The Rotoviz WR Prospect Sweet 16 Tournament matches the top incoming prospects in a head-to-head March Madness style format. Various Rotoviz writers break down each match-up with the winner moving on to the next round.
Click the links below to take a look at how these prospects got here.
(2) Corey Coleman vs (5) Will Fuller
It’s safe to say this isn’t the match-up many thought we would have in the Finals. Corey Coleman and Will Fuller look like two very similar wide receivers when compared side-by-side. Coleman is a bit bigger and a bit more productive albeit versus lesser competition. What Fuller lacks in size he makes up in speed as the top deep threat. For their college careers, both players managed to have identical careers in terms of market share. Who will walk away the champion?
Scott Smith – Corey Coleman: Corey Coleman is the pick here. As this evaluation process has gone on and I have dug deeper into Coleman, I actually have him as my top WR in this class. Multiple models seem to like Coleman and I think he offers quite a bit more athletically and talent wise in comparison to Fuller. Fuller has been more productive than what I give him credit, for but his numbers by no means scream elite. I am very surprised that Fuller was able to reach it to this point in the tournament. While Coleman being compared to Odell Beckham is a stretch I am not willing to make, he is good enough to be this year’s top choice in this competition.
Anthony Amico – Corey Coleman: Coleman is my top WR in this draft class, and I think he is far better than Fuller, even though I ranked them somewhat close (1 vs 5). I’m expecting that closeness to bear itself out in rookie drafts, meaning you probably aren’t getting a major discount on Fuller. Coleman is this draft’s Odell Beckham/Antonio Brown, a versatile, athletic playmaker who can play both inside and outside. His Football Outsiders Playmaker score of 99.8 is all-time good, behind only Randy Moss, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, and Larry Fitzgerald. He has shown to be proficient as a TD scorer, posting 20 trips to the end-zone in his final season, despite ending his career catching passes from Lynx Hawthorne, the team’s fourth string quarterback. If we prorate his numbers in the seven games top QB Seth Russell played in, Coleman would have finished 2015 with over 1,600 yards and thirty TDs. He should be the 1.01 in every draft, and you can probably get him later than that. He deserves to win this bracket.
Shawn Siegele – Will Fuller: Coleman and Fuller are the two receivers I’m loading up on in early MFL10s. In working independently with WR projection models, my research matches Kevin Cole’s great-not-epic projection for Coleman much more closely than Playmaker’s monster result (probably because Kevin appears to employ a much more effective method for dealing with receiving yardage). That said, he’s a tremendous prospect on a tier (or even two) above Treadwell and Doctson (and Henry), players who often go ahead of him in rookie drafts. Fuller is even more undervalued and has 29 TDs over the last two seasons to Coleman’s 31. If you’re worried about Baylor’s system exaggerating Coleman’s numbers, it might be worth noting that Fuller handily defeats him in TD market share over that time. As Coleman is going to win easily, I don’t mind voting for Fuller.
Matthew Freedman – Corey Coleman: My choice to win the whole bracket was Leonte Carroo, but in his absence I’m going with Coleman. He and Fuller are pretty similar in terms of size and athleticism, but Fuller wasn’t as versatile a playmaker as Coleman. Additionally, by the time Fuller has been drafted and dynasty rookie drafts are here, I don’t think that Fuller will actually be much cheaper than Coleman. If Fuller were available near the top of the second round, I might go with him, but I expect him to end up being selected anywhere from pick 5 to 10 in rookie drafts, and so he doesn’t represent a huge arbitrage opportunity. In the absence of that sizable discount, I’m going with the real thing, not the knockoff.
Justin Winn – Corey Coleman: Both are kind of small… but Coleman is bigger. Both are fast… but Coleman is faster for his size. Both are probable first round picks… but Coleman will likely be drafted earlier. Both have great age-adjusted production… but Coleman’s is better. As Shawn notes, TD scoring is one of the few areas where Fuller seems to be better, as counter intuitive as that may seem. But even there, Coleman’s superior size probably gives him the NFL edge. So do I go with the guy who is similar but cheaper, or the guy who is better? I think Coleman will go somewhere between 1.02 and 1.05 in almost every draft. I think Fuller probably tops out at 1.06. Could Fuller fall to the second round of rookie drafts? Phillip Dorsett, who was somewhat similar, did last year. But Dorsett was a significantly worse prospect in what was a better class overall. I think there’s potential for both of these guys to go later than they should, so ultimately I have to side with Coleman.
Jon Moore – Corey Coleman: I was startled by how similar their careers were in my visualizing WR careers article, but at the end of the day, Coleman is a better receiver, runner, and return man. Coleman is also more athletic and likely to be a higher draft pick. Fuller is a good prospect, but even if their rookie draft differential is 10 picks, Coleman’s upside is just so much higher, in my opinion, that even with the price discrepancy he would be my preference.
Ben Gretch – Corey Coleman: I can’t get over that Football Outsiders Playmaker score, and what it says about Coleman’s potential upside. Fuller is an exciting prospect in his own right, but surprisingly (because it’s the championship) this isn’t particularly close for me.
Corey Coleman takes home the 2016 RotoViz WR Prospect Championship in a route of Will Fuller. The latest version of the Rookie Scouting Index has these two WRs ranked third and fourth respectfully. Coleman seems to be gaining steam as more and more people get turned off by Laquon Treadwell’s athletic profile and Josh Doctson’s age. Corey Coleman reigns as the Champion for 2016, a decision the 79 percent of the readers on Twitter seem to agree with.
Hopefully through this exercise, readers were able to gain a deeper understanding into the evaluation processes of the individual RotoViz writers as well as some valuable insight into the future prospects of the different WRs in this tournament.
Have your own takes on this match-up? Please comment on the message boards or hit us up on Twitter to keep the conversation going.
Check the bracket below for a full look back at the results of this tournament.