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Jumping Into the Shark Pool with My Floaties On: Week 15

This weekly article was created to serve as a case study for those of you who would like to play in a high stakes league but don’t want to make the jump from a $50 to $1,500 buy-in.

I joined a $250 Fantasy Football Player’s Championship satellite league in order to get a feel for the type of competition that you will see as one works their way up the ranks. I’ll explore the nuances that I find different from the low-stakes leagues I am in and will write about lessons that I’ve learned for that week. Since this is a series that was created for the sake of helping others, please ask questions in the comments sections below and I will address them. Unless you ask me why my team sucks. In that instance, you can go fly a kite. FFPC leagues are Tight End Premium PPR leagues with 20 roster spots.

WEEK 14 RESULTS

Week14_Scoreboard.aspx

 

I wasn’t able to obtain a player-by-player breakdown of my scoring during my Week 14 bye, but the three highlights were: 1.) Losing Thomas Rawls, 2.) Potentially losing Spencer Ware, and 3.) Regaining a healthy Rob Gronkowski. For the purpose of this week’s article, I think it would be more practical to look ahead rather than back. I also don’t want to talk about numbers one and two.

My quarterback streaming game has been strong the past few weeks, but it may finally come to a screeching halt. Ryan Fitzpatrick faces off against the Dallas Cowboys, who are sixth in points allowed to quarterbacks in this scoring format. Much of that is due to the painstakingly slow pace of the Cowboys’ offense, as talked about by John Daigle on this week’s episode of the Numbers Game podcast. Alex Smith has a great matchup against Baltimore, but I really can’t see him airing it out much as seven point favorites against either Matt Schaub or Jimmy Clausen. For now, I’m going to roll with Tyrod Taylor against Washington and hope that he can produce against the NFL’s 22nd ranked passing defense in DVOA.

My running backs went from deep to deep shit pretty quickly. I’m okay with starting Lamar Miller, but Chris Ivory is not at all appealing to me. As mentioned before, the Cowboys pace on offense could limit the amount of plays the Jets run, plus Bilal Powell has been very productive lately, which has cut into Ivory’s production. Even if Spencer Ware is deemed good to go on Sunday, I’m not quite sure if I trust him, even as a flex. I think they will lean on the healthier running back in Charcandrick West, leaving Ware as a low-floor play for punks who have no one else. I admire Ware’s powerful running style and toughness, but I imagine it’s a whole different ball game when a bruiser’s ribs are badly bruised.

Alshon Jeffery and John Brown, you guys are awesome. No worry with these two guys. Love ’em. DaVante Parker on the other hand? Ugh. At this moment he seems like my best option but that isn’t saying much. Duke Johnson has Seattle, and James Starks is unlikely to see much of a workload after the re-emergence of Eddie Lacy. Keshawn Martin‘s usage is very unpredictable solely because Bill Belechick hates us fantasy players and everything we are, Torrey Smith is questionable and has been the definition of boom-or-bust (mostly bust), and Jason Witten plays on an offense with Matt Cassell and an offensive coordinator that has been waiting for one of those sand timers from Scrabble to expire before calling in a play. It’s times like these when I wish I could clone Cairo Santos.

I won’t bore you with my weekly sonnet of love about Gronk and Delanie Walker. I’m actually considering benching Walker in favor of  Ben Watson in another league, but I don’t have the luxury of even considering that in this scenario.

WEEK 14 LESSON LEARNED

I think it is very wise to save some of your FAAB budget for the fantasy playoffs. I think I made a rookie mistake by blowing my last $27 on players that were essentially fliers. Two running back injuries later, I’m sitting here having to think about Torrey Smith.

YOU WORK THAT WIRE, WEEK 15

I CAN’T. I will be getting a big fat lump of coal after waivers clear.

“WHAT HAVE I DONE?” OR “THIS IS AWESOME!”

I’m not going to bitch and complain when I’m preparing for a Week 15 playoff game, but I would be lying if I said I didn’t have a very bad feeling about this game. My opponent is starting Brock Osweiler, but has some players who could go off: Calvin Johnson (at New Orleans) and Mike Evans (sans Vincent Jackson). The odds are not in my favor, but Week 14 was our annual epitome of the term “any given Sunday.” Here’s to hoping that this Sunday is given to you and I.

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