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An Eli-te Fantasy Offense: Projecting the 2016 New York Giants

I was going through my MFL10 portfolio, and I noticed multiple New York Giants at the top of my personal leaderboard. I felt it was only right to share why I am buying in to this offense, lock, stock, and barrel.

Quarterback

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We’re long past the days of mockingly calling Eli Manning “eli-te.” Eli is coming off back-to-back QB10 finishes, which provided a solid return on investment at his ADPs of QB21 and QB13. His ADP has caught up this year, but he is still being priced around his floor of QB10. The continuity of pass-happy Ben McAdoo being promoted to head coach can’t possibly hurt either, as the Giants ranked sixth in pass attempts in 2015. The 310 point projection would have made him QB5 last year.

Eli is a particularly appealing asset for MFL10s because he does tend to have some combustibility to him. Last year, he had four games in single digits but also had four games over 24 points. That is exactly the type of ceiling I want to chase in best ball, especially if you are using Shawn Siegele’s 3-QB strategy where you can afford to take on even more volatility at the position. With a diluted field of RBs and WRs going in the tenth round this year, I have no problem taking Eli at his current cost.

Receivers

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With Eli’s increased output this year, it should come as no surprise that the main beneficiary was Odell Beckham. Beckham only saw a 25.7 percent market share last year, which is considerably below the 30 plus percent Antonio Brown and Julio Jones saw. I gave Beckham a bump to 27 percent, the league’s 75th percentile for WR1s. There’s room to do it considering the Giants lost 104 targets from Rueben Randle and Hakeem Nicks. The result was nearly two extra PPR points per game. He’s an easy top three pick.

The Giants recently confirmed Sterling Shepard as a starter over Victor Cruz. That said, projecting rookies is always a tough thing to do with no sample. While we are still recovering from the 2014 rookie class hangover (including Beckham), we may be starting to remember that rookie WRs don’t tend to be very good. Even projecting Shepard for the starter’s role with a third quartile catch rate, and league average yards per target and TD percentage, he still comes out to be a less efficient Randle. Let that sink in.

With a third WR role as his ceiling, I am not expecting much from Cruz. His knee injury has cost him the Giants last 26 games, and I unfortunately do not have much hope for him this year. At least my projection found room for two end zone salsa dances for old times’ sake.

Tight Ends

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I have already talked enough about Will Tye and Larry Donnell this month. Since we do not know the starter, I am splitting the 19 percent market share I had for the Giants TEs between them. I originally had 15 percent of this going to the far more efficient Tye. It is depressing looking at the sum of their stats and realizing that you shouldn’t be drafting either one of them right now.

Running Backs

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I really like the value in this Giants backfield. While some are hesitant because of the addition of Paul Perkins, I am not sure I see him carving out too much of a role this year without an injury. Perkins has a 15th round ADP, but went undrafted in the recent RotoViz staff MFL10. While an injury is always a possibility with Rashad Jennings, we cannot ignore that McAdoo’s confidence in him seemingly grew throughout the year. Just look at his splits from after the Giants bye last year:

rj1

After the Giants bye, Jennings received an extra 4.5 carries per game and had the added benefit of being put in position to score touchdowns as well. My 173 point projection isn’t that far off what I projected for Thomas Rawls, except you get it at a six-round discount.

I am convinced God created MFL10s just so he would have an excuse to draft Shane Vereen.

sv1

Sure, Vereen didn’t turn out to be the new Tiki Barber when he moved to New York, but the namesake of the “Vereen Game” proved his bipolar fantasy outputs were not just exclusive to being Bill Belichick’s passing down back. You won’t find too many players who had seven games under five points with six more over 14 and three over 20. Sure, he’s seemingly un-startable in typical redrafts, but he is a best baller’s dream.

Vereen was fifth in targets among all RBs last year, which should hold fairly steady considering the passing volume of the Giants offense. If you consider the Giants are relying on a rookie and a guy who has not played in two years to replace Randle, then it honestly wouldn’t even be that surprising to see Vereen see a few more dump offs this year. Plus, if you’re looking for a potential GPP punt strategy, then I will leave you with this:

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