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Adapting our MFL10 Strategies and Draft Volume based on ADP

MFL10 ADP is constantly moving and changing, reacting both to breaking news and how that news is interpreted.

Industry experts are constantly praising or debunking one player or another’s current value. Even a tweet by someone like Evan Silva of Rotoworld who has 128K followers (including pretty much everyone who does MFL10’s) can rapidly alter a player’s draft arc. As someone who is doing on average 8 to 10 MFL10s at a time, keeping tabs on value changes, therefore, becomes not only valuable but crucial to success.

How we draft can change both on a micro and macro level. On a micro level, I am a firm believer that every pick should be savored like a good meal rather than rushed like some take out burger. Last year I fell into the trap of drafting quickly and I have no doubt it affected my profitability. This year I have changed my process and use an ADP tool for every pick. I believe that this diligence is very important for a successful MFL season.

On a macro level, each of our drafts should be adjusted to take into consideration current valuation peaks and valleys . Ideally, we want to be able to find players we like in as many rounds as possible. Being constantly aware of ADP becomes crucial in that pursuit.

I recently reviewed the current ADP situation and drew the conclusion that a Zero Running Back strategy was very viable due to how many great RB options I was finding after the 10th round of drafts. Not only were there a lot of good choices but they were spaced nicely so I could reasonably get 3-5 of my favorites.

But a strange thing happened. I started noticing that many of my favorite choices were starting to go earlier and were not available when I was expecting to find them. To show you how quickly and dramatically this can happen, take a look at the ADP of RBs in May and compare it to the current ADP in the Best Ball ADP App.

 NameMay 1-20 ADPJune 1-15Diff
1Kamara, Alvin122.38125.08-2.7
2Forte, Matt123.11122.011.1
3Hunt, Kareem123.2498.6824.56
4Blount, LeGarrette141.7492.9148.83
5Stewart, Jonathan148.92146.971.95
6White, James149.53121.0728.46
7West, Terrance155.8142.1813.62
8Sproles, Darren156.77142.9513.82
9Williams, Jamaal157.91157.870.04
10Burkhead, Rex169.61187.03-17.42
11Williams, Joe181.18140.9140.27
12Thompson, Chris187.14175.1312.01
13Williams, Jonathan190.65159.131.55
14Washington, DeAndre206.06207.31-1.25
15Vereen, Shane211.88192.4319.45

In just a month, these 15 key RB targets went up on average 14-15 draft spots. And some like Kareem Hunt (one of my favorite values) went up over two full rounds! This drastically changed the value proposition on these players and made the Zero RB strategy far less useful to me than it had when I wrote my original article.

The key point here is because I was using the Best Ball ADP App for every pick, I started noticing these changes as they were happening and was able to quickly adjust my draft strategy.

Roster Construction/Overall draft volume should change based on ADP

This can and should also affect our roster construction and overall draft volume as well. When I was finding so many good choices late in drafts, I was loathe to take a third defense because I always found some skill player I liked more. Mike Beers research on roster construction finds that the winning percentage of teams that rostered two vs three defenses is less than one percent different historically and even less in 2016. Since I am not finding as many players that I think have great value after the 15th round of drafts, I am now taking three defenses more often. This is an example of how roster construction can change while still being within the framework of what is optimal.

Also, the volume of how many entries we purchase at any one time should also be considered relative to what the current landscape is offering. When I wrote the Zero RB article I was also signing up for a lot of drafts to take advantage of what I was seeing. When I noticed that advantage fading I tapered down my overall volume. So not only am I changing my strategies based on ADP, I am also adjusting the total volume of drafts I enter.

Conclusion

ADP is our friend and we should visit with him often. By staying on top of the current landscape we can adjust our strategies to put ourselves in the best position possible to be profitable. To be good at anything takes work. By doing the extra work in a constantly changing marketplace we can give ourselves an advantage over those who don’t.

You can find me on Twitter @TodfromPa. Say hello and tell me what you think. If you follow me I will follow you back. Hear my Run to Daylight Podcast on Blogtalkradio.com or Itunes. Good luck with your games!

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