Over the last several years, Jon Moore has done a tremendous job advancing our understanding of the intersection of age and market share of receiving production. Today, I’ve enlisted Jim Kloet to help present these visualizations for the 2017 class. In this post, we’re focusing on Tier Two receiver prospects as reflected in the RotoViz Scouting Index. – Shawn Siegele
How important is market share and age?
In Part 1, we talked about the large gaps in age-adjusted production between first-round busts and second-round hits. You’ll be surprised how much older and less productive those first-round misses were.
In creating our Tier Two, we used the post-combine RotoViz Scouting Index. Check out this week’s edition for the latest updates in player movement.
|Player||RSI||Birthday||Age (At NFL Draft)||Career msYD|
|Chris Godwin||124||27-Feb-1996||21 years, 2 months||25.7%|
|Taywan Taylor||117||2-Mar-1995||22 years, 1 month||22.5%|
|ArDarius Stewart||116||8-Dec-1993||23 years, 5 months||20.0%|
|Malachi Dupre||114||12-Oct-1995||21 years, 6 months||24.3%|
|Amara Darboh||105||1-Feb-1994||23 years, 2 months||19.5%|
|K.D. Cannon||103||5-Nov-1995||21 years, 5 months||26.0%|
|Carlos Henderson||101||19-Dec-1994||22 years, 4 months||22.3%|
|Chad Hansen||100||18-Jan-1995||22 years, 3 months||17.7%|
Jim explains why he will be rounding down the player ages to the next full year in his High Level View of the 2017 Class.
Only Taywan Taylor and Chris Godwin had seasons with msYD greater than one standard deviation above the mean for players of that age. Godwin is the clear star of this group with a msYD of 39 percent at an age when his peers were below 20 percent. While his final season yardage numbers were a concern, his career numbers place him just outside the range of an elite prospect.
ArDarius Stewart, Amara Darboh, and Carlos Henderson all saw their msYD increase from below 20 percent to above 20 percent over the course of their careers. We can see the clear red flags for this group by looking at their career trajectories. Each needed an age-22 or age-23 season in order to justify their place on the draft radar. It’s easy to see the contrast with K.D. Cannon who was above the mean in all three seasons, especially his impressive debut and final campaigns.
Malachi Dupre created a big jump in msYD as a second-year player, followed by a slight drop in performance in his third season. When you compare Dupre’s chart to that of Mike Williams, it becomes easier to understand why Dupre earned a few votes in their March Madness matchup. Dupre is also younger, more athletic, and a higher-ranked high school recruit. It’s tempting to claim Dupre’s raw production was too paltry to invoke market share – Devin Funchess comes to mind – but arguably the two biggest rookie bargains of 2015 (Stefon Diggs) and 2016 (Michael Thomas) fit this template.1
Chad Hansen is the first 2017 prospect plotted so far whose msYD dropped from his first year to his second year, but this reflects the fact that he left Idaho State after his first year and walked onto UC Berkeley.
If you’re looking for QB projections, RotoDoc’s groundbreaking QB model explains why Mitchell Trubisky looks like a star and Deshaun Watson a player to avoid. On the RB front, Kevin Cole provides his logistic regression model and demonstrates why D’Onta Foreman is undervalued. Meanwhile, Phil Watkins has you covered at TE, showing that 4 Elite Sleepers Join the 4 Stars to Make This The Best TE Class in Years.
We have a wealth of research on the WR position, if you’re looking for the freakiest of the freaks at the ultra-athletic WR position, take a peak at the 2017 WR Freak Scores. You can take a class-by-class stroll through the career trajectories of 2017 prospects starting with the true juniors, or peruse the final age and production numbers with Moore’s Phenom Index.
- Diggs was a much better overall prospect from a career msYD perspective, but Thomas was very similar to Dupre. (back)