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Always Double Down on 14

Earlier today Teddy Bridgewater left Vikings practice with an apparently gruesome injury that will likely make him unavailable for the 2016 season. We really wish him the best in his return to play, so hopefully it’s not as serious as originally thought and he can make a full recovery.

However this news does create some question marks related to Stefon Diggs, who we have been increasingly high on. In fact I drafted Diggs in the seventh round the other night because I thought that the potential to miss out on him would be more costly than whatever negative impact might occur from drafting him too early. If you just compare Diggs’ 2015 season to Michael Floyd or Donte Moncrief, then look at where those players are going in ADP, you start to see that Diggs is a pretty rare commodity in his ADP range. Diggs was better in 2015, is cheaper, and also has the potential to lead his team in the receiving categories.

My first thought related to Diggs is really that it would have been more optimal to have a situation that we know in place. Maybe Shaun Hill will be totally fine for Diggs, but I was comfortable with Diggs’ situation before so I never want to see the status quo upset. Bridgewater was not good from an efficiency standpoint, and the Vikings were already pretty run heavy. So those things seem like they don’t really favor Bridgewater compared to Hill. But target distributions can vary from QB to QB, so that’s why I say I would always prefer the status quo once I’ve decided to target a player.

In this case, it’s not like we know Shaun Hill to be stylistically different than Bridgewater. It’s not like one guy is a gunslinger, and the other is a check-down artist. Per the AYA App they both throw downfield roughly the same amount.

So if I don’t think that the Vikings can really be more run heavy than they would have been with Teddy, and Teddy was also pretty low in efficiency, and I don’t consider Shaun Hill to be stylistically different in a way that would send the targets elsewhere, should I remove Stefon Diggs from my target list? Well maybe I should, but I’m not going to.

However, I will say that I have an upcoming draft where I was thinking about reaching for Diggs in the 6th round. I probably won’t get that aggressive now, and I also think he could fall a little (although you never know on something like that – I thought Coby Fleener would be dropping in August and that hasn’t happened). So I am a little nervous, but I still plan to pull the trigger. Something to keep in mind if you’re nervous is that almost every offense has 500 pass attempts available. Very few offenses go much below that number. Diggs also has very little real competition for targets, so he has some safety for that reason. I’m going to pull the trigger on Diggs in the 8th round and then hope for the best from Shaun Hill.

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