This is an addendum to two articles published Tuesday about the betting lines for the 2017 NFL Draft.
For Tuesday’s article on running backs, click here.
For Tuesday’s article on quarterbacks and wide receivers, click here.
BetOnline has offered some awfully specific props for the upcoming draft, and they have been updated this morning, giving us a sneak preview of how the fantasy landscape might change tonight.
If you somehow ended up here looking for football analysis of the players expected to be taken, here are links to some of the draft work done on the site throughout the winter:
UPDATES – RUNNING BACKS
Not much has changed with Lousiana State’s Leonard Fournette, except a slight bump in confidence he is drafted in the first four picks.
Rumors the 49ers are considering Fournette at pick two are very difficult to believe.
The odds Fournette is the first RB selected are up to -800 (one to eight), implying it would be stunning if a team decides to take Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey before him. Fournette is also almost even money to be exactly pick four, at +120.
McCaffrey had his prop wildly change to over pick 12.5 being favored mid-week, before coming back to being close to even money at pick 8.5.
There’s a chance he is picked anywhere from right next to Fournette, to right next to Florida State’s Dalvin Cook, somewhere in the range of pick six through 19.
Pick 26.5 didn’t make sense on Tuesday, and I said pick 24.5 would make more sense because that’s where Oakland picks. Since then, Marshawn Lynch has signed an outrageous contract, and Cook’s odds have absolutely skyrocketed. Under pick 23.5, -280 is signaling very, very high confidence that Cook will be selected in the first 23 tonight.
It will be very surprising if he slips past the range of picks 14 through 19, where RB-needy Philadelphia, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Washington, and Tampa Bay all have selections.
Oklahoma’s Joe Mixon has seen his odds go up steadily over the week, from over pick 46.5 being favored, to now under pick 43.5 being favored.
The Eagles hold pick 43, and it’s becoming clearer they are expected to draft a running back with one of their first two picks.
Clemson’s Mike Williams dropping to even money at pick 10.5 signals much lower confidence he goes to Buffalo than on Tuesday.
It’s interesting that Alabama’s O.J. Howard has moved up dramatically to under pick 9.5, -160 from under pick 10.5, -140 on Tuesday, which may be affecting Williams. Howard is the favorite to be exactly pick six at +170, which may indicate the Jets were seen as a player for Williams earlier in the week but aren’t now.
Williams at exactly pick five (held right now by Tennessee) is +300, second only to Ohio State’s Marshon Lattimore at +200, which is the next likeliest place Williams would probably go in the top ten, behind Buffalo.
Three WRs are now heavily favored to go in the first 19 picks, but the prop for which one is taken first is now OFF, indicating the order they get taken could be unexpected.
He is -800 to be the first QB taken, but a heavy underdog to Texas A&M’s Myles Garrett to be selected first overall, with Garrett at -360 and Trubisky at +250.
He’s also +850 to go at exactly pick two, so Chicago may be holding all the cards to the way this draft shakes out at pick three.
Clemson’s Deshaun Watson will almost certainly be the second QB taken, and it’s fairly shocking he is favored to slip past pick 12 held by Cleveland, which suggests their taking Garrett at pick one, and then using pick 12 to trade up for Trubisky, may be true.
I can now update my report: The Browns have spoken with at least 5 teams with picks in the top 8 about possibility of moving up from 12— Michael Silver (@MikeSilver) April 26, 2017
The only exact pick prop on Watson is pick three at +900, and he can be bet on at exactly picks four, five, and six as part of “the field” for +220, +250, and +300, respectively.
This indicates he is one of the more enigmatic players to guess on landing spot, and the idea he will go the Jaguars at pick four, a team that trades with Tennessee at pick five, or the Jets at pick six, is far from guaranteed.
Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes‘ odds have surged, and it’s not surprising that he isn’t expected to make it past the Texans at pick 25.
He will almost certainly be drafted tonight, and the key may be Arizona at pick 13.
Notre Dame’s Deshone Kizer has had his odds absolutely plummet, and is now seen as nearly a lock to fall past pick 30. The idea a team trades into pick 31 or 32 to grab him, however, like the Vikings did for Teddy Bridgewater in 2014, is still very much in play.
The odds for over 3.5 QBs selected in round one is +160, less than half the odds of Kizer under 30.5, signaling a very real possibility that a fourth QB is taken right at the end of the first round tonight.
You can hang out with RotoViz editors RotoDoc and Ben Gretch, and get their live reactions, along with a plethora of guests, to all the draft picks that happen.