QB streaming advice for Week 16 and wrap-up of the 2017 fantasy football season.
Week 15 QB Streaming Recap
I won’t get too nostalgic, but after enduring what seemed like a never ending off-season of premature analysis and one too many MFL10s to help fill the void of fantasy-less months, it’s unnerving that we are back here again. That is, once we win a ship.
Hopefully, Russell Wilson didn’t lead you to the playoffs only to mess the bed when you needed him most (I’m not bitter, you’re bitter) and the Wentz-less owners managed to find success in the streaming options available. My streaming picks collectively put up their best performance thus far this season, even the one I told you to avoid. Nick Foles started where Carson Wentz left off, Blake Bortles secured the Jags their first playoff spot in 10-years, and Jimmy Garoppolo added another notch to his consecutive win streak.
It was a high scoring week for some (Garoppolo is QB17 with just six points less than QB2 Foles) and a low scoring game for those you wouldn’t expect (still looking at you: Wilson). It will be interesting to see how Garoppolo fares against the Jags this week, but not interesting enough to test your luck with him leading your championship.
|Status||QB||FanDuel Points||QB Rank|
|1QB Option 1||Blake Bortles||25||5|
|1QB Option 2||Jimmy Garoppolo||19.1||17|
|2QB Option 1||Nick Foles||25.5||2|
Cumulative 2017 Fantasy Season Results
Though I had some highs and lows, as I evaluate my performance as a whole this streaming season I can confidently say my picks stayed up to par with most drafted quarterbacks. I also seemed to excel more in my top pick for both 1QB and 2QB formats rather than my second pick in each. I could have also looked at cumulative QB rankings, but that would done a great disservice to Deshaun Watson.
|1QB Option 1||20.1|
|1QB Option 2||15.9|
|2QB Option 1||19.78|
|2QB Option 2||13.56|
Overall, it was a fun season full of surprising performances that always found a way to remind us of the ever-true Any Given Sunday mentality. And now comes our final streaming picks for the 2017-18 fantasy football season.
Game Level Similarity Projections are taken from Dave Caban’s model. The Player Projection Distributions are taken from the site’s GLSP app. These are great sources to cross-check for the range of likely QB outcomes.
Week 16 QB Streaming Recommendations
With so many streamers putting up such quality performances, and so many quality QBs falling short, we find ourselves with quite a few streaming options that fit the criteria of being owned in under 60 percent of ESPN leagues.
- Blake Bortles
- Marcus Mariota
- Jameis Winston
- Andy Dalton
- Eli Manning
- Jacoby Brissett
- Jay Cutler
- Blaine Gabbert
- DeShone Kizer
- Mitchell Trubisky
- Brett Hundley
- Brock Osweiler
- TJ Yates
- Bryce Petty
Yup, quite a few streaming options. And these leave out the three I’m about to analyze more thoroughly.
Of this list, Blake Bortles, Jameis Winston, Brock Osweiler, and yes, even Eli Manning, were all top-10 QBs last week and have reasonably favorable matchups in Week 16. You’ll note Case Keenum is missing from this list, because he is finally (after 15 weeks) over the 60 percent ownership threshold (at 67%).
Out of the bunch, if there’s a choice, you should absolutely be streaming Bortles. Regardless of the fact that he’s playing the 49ers, who give up the fifth-most points to quarterbacks, Bortles has thrown for 2-plus touchdowns in each of the last three games. He helped lead some fantasy owners to the championship last week, and he has the offense to finish what he started.
Here are my additional picks for less obvious options you might be on the fence about.
QB Streaming Advice for Week 16
QB Option 1: Nick Foles vs. Raiders
Game-Level Similarity Projection: 12.1*
FanDuel Salary: $7,300
It’s still too early to say if the Eagles will be missing Carson Wentz come January. After all, they won’t be up against defenses like the Giants. But it’s hard to dispute Foles’ 237 yards and four touchdowns, to four different pass catchers, in his first start in 13 months. Though most expected Foles would succeed, no one thought he’d keep pace with Wentz’s numbers.
While it’s not likely we’ll see the same performance this Sunday against the Raiders, who have held three of the last four QBs to one or fewer TD passes, Foles proved he has the poise, pocket presence, and offensive weapons to keep the Eagles trucking forward to a Super Bowl. There is no reason you can’t also rely on him to lead you to your own championship win.
*GLSP Projections for Nick Foles may be skewed based on the limited historical data
QB Option 2: Tyrod Taylor vs. New England
Game-Level Similarity Projection: 16.8
FanDuel Salary: $7,500
I’m not sure why there’s been limited discussion on Tyrod Taylor for Week 16, but I’ve been a Taylor fan since before the season started, and I’m not stopping now. It’s been a tumultuous season for Taylor to say the least, but he still has a shot at leading this Buffalo team into the playoffs – something that seemed completely out of the realm of possibility going into this season. Though New England no longer has the lackadaisical defense they started the season with, they have still given up the sixth-most fantasy points to QBs. I see this matchup going one of two ways – New England takes an early lead to force Taylor to sling the ball repeatedly, or the defense quickly crumbles like they did in Week 14 (allowing Jay Cutler to throw three TDs).
It would be unjust to determine Taylor’s start based on his last performance against New England, as he left the game with a knee injury. Now back from that injury, he’s coming off a 22-point fantasy day against the Dolphins, where he added 42 yards and a score on the ground. He needs to continue that production to keep Buffalo’s playoff chances alive, and he’s a reliable pick to keep yours alive too.
QB Option 2: Joe Flacco vs. Colts
Game-Level Similarity Projection: 16.1
FanDuel Salary: $7,400
Ok, I spoke too soon. One week after saying to avoid Flacco, I’m saying he’s startable in a championship game. This start is mostly targeted towards @WBFFLchief, who presented his championship options in this week’s waiver advice message board. (If you’re reading this, this is certainly your best option.)
In case you were wondering how Brock Osweiler ended up as QB6 last week, it was largely due to his matchup against an exposed and depleted Colts secondary, after Osweiler entered the game for an injured Trevor Siemian. Osweiler, off the bench, QB6. Something tells me Flacco can put up similar numbers against the Colts, who have allowed 289 passing yards per game since Week 8.
Flacco not only has an ideal matchup, but he has had significantly productive performances in December. He’s had over 270 passing yards and a total of five TDs in his last three games, scoring at least 20 fantasy points in each. If you’re in the championship and have no choice but to evaluate streamers, Flacco should provide a high floor.