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2018 NFL Draft Prospect – Dallas Goedert

A mega producer for the South Dakota Jackrabbits, tight end Dallas Goedert is one of the most intriguing prospects in the 2018 draft class.

There is no arguing with