2016’s Most Over and Undervalued WRs Based on Targets

When Fantasy Douche released his 2015 article about targets being the lifeblood of fantasy scoring, it shed light on something that we must all hold dear when figuring out who to draft. Opportunity is everything at the WR position, yet time and time again we find players who are over and undervalued using this simple filter. My mission today is to uncover those pass-catchers.

Methodology

I went into our outstanding RotoViz Screener and ran a quick linear regression on targets in relation to PPR scoring for every WR from 2000 to 2015.

Screenshot (69)

First of all, you can see that the relationship between targets and scoring is even stronger than we previously thought. 93.5 percent of PPR scoring can be explained just through targets. Now I just have to apply this linear model to the staff composite projections to get an expected point value. You could call this an efficiency agnostic view of projecting players.

I then cross-referenced the projected PPR points with 2015 scoring to get an idea of where that player’s projected point value would have ranked last year. By checking the difference between that 2015 rank and 2016 ADP, we can find some obvious values and stay-aways.1

The Undervalued

PLAYERTRGSePPR15 RankADPDiff
Woods, Robert BUF WR83.88139.44974-25
Smith, Torrey SFO WR127.59215.12143-22
Aiken, Kamar BAL WR121.52204.62646-20
Jackson, Vincent TBB WR106.59178.73553-18
Matthews, Rishard TEN WR99.82167.04157-16
Crabtree, Michael OAK WR127.69215.32136-15
Diggs, Stefon MIN WR114.77192.93044-14
Sanu, Mohamed ATL WR99.62166.64155-14
Coleman, Corey CLE WR118.22198.92841-13
Ellington, Bruce SFO WR84.51140.54960-11
Jones, Marvin DET WR119.03200.32737-10

Here are some thoughts on this group:

  • Torrey Smith is the player I am drafting the most right now, and it is easy to see why. The 127 targets we project him for are more reflective of a player that is half of his current ADP.
  • Josh Hermsmeyer showed us why Kamar Aiken may not suck, and he could easily pay off his pedesestrian ADP of WR46. Of course, he could also end up fool’s gold if the likes of Steve Smith and Mike Wallace prove to be healthy and keep Aiken from our target projection.
  • Robert Woods, Michael Crabtree, Vincent Jackson, and Mohamed Sanu are all undervalued WR2’s in their respective offenses. We expect them to receive targets that give them a solid floor above current ADP, and they all have a lot to gain should the team’s top receiving option succumb to injury.
  • Even with just a 100 target projection, Rishard Matthews is a clear value. If he ends up being the Titans’ WR1, he could be a league-winner.
  • I think our projection for Stefon Diggs is conservative, and he’s still a clear value. You must own him this year.
  • Corey Coleman will be the top target for the Browns for at least the first month of the season. He is probably undervalued, and could make for a nice player to draft then trade after a hot start.
  • David Holmes thinks that Marvin Jones could lead the Lions in both yards and TDs, but he probably doesn’t have to do that to beat out his ADP just based on his targets.
  • Targets, Chip Kelly, and an underrated prospect profile. You need to be targeting Bruce Ellington.

The Overvalued

PLAYERTRGSePPR15 RankADPDiff
Gordon, Josh CLE WR65.08106.8664026
Lockett, Tyler SEA WR89.67149.4453015
Coates, Sammie PIT WR65.25107.1644915
Thomas, Michael NOS WR69.45114.4594712
Bryant, Dez DAL WR142.53241.016610

My thoughts on the overvalued:2

  • Josh Gordon is going to be suspended the first four weeks of the season, but even if we divide his expected points over just 12 games, his 8.9 PPG would have ranked 63rd last year.
  • Tyler Lockett profiles as an excellent breakout candidate, but the bottom line is that he probably doesn’t get enough targets to get there. We are projecting him for around 20 more targets than he saw in 2015.
  • There is some reason for caution with Sammie Coates. We know Antonio Brown will get his this year, but if Markus Wheaton, Eli Rogers, and the Pittsburgh TEs can prove worthy of a quality target-load, it may prevent Coates from hitting his breakout.
  • We have never really loved Michael Thomas, and we genuinely don’t see him getting a massive target-load in New Orleans. He’s a best-ball only play for his weekly TD upside.
  • The one elite player on this list is Dez Bryant. He has routinely been able to produce as a top five WR due to his ability to score TDs, but this serves as a reminder that if he loses anything off of his sterling efficiency, he could easily fail to hit value.

Conclusion

Hopefully you enjoyed this simple exercise to help you find some values and stay-aways at the WR position. Below is every WR that we both projected and have an ADP for along with their expected PPR points, 2015 finish, and the difference between that and ADP. See if you can find some more players that you want to target or avoid in 2016!

