14 Team Mocker explains why he is overexposed to a basket of players, updated for the end of the MFL10 season.
Part one of this article can be found by clicking here.
Now that MFL10s are closed, and the last of my 45 rosters is complete, these are the players to whom I have the most exposure. Some are holdovers, while some are newcomers since my first update in May.
ROUND 1: WAS A.J. GREEN, NOW SAME (ADP 1.07, 15.6% EXPOSURE)
If the player is the same as it was in May, I will repeat what I said then in italics, then comment if my stance has changed:
I don’t have an issue with any of the top 14 players in current ADP going in the first round, and I only have one more share of A.J. Green than I do of Julio Jones or Odell Beckham, which is largely just the result of where I’m drafting.
I still only have one more share of Green than Jones or Beckham (or LeSean McCoy) and have the same number of shares of Mike Evans.
If forced to choose between the two I prefer Green, as I think we saw Evans’ ceiling last season and it’s not particularly close to Green’s.
Limiting exposure in the very top rounds is important, since a costly asset that busts cripples a portfolio. I stress not being overconfident in your predictions. Fantasy football is inherently very unpredictable.
My list of players I am comfortable taking in the first round is down to 11 from 14, with Brandin Cooks now in the group, in place of Ezekiel Elliott, Devonta Freeman, and especially T.Y. Hilton and Melvin Gordon, who scare the piss out of me.
ROUND 2: WAS LAMAR MILLER, NOW KEENAN ALLEN OR ALLEN ROBINSON (ADP 3.05 & 3.12, 24.4% EXPOSURE)
In the second round, I have seven shares of Jordan Howard and six of Todd Gurley, but I have the most shares of any player in Lamar Miller, and 11 each of Keenan Allen and Allen Robinson, who all have ADPs in the third round.
Allen now has a slightly higher ADP than Miller, so they’re swapping from where they were in May.
My argument last year for Allen leading the league in targets is the same as this season. His ACL tear was Week 1, making his surgery much earlier and his recovery time much longer than a lot of players who suffer serious injury. Of course, I was way overexposed to Jamaal Charles last year, so maybe I should be less hesitant to bank on the success of ACL recoveries.
Robinson was the WR6 the season before last, at 22 years old, in the same exact situation he is now. His ADP of WR19 is further from that than the nine spots it is away from where he finished last year, in a near worst-case scenario season.
ROUND 3: WAS SAMMY WATKINS OR KEENAN ALLEN, NOW LAMAR MILLER (ADP 3.06, 28.9% EXPOSURE)
With four shares of Lamar Miller, I’m reaching for him just a bit at an average pick of 2.12, two spots earlier than ADP. Obviously, if you get Green at the end of the first round, you would either have to reach substantially for Miller at the top of the second or have him fall to you at the end of the third.
Miller’s usage across all game situations, his gaudy contract, and Houston’s strong defense, coupled with their weak division, all make me confident in his potential to be one of, if not the, most productive workhorses this season. Overall RB1 does not seem that far-fetched, even with a mobile, rookie QB (neither is good for an RB), and the addition of D’Onta Foreman being much more formidable competition than the diminutive Tyler Ervin, and abysmally terrible Alfred Blue.
Foreman honestly worries me, especially if the team struggles, which seems likely as they will try to switch from Tom Savage to DeShaun Watson at some point.
Miller is one of my two highest-owned players, and it’s a risky bet at an ADP so high; but, I’ll still be targeting him in my weekly management redraft leagues in the third round, using a One-RB strategy (rather than Zero RB). Miller is also an anchor for me on multiple dynasty teams, which is to say this will end disastrously, so preemptive congratulations to all the Foreman owners.
ROUND 4: WAS MICHAEL CRABTREE, NOW CARLOS HYDE (ADP 4.08, 26.7% EXPOSURE)
With five Michael Crabtree shares in my first 15 drafts, I’ve only added two more across the following 30, but still love his price in the fourth round.
I’ve been making a case for Hyde all year and am fully invested across all formats heading into Week 1.
ROUND 5: WAS STEFON DIGGS, NOW JORDAN REED (ADP 5.03, 22.2% EXPOSURE)
I only have one more share of Jordan Reed than I do Stefon Diggs, and love both in the fifth round, though Diggs’ ADP is now 4.12.
