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Diary of High Stakes Sophomores: Trust The Math

Pete Overzet and Pat Kerrane are sharing their experiences playing high stakes fantasy football in the FFPC Main Event with a weekly article. In this edition, they crunch the numbers to make the playoffs.

It all comes down to this. Week 11. The final week in the FFPC Main Event regular season before the two week divisional playoffs.

We won last week to move to a very not respectable 3-7 on the season, which is currently good for 10th place. But as we’ve said all along, we were never going to get into the playoffs based on our record. Since our slow start we’ve been gunning for that fourth and final wild card spot that goes to the remaining teams with the most points scored. And with one week left to qualify, we know exactly what we are up against.

The Playoff Landscape

Heading into Week 11, these are the current playoff standings:

1 seed: Lion’s Roar (by record: 7-3)
2 seed: Fantasy ManiacJC (by points: 1344.90)
3 seed: Aces in the Hole (by record: 7-3)
4 seed: WILD CARD (highest remaining points)

And here are the six teams in the running for that final wild card spot:

1309.15 Off The Grid
1281 Chicago Gator
1275.05 Bassin Assasins
1271.95 Gamblers Anonymous
1247.95 Dr. J & Mr. High
1231.45 Sid Vicious
1226.05 FANTASYLAND

The Math

**For the remainder of this article, please imagine me writing out math on a Harvard dorm room window. Thanks.**

Now as you can see, the math indicates that we are exactly 83.1 points behind Off The Grid for the final wild card spot. That is the ground we have to cover in Week 11. I heard you gasp. Don’t gasp.

I also took a look at Off The Grid’s last five weeks of scoring (122, 91, 130, 140, 143) to give us a baseline of what we can expect from them in Week 11.

**Imagine me now with a furrowed brow, fingers stroking my chin, doing big ‘ol calculations in my beautiful mind.**

My calculations put them at 125.2 average over that time. But for the sake of this exercise, we should probably throw out that Week 7 clunker, and work with the 137.6666666666667 average over the past three weeks.

That means, when you tabulate the 137.6666666666667 points we expect them to score in Week 11 with the 83.1 deficit, we need to score roughly 220.7666666666667 points to make it into the playoffs.

The Road To The Playoffs

I know what you’re thinking and, yes, it’s going to be incredible when we pull it off…Oh, that wasn’t what you were thinking? You were thinking that the most we’ve scored all season was 170.45 and that we have our RB1 (Carlos Hyde) and our TE1 (Austin Seferian-Jenkins) on bye this week and that it’s wildly unrealistic for us to make the playoffs and why am I wasting your time with this exercise?

Oh, ye strawman of little faith. I’m going to demonstrate to you right now exactly how we get to 220.7666666666667 this week.

**Now imagine me on stage giving a TED Talk. Actually, no. Imagine me in the Pope’s studio window at the Vatican overlooking St. Peter’s Square.**

Hear ye, hear ye. Here is how Fantasyland crashes the playoffs…

QB Kirk Cousins (32.3 points): Captain Kirk steers the starship Fantasyland to the final playoff frontier with four total touchdowns (three passing and one rushing) against the Saints–a dream that became a reality and spread throughout the stars.

RB Kenyan Drake (20.6 points): Drake reminds us that he’s the best we’ve ever had as he rumbles to a 100-yard, one-TD game against the reeling Buccaneers. After the game, he tells reporters, “Started from the bottom now we’re here.”

RB Alvin Kamara (21.5 points): Alvin & the Chipmunks continue to dominate opposing defenses as Kamara sneaks and squeaks his way through tiny crevices on the Redskins defensive line, catching nine balls and chipping in a TD.

WR Amari Cooper (44 points): Montezuma’s Revenge? How about Cooper’s Revenge. Amari heads to Mexico City and exactly replicates his Week 7 performance (11 catches, 210 yards, 2 TDs) against the hapless Patriots secondary in one of the more bizarre statistical anomalies the league has ever seen. Yo soy fiesta.

WR Jamison Crowder (19.5 points): Crowder locks Ryan Grant in the training room closet and proceeds to rack up 15 targets, eight catches, and a TD.

FLEX Rex Burkhead (20.7 points): Sexy Rexy continues his ascension up the Patriots running back totem pole while flexing his all-purpose skill set to the tune of 100 total yards and a TD.

FLEX Tevin Coleman (17.5 points): With Devonta Freeman on the sideline, Coleman is the true “free man” as he sheds the handcuffs and shreds the Seahawks defense on 25 total touches.

TE O.J. Howard (16.3 points): Subbing in for the permanently injured Jordan Reed, Howard does serviceable tight end things en route to a 60-yard, one-TD game.

K Josh Lambo (15): The Italian brand and luxury sports kicker drills four field goals against the winless Browns.

DEF Arizona Cardinals (14.2): The Cards pick apart Pocket Sloth Tom Savage in a suffocating performance.

Projected Total: 221.16 points

See, I told you. It’s a lock.

***

By the way, this guy I’m loosely affiliated with named Pete Manzinelli posted a video from his time at the FFPC Main Event drafts in September if you want to get a taste of the high stakes atmosphere.

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