Corey Davis was drafted fifth overall by the Tennessee Titans to be their true No. 1 wide receiver across from Rishard Matthews.
From a fantasy perspective, this hurts Matthews a lot, as it removes him from a target role that netted him a top-12 PPR finish. This also was not an ideal spot for Davis based on Kevin Cole’s opportunity scores.
We’ll get to more of that in a minute. First, let’s take a look at your new Tennessee Titans WR in Davis.
Corey Davis, Western Michigan, 6-3, 209
Final Age: 21.9 Vert: N/A Cone: N/A
Raw and Market Share College Production
Nothing screams consistently elite like a career yardage share of 40 percent and a TD share over 50. To do it on the back of 5,278 yards and 52 TDs is ungodly. These are Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, and Dez Bryant numbers.
Let’s look at his production comps using the Box Score Scout.
Davis is an elite prospect from the lower ranks of college football. Many of his comps have consistently reached the WR1 level in the NFL, and the top three comps have all been elite dynasty assets. Now let’s consider Davis’ short and long-term fantasy value, and discuss how his presence will affect the rest of the Titans skill players.
Davis ranked first overall in our final RotoViz Scouting Index, and also came in as the clear WR1 in our RotoViz pre-draft rookie rankings.
He posted a Phenom Index Score of 2.214, 11th highest in this class. Jon Moore notes that, had he came out of school as a junior, he would have the third-highest PI score. Among 2017, Davis’ score ranks slightly better than John Ross and Chris Godwin, while it is slightly behind Krishawn Hogan and Isaiah Ford.
In my NFL Draft preview of Davis, I noted how good he was against the Power Five in his career.
|Year||Opponent||Rec||Yds||TD||MSRECYD||MSRECTD||Team YD||Team TD|
Despite his small-school pedigree, Davis was great against major competition. If you compared his career market share against the Power Five to the final-year market share of every WR taken in the first round since 2011, Davis would rank sixth out of 26 players.
Overall, Davis is clearly the best WR prospect in this class.
While Matthews was very impressive in his first year with Tennessee, spending a top-five pick on Davis signifies that they expect him to be a major target from day one of his NFL career. Here’s a brief look at what top-five WRs have done in their rookie seasons since 2000.
If Davis is an upper-echelon talent, he has a real shot to be a top-30 WR as a rookie. This is an excellent group to be a part of, with names like Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and A.J. Green on the list. Note that those players were also top comps in the Box Score Scout.
Rookies tend to be overdrafted in re-draft and best-ball formats, and I think Davis makes for a solid avoid there. Especially with the Titans only throwing the ball 504 times in 2016, it is fair to wonder if there will be enough volume to support Davis, Matthews, and Delanie Walker right away. The team would have to show a greater dependency on young stud QB Marcus Mariota for Davis to hit his ceiling. In dynasty rookie drafts, I believe Davis is the clear 1.01.
This is obviously a huge win for Mariota, who now has a receiving group competent enough for him to truly ascend in the fantasy QB ranks. Matthews goes from potential WR1 to a WR3 with WR2 upside. Walker’s role as Mariota’s safety blanket is probably safe, but may lose some volume now that a dominant player is in the mix. If the team truly adopts a more pass-heavy approach, that will have a negative effect on RBs DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry.
Davis is an elite prospect who landed in a situation that is a little more cluttered than we would like. If Tennessee becomes a little more exotic and a little less smash mouth, he could produce in a big way right away. It’s when, not if, Davis becomes a WR1 in my opinion.
Find all of our 2017 NFL draft reaction content here.
The Phenom Index – Jon Moore combines age and market share of receiving yards into a single number. Historical success rates are provided, and scores for the 2017 draft class can be compared to those from previous years.
Jim Kloet provides context, graphing WR college market shares by age.
See for Yourself
- Dominator rating is the average of a player’s market share of receiving yards and market share of receiving touchdowns. In terms of predicting NFL success, any number over 0.50 projects as an NFL superstar or top 10 overall pick value. Scores from 0.45-0.50 are excellent (roughly Top 15 pick value), 0.40-0.45 very good (Top 20 pick), 0.35-0.40 (late first, early second), 0.30-0.35 (second round to third round), below 0.30 (middle round pick). (back)