PLAYERTRGSePPR15 RankADPDiff
Brown, Antonio PIT WR185.9316.1615
Beckham, Odell NYG WR170.96290.2725
Jones, Julio ATL WR183.52312.0633
Green, A.J. CIN WR156.48265.11248
Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR168.1285.3752
Bryant, Dez DAL WR142.53241.016610
Robinson, Allen JAC WR149.26252.61578
Allen, Keenan SDC WR155.37263.21385
Marshall, Brandon NYJ WR156.25264.71293
Evans, Mike TBB WR155.44263.313103
Jeffery, Alshon CHI WR146.09247.115114
Nelson, Jordy GBP WR137.6232.417125
Cooper, Amari OAK WR150.93255.513130
Cooks, Brandin NOS WR136.29230.218144
Hilton, T.Y. IND WR145.3245.815150
Watkins, Sammy BUF WR129.97219.220164
Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR155.94264.21217-5
Landry, Jarvis MIA WR147.04248.81518-3
Cobb, Randall GBP WR123.68208.326197
Tate, Golden DET WR142.98241.71620-4
Maclin, Jeremy KCC WR131.17221.32021-1
Moncrief, Donte IND WR124.36209.526224
Edelman, Julian NEP WR135.04228.01923-4
Benjamin, Kelvin CAR WR118.03198.528244
Decker, Eric NYJ WR125.32211.225250
Baldwin, Doug SEA WR109.49183.735269
Floyd, Michael ARI WR119.41200.927270
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR125.02210.62528-3
Matthews, Jordan PHI WR127.47214.92129-8
Lockett, Tyler SEA WR89.67149.4453015
Brown, John ARI WR110.11184.833312
Parker, DeVante MIA WR115.25193.73032-2
Sanders, Emmanuel DEN WR118.33199.12833-5
Hurns, Allen JAC WR104.47175.035341
White, Kevin CHI WR100.8168.741356
Crabtree, Michael OAK WR127.69215.32136-15
Jones, Marvin DET WR119.03200.32737-10
Shepard, Sterling NYG WR98.49164.741383
Jackson, DeSean WAS WR108.6182.23539-4
Gordon, Josh CLE WR65.08106.8664026
Coleman, Corey CLE WR118.22198.92841-13
Snead, Willie NOS WR104.19174.63542-7
Smith, Torrey SFO WR127.59215.12143-22
Diggs, Stefon MIN WR114.77192.93044-14
Austin, Tavon RAM WR92.68154.64445-1
Aiken, Kamar BAL WR121.52204.62646-20
Thomas, Michael NOS WR69.45114.4594712
Benjamin, Travis SDC WR89.19148.648480
Coates, Sammie PIT WR65.25107.1644915
Treadwell, Laquon MIN WR85.6142.44950-1
Wheaton, Markus PIT WR86.12143.34951-2
Funchess, Devin CAR WR84.84141.04952-3
Jackson, Vincent TBB WR106.59178.73553-18
Dorsett, Phillip IND WR81.71135.65054-4
Sanu, Mohamed ATL WR99.62166.64155-14
Matthews, Rishard TEN WR99.82167.04157-16
Smith, Steve BAL WR68.34112.560582
Boyd, Tyler CIN WR82.09136.35059-9
Ellington, Bruce SFO WR84.51140.54960-11
Doctson, Josh WAS WR29.6945.51136152
Garcon, Pierre WAS WR76.95127.45462-8
Fuller, Will HOU WR79.44131.75263-11
Hogan, Chris NEP WR74.94123.95464-10
Wallace, Mike BAL WR75.35124.65465-11
Williams, Terrance DAL WR77.35128.15466-12
Agholor, Nelson PHI WR78.55130.15467-13
Boldin, Anquan DET WR56.4391.8796811
Perriman, Breshad BAL WR43.1468.8926923
Adams, Davante GBP WR30.4746.91127042
Ginn Jr., Ted CAR WR68.07112.06071-11
Sharpe, Tajae TEN WR46.9175.3917219
Wright, Kendall TEN WR81.34135.05173-22
Woods, Robert BUF WR83.88139.44974-25
Strong, Jaelen HOU WR49.7680.3887513
Cruz, Victor NYG WR60.198.27577-2
Kearse, Jermaine SEA WR65106.76778-11
LaFell, Brandon CIN WR62.89103.07179-8
Crowder, Jamison WAS WR61.37100.47380-7
Carroo, Leonte MIA WR52.9985.986815
Britt, Kenny RAM WR60.6199.17482-8
  1. In the interest of relevance, I excluded the players that were “undervalued” but given a 2015 rank worse than 50 as well as those that were “overvalued” with an ADP worse than 50.  (back)
  2. I found it interesting that there were less overvalued than undervalued players by such a large margin.  (back)

Anthony Amico

Anthony is a football coach who possesses two different mathematics degrees. He uses his combined knowledge in those two fields to attack the fantasy landscape across a variety of formats, including daily fantasy, dynasty, and 2QB. He lives to be contrarian. In addition to RotoViz, Anthony is currently a contributor for Fantasy Insiders, TwoQBs, and numberFire.
What we do
Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

© 2019 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.