With the most PPG in each of the last two seasons for all tight ends, Reed seems like a no-brainer at his price over the more expensive Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, and especially Greg Olsen.
ROUND 6: WAS C.J. ANDERSON, NOW SAME (ADP 5.10, 26.7% EXPOSURE)
The addition of (Jamaal) Charles post-draft on a 1-year contract, structured in a way that makes it questionable if he even makes the 53-man roster, has Anderson’s ADP drifting lower, which is a gift.
I believe in Anderson as strongly as ever, writing about why earlier this month. He is tied for my second-most owned RB along with Hyde, behind only Miller.
With Devontae Booker out for an extended period, Henderson has intrigued in the preseason.
ROUND 7: WAS TIGHT END, NOW TYLER EIFERT (ADP 6.11, 26.7% EXPOSURE)
Tyler Eifert (6.04), Jimmy Graham (7.05), Delanie Walker (8.06), and Zach Ertz (8.07), all represent great value in the seventh round, even if I already own Olsen or Reed.
Both Gronkowski and Kelce look overpriced in a broad sense and don’t fit my strategy well.
Tight end drops off sharply after this tier, and other than Jared Cook and Charles Clay, there is a real dearth of reliable late round options to give me a trio I feel confident in both their ability to produce and their job security.
I finished with 12 shares of Eifert, 11 each of Walker and Eric Ebron, and nine each of Ertz, Cook, and Clay.
Ebron is usually the last TE left on the board that I trust for both role and job security.
Missing three games, Ebron was the overall TE14 last season with only one TD on 85 targets. That’s a 16-game pace of 105 targets, which would have been sixth-most for all TEs last season, and Anquan Boldin vacates 95 targets and eight receiving touchdowns.
Ebron has yet to have a 16-game campaign in his three-year career, but he also just turned 24-years old, and the Lions badly need their top-10 draft pick investment to pay off, which the career arc of TEs say could very well happen this season.
It makes sense that I didn’t end up with much Graham as he became the most expensive out of a group that I saw as very similar.
Eifert has 18 TDs in his last 21 games played, and nothing about the personnel in Cincinnati suggests his work is in jeopardy. Walker’s ADP has barely fallen despite the additions of Eric Decker and Corey Davis, and Ertz makes more sense at the same price, as does Eifert a round sooner.
Pairing one of these tight ends with Reed, and then adding Clay late, is my ideal TE trio.
ROUND 8: WAS DOUG MARTIN, NOW FRANK GORE (ADP 8.05, 24.4% EXPOSURE)
I may have an issue with eleven shares of Frank Gore.
Now that Andrew Luck is doubtful to play Week 1, things aren’t ideal for Gore. This is particularly worrisome because it’s the part of the season in which (old) workhorse RBs thrive, making him naturally undervalued in formats without playoffs.
I’m not particularly enamored with him at this point, but at least he wasn’t expensive, and hopefully he has enough RB1 and RB2 weeks to return a profit.
ROUND 9: WAS JEREMY MACLIN, NOW BEN ROETHLISBERGER (ADP 9.03, 20% EXPOSURE)
Jeremy Maclin was traded to the Ravens, and I pivoted hard to Mike Wallace (more on that in a moment).
This is my approach to QBs, something that is admittedly a weak point for me.
I am trying hard not to overexpose myself at QB, and am fine taking any number of them in this range, or the next few rounds, that I feel have unquestioned job security outside of injury, including Derek Carr, Ben Roethlisberger, Andy Dalton, Kirk Cousins, Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford, Blake Bortles, Philip Rivers, Ryan Tannehill, Joe Flacco, and Alex Smith.
I am scared shirtless to go past somewhere around Round 14 without having my two QBs.
Smith is no longer on that list as I fear Patrick Mahomes could be likely to start this season. Tannehill is obviously no longer there, and Bortles is very difficult to trust as well. Two names I’m surprised I didn’t list are Sam Bradford and Carson Palmer.
Either way, I broke my overexposure rule to chase eight games of this, so expect Roethlisberger to suffer organ failure sometime around Week 3.
ROUND 10: WAS ERIC EBRON, NOW MIKE WALLACE (ADP 11.02, 26.7% EXPOSURE)
There is no player I’m comfortable reaching for so much earlier than their ADP as Wallace.
ROUND 11: WAS MARCUS MARIOTA OR TYROD TAYLOR, NOW QB2
Tyrod Taylor intrigues me in this format because of his rushing, and how it causes his weekly ceiling to spike.
Colin Kaepernick led all QBs in rushing yards-per-game last season with 39.0, but Taylor was right behind him with 38.7, way ahead of number three Cam Newton‘s 23.9. Taylor also led all QBs in 2015 in rushing yards-per-game, and his ten rushing TDs the last two seasons combined are second among QBs to only Newton.
Taylor, Andy Dalton, and Matt Stafford are all my second-most owned QB, but only at six shares each. The effort to avoid overexposure seems successful, outside of Roethlisberger.
ROUND 12: WAS TYROD TAYLOR, NOW RISHARD MATTHEWS (ADP 11.06, 20% EXPOSURE)
ROUND 13: WAS GIOVANI BERNARD, NOW MATT FORTE (ADP 11.10, 24.4% EXPOSURE)
One arbitrage instead (of Doug Martin) is Matt Forte, whose ADP continues to drift lower, currently at 11.07, despite the only acquisition by the Jets in draft or free agency being rookie Elijah McGuire in the sixth round.
I’m comfortable reaching for Forte by a round or two and expect his ADP to rise at some point similar to Martin’s. Forte was RB21 last season and had never finished lower than RB12 in eight seasons before that. His current ADP is RB44.
Well, that certainly never happened, and I managed to avoid going crazy on Forte exposure despite his ADP inexplicably continuing to trend downward. Forte is a player I am heavily exposed to across all formats, and am really at a loss to understand what I’m missing that everyone else sees. (It doesn’t usually turn out well for me with those players, for what it’s worth.)
For further reading, Exploiting Recency Bias: Matt Forte Is One Of The Best Ever
ROUND 14: WAS ROBERT WOODS OR TAVON AUSTIN, NOW KEVIN WHITE (ADP 12.08, 20% EXPOSURE)
It’s not skill to be holding so much Kevin White in the wake of Cameron Meredith‘s injury, but hopefully he can make the most out of it.
The idea was always that he was a high draft capital athletic freak who would be force fed the ball until he thoroughly proved he sucked beyond repair, which is true regardless of what happened to Meredith.
ROUND 15: WAS TIGHT END THREE, NOW KENNY STILLS (ADP 15.01, 28.9% EXPOSURE)
Stills is a high variance all star, the perfect late round WR in this format, and tied with Miller for my most owned player.
ROUND 16: WAS DEVIN FUNCHESS, NOW CHARLES CLAY (ADP 16.06, 20% EXPOSURE)
As mentioned before, I like (Jared) Cook and (Charles) Clay as my third TE now, and Austin Hooper is another.
After Watkins was traded away and Boldin retired, Clay is the guy I want.
ROUNDS 17, 18, 19, AND 20: WAS TWO DEFENSES, TRAVIS BENJAMIN/BRANDON LAFELL, AND SHANE VEREEN/CHRIS THOMPSON, NOW REPLACE BENJAMIN WITH CHRIS CONLEY, REST SAME
Brandon LaFell (nine shares) and Chris Conley (eight shares; another part of the Maclin trade pivot) have been consistent late round picks since the beginning of the summer.
At seven shares each of Shane Vereen and Chris Thompson, I started having to reach for whichever one was left in the 15th round, as they got expensive. I will regret not having more Darren Sproles, and probably Rex Burkhead, too.
Here’s what a 2QB/6RB/7WR/3TE/2DEF roster would look like, based on my most-owned players:
- Ben Roethlisberger and Andy Dalton, Matt Stafford, or Tyrod Taylor
- Lamar Miller, Carlos Hyde, C.J. Anderson, Frank Gore, Matt Forte, and Shane Vereen or Chris Thompson.
- A.J. Green, Keenan Allen or Allen Robinson, Mike Wallace, Rishard Matthews, Kenny Stills, Kevin White, and Brandon LaFell or Chris Conley.
- Jordan Reed, Tyler Eifert, and Charles Clay.