Denver traded up to draft Lynch with the 26th pick in the first round last week, but the former Memphis Tigers QB was viewed by most to be at least a year away. On Friday, however, Elway gave strong indications that timeline could be much shorter while speaking with Denver Sports 760.”Is that going to happen tomorrow? Probably not, but you never know when it can happen,” Elway said. “We think he’s going to be ready quicker than a lot of people think.”
Paxton Lynch is currently being drafted 27th overall in dynasty rookie drafts, which is almost a full round after Jared Goff. That probably makes sense if you think about the pick in terms of which player is more likely to be a long term starter in the NFL. Goff is probably ahead on that criteria by a good amount. But considering that the Rams were rumored to be thinking about extending Jeff Fisher in the offseason, and Fisher’s teams have averaged a finish of 22nd in the league in pass attempts since he became a head coach, you could really be swimming upstream if you use a rookie pick on Goff. Meanwhile Lynch will be playing in a Shanahan/Kubiak offense, which is also somewhat run heavy, but ultimately produces really underrated QB fantasy points.
Consider that during the 2000 season, the combo of Brian Griese and Gus Frerotte totaled 4400 yards passing along with 28 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions. In 2009, Matt Schaub produced a 4700 yard, 29 touchdown, and 15 interception season. Then he went 4300/24/12 the following season.1 In 2004 Jake Plummer finished with 4,000 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions, while also adding 200 yards rushing. It’s true that the seasons mentioned span a number of years, but they also span Gus Frerotte to Jake Plummer. As long as we’re on the topic I should also mention that no Jeff Fisher coached QB has ever had a 4,000 yard season going back to the time that Fisher became a head coach.
In other words, even if Paxton Lynch is a worse real life QB than Goff, he could still outproduce him in fantasy.
Here’s a list of comps from our Box Score Scout, now that we have draft information:
The Lynch comps are not all-world by any means. But there are a lot of players on the list who have been fantasy relevant, including a few guys from the “pedestrian real life QB, serviceable fantasy QB” group.
Note that because Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are 29 this year I haven’t even gotten into the fact that Lynch’s weapons are intriguing. We simply don’t know how long they’ll be around. But of the first round QBs it seems like Lynch has easily the best weapons to start out.
I traded for Colin Kaepernick when it looked like he would either be traded somewhere2 to be the starter, or would simply start for Chip Kelly. I’m fairly nervous about having Kap as my QB2 now that he hasn’t been traded and it sounds like SF is sick of him. So I might be in the market for Paxton Lynch in the late second round, or early third round of rookie drafts. I had Goff ahead of Lynch in my rookie ranks although I would take a mulligan on that today. I wasn’t thinking clearly about the potential that Jared Goff could be a long term Jeff Fisher QB.
If you don’t like Lynch and instead want to simply trade a late second round pick for a proven but unspectacular starting QB, I wouldn’t blame you for that either.