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PGA DFS Projections and Picks: The CJ Cup

Welcome to my PGA DFS machine learning model for the CJ Cup at Nine Bridges. This is the first PGA Tour event at Nine Bridges. Although, Nine Bridges has hosted some LPGA tournaments.

The course has four par fives and is roughly 7,200 yards which is a little on the short side for a par 72. I’m working with limited data, but I expect low scores and more birdies than at a typical PGA event. For more on the course and key stats check out Matt Dulcan’s weekly article. The field consists of 78 golfers and has no cut, so probabilities to make the cut have been eliminated from the projections.

CJ Cup Projections

These projections are generated using a combination of statistical simulation and machine learning algorithms. More than 40 factors go into the model, including long-term normalized round score, driving accuracy, driving distance, the proximity of approach shots, temperature and wind velocity, to name a few. Three columns: ToPar, DK.Pts and Win%, are generated using three separate algorithms which all draw from the same underlying data.

Explanation of each column:

  • Top10% is the probability that the player will finish in the top ten.
  • DK.Pts is the average number of DraftKings points that the player will score.
  • DK.Sal is the golfer’s DraftKings salary.
  • DK.Value is the number of fantasy points per dollar of salary.

If you prefer to work with a Google spreadsheet, click here.

NameTop10%DK.PtsDK.SalDK.Val
Jason Day28111.81060010.54
Paul Casey33.1110.5116009.53
Adam Scott38.9109.5850012.88
Justin Thomas45.1109.2121009.03
Xander Schauffele26.5107.3980010.95
Stewart Cink33.4102.6740013.87
Tony Finau18.4100.9102009.89
Charl Schwartzel22.4100.3760013.2
J.B. Holmes8.299.5840011.84
Thomas Pieters2399.3760013.07
Russell Henley2299.1880011.27
Luke List2498.6760012.98
Keegan Bradley1598.2910010.79
Lucas Glover15.498.1780012.57
Gary Woodland21.497.7830011.77
Graham DeLaet24.997.3750012.98
Jhonattan Vegas9.697.2750012.96
Daniel Berger3296.6870011.11
Cameron Smith10.796.4890010.83
Ollie Schniederjans14.795.1860011.06
James Hahn14.894.9710013.36
Harold Varner11.494.4720013.11
Byeong-Hun An12.294810011.61
Grayson Murray8.693.2780011.95
Bud Cauley22.992.7740012.52
Hudson Swafford11.992.6730012.69
Patrick Reed15.892.695009.75
Branden Grace17.292.4810011.41
Sung-Hoon Kang1992.1820011.23
Rafael Cabrera Bello23.791.9900010.21
Emiliano Grillo20.991.8730012.58
Pat Perez26.49194009.68
Marc Leishman27.590.799009.16
Scott Brown890690013.05
Jamie Lovemark1788.6750011.82
Nick Taylor12.188.4740011.95
Danny Lee9.688740011.89
Morgan Hoffmann987.5730011.99
Chez Reavie12.587.2790011.04
Robert Streb3.487680012.8
Jim Herman6.486.9690012.6
Kyle Stanley13.586.9720012.07
Cheng Tsung Pan12.285710011.98
Anirban Lahiri1484.992009.23
Adam Hadwin8.884.1700012.02
Kevin Na2183.3800010.42
Graeme McDowell583690012.04
Ian Poulter24.183750011.07
Charles Howell III882.9710011.68
Chris Stroud5.181.7720011.35
Brian Harman9.781.2770010.55
K.J. Choi7.380.9730011.09
Seung-Yul Noh3.780.8710011.38
Si Woo Kim4.979.4740010.73
Patrick Rodgers5.779.3720011.01
Jeunghun Wang5.978.2700011.17
Chris Kirk10.777.2750010.29
Kevin Tway8.876.9700010.99
Chad Campbell12.776.9710010.83
Cody Gribble375.6690010.96
Kelly Kraft7.775.2690010.9
Camilo Villegas4.674710010.43
Jonas Blixt3.769.5680010.22
Wesley Bryan3.166.470009.49
Sang-Moon Bae1.96669009.57
Kyoung-Hoon Lee3.765.370009.34
Kyung Tae Kim1.863.573008.7
Ryan Ruffels5.861.973008.48
Rod Pampling4.559.672008.28
Jinho Choi2.15668008.23

CJ Cup Picks

Jason Day ($10,600) – Day struggled at various times throughout the 2016-2017 season, but he finished strong with a top-25 finish in each of his last six events. His form seems to have returned. He projects to score the most fantasy points according to my model and is a better value than all other golfers priced at $10,000 and above.

Adam Scott ($8,500) – Scott has the third-best long term form of all golfers in the field. He is an elite ball striker who is long off the tee, which should help him reach many of the par fives in two. He’s a bargain at $8,500.

Luke List ($7,600) – List is generally a bit of a risky play in DFS golf. His distance off the tee helps him make a lot of birdies, but when he misses the fairway, he tends to make a lot of bogies too. Given that there is no cut this week and there are four par fives on this course, I think the risk with List is lower than normal and the upside is a bit higher.

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