The Rotoviz WR Prospect Sweet 16 Tournament matches the top incoming prospects in a head-to-head March Madness style format. Various RotoViz writers break down each match-up with the winner moving on to the next round.
Click on the links below to take a look at the match-ups from the previous round.
(2) Corey Coleman vs (11) Leonte Carroo
Corey Coleman enters this match-up after coming off a tough battle with Tyler Boyd. Ultimately Coleman’s advantages athletically and in the touchdown department pushed him to victory. Coleman’s head-to-head Heatmap with Carroo displays a mixed bag as both prospects have advantages in key metrics. Coleaman is likely to be drafted higher than Carroo in the upcoming NFL draft. Will that be enough to push him ahead to the finals?
Leonte Carroo may be one of the most underrated wide receivers in the NFL draft. With that being said the writers here at RotoViz harbor opinions on Carroo that should open some eyes. Against Coleman, Carroo holds advantages as the bigger WR with a significantly large lead in both career and 2015 market share stats. Will this be enough to keep Carroo’s run going?
Scott Smith – Leonte Carroo: While Coleman has the production and is likely to be the top WR on many NFL team boards, Carroo is my pick. It’s possible that Coleman could be the better player but not a guarantee. I don’t know that there is a talent gap between the two that exceeds the difference in acquisition cost. Carroo seems to check the most boxes while still remaining a solid value. Character issues may drive his price down in the NFL draft and that could end up being a good thing. Carroo seems to have the right mix of what we value here at RotoViz.
Anthony Amico – Leonte Carroo: What seems like would be a tough debate is actually quite straight forward. Coleman is my top WR in this draft, but Carroo is my number two. Since I think their gap in price will exceed that (perhaps greatly depending on your league), I have to take Carroo in this match-up.
Shawn Siegele – Corey Coleman: Unless Tyler Boyd is the second coming of Antonio Brown – which is much more likely than almost anyone believes without being likely – then Coleman is the one player in this draft with a potentially league-altering projection. He caught TD passes on over five percent of Baylor’s attempts last year, numbers which put him with Larry Fitzgerald and Dez Bryant and well above your more garden variety superstar. Carroo has an undervalued production resume, but he played for 4 years in college. (The age/experience question is tricky, but “early declares” appear to fare quite a bit better, even if they’ve redshirted and regardless of age difference. Coleman is five months younger.) Carroo also suffers from having his production misunderstood and his character understood too well (or at least doubted), which looks to cause a draft day plunge. If you take the “discount” here, there’s a strong likelihood you’re talking yourself out the 2016 Amari Cooper and into the 2016 Jaelen Strong (and I say that as someone who owns Strong everywhere and is still buying.)
Matthew Freedman – Leonte Carroo: I kind of can’t believe that I’m picking Carroo over Coleman. I love Coleman. He is very versatile. And I believe that his speed compensates for his size. But Carroo has good size, sufficient athleticism, and was a productivity stud for two straight years. And he and Coleman are both four years removed from high school, so even though Coleman is a junior and Carroo is a senior, they’re pretty similar in terms of experience. Although Coleman’s raw numbers dwarf Carroo’s, the Rutgers receiver more than holds his own from a qualitative perspective — succeeding at Rutgers is a lot harder than being a stud at Baylor — and Carroo’s market share is outstanding. Finally, Carroo will likely be selected lower in the NFL Draft and in dynasty rookie drafts. Carroo might be better than Coleman. If I can get him for cheaper, I have to go with him.
Justin Winn – Corey Coleman: If the NFL Draft didn’t exist, I would be picking Carroo here for sure. But it does. Coleman is pretty much a lock to be a first round pick. It’s probably more likely that Carroo gets drafted in the third round than the first. If Carroo ends up being an early pick in the NFL Draft, he would be my pick here. But draft position will likely be in Coleman’s favor by a large margin, so he gets the nod from me here.
Charles Kleinheksel – Corey Coleman: I really like Carroo and think he’s underrated based on his incredible comps. But Coleman gets the nod based on draft value and his own very solid profile.
Ben Gretch – Leonte Carroo: If it’s my pick and both are on the board, I’m taking Coleman right now. Considering the potential to trade back a few spots and nab Carroo plus something else of value, he’s my choice in this format.
RotoDoc – Corey Coleman: I talked about this on the Numbers Game Podcast last week, but a number of evaluation metrics with predictive ability like both Coleman and Carroo. Both Jon Moore’s Phenom Index and Kevin Cole’s regression modeling have Carroo ahead of Coleman, but barely (two places better in Moore’s, one place better in Cole’s). But the tipping point for me is Football Outsiders’ Playmaker Score. Specifically the Playmaker Rating component, which uses a statistical model to rank players based off many factors, and has Coleman ranked in the 99.8th percentile of all WR prospects. Carroo only comes in at ninth or tenth at Football Outsiders, depending on the metric. Coleman posted a gaudy 74-1363-20 line in an offense that threw only 30 times per game and had decent kick return numbers his first two years – something Jon Moore identified as statistically significant when predicting fantasy production at the WR position, even when accounting for other variables (like production and draft position). Carroo doesn’t compare in production in an offense that threw 28 times per game and has returned only one kick or punt in his career, for a four yard loss.
Eric Braun – Corey Coleman: Both Coleman and Carroo have comparable phenom index numbers on the upper end of the scale so both are great choices. I’ve got to lean to Coleman primarily due to expected draft position.
Jon Moore – Corey Coleman: Carroo is starting to climb in rookie drafts, in some instances going in the top 5, which is almost as high as Coleman. If that’s the case, give me Coleman, who is likely my top prospect in this class. Carroo has a ton going for him, but so does Coleman. I think Coleman is the safer bet.
In a heated contest, Corey Coleman will move on to the finals to take on the winner of Will Fuller versus Pharoh Cooper. Leonte Carroo’s Cinderella run comes to an end, but not without opening some eyes before his exit. The consideration Carroo got in this match-up should have him boosted up many people’s WR rankings. Coleman continues on as the likely favorite in the finals as the highest seed left in the tournament. Analyst seem to love the Coleman’s mix of production, athleticism and favorable ratings across multiple predictive models. Does Coleman have what it takes to be named RotoViz’s top wide receiver?
Have your own takes on this match-up? Please comment on the message boards or hit us up on Twitter to keep the conversation going. Also be on the look out on twitter for your chance to make your vote heard in the Final Four as I run a poll to see who the fans think should advance.