the data on Matthews/Tannehill.

Tannehill AYA 2015

Tannehill Rishard Splits

Last week’s disastrous showing by the Dolphins was due to a number of injuries along the offensive line which caused Tannehill not to have the proper time to go through his reads. While that could cause me to move off of Tannehill, I actually like it for this week. The Dolphins will have had a week to adjust their game plan and set up more roll outs. Tannehill has always been a boom or bust QB, and this week provides two ingredients for the boom.

Also considered: Kirk Cousins, Zach Mettenberger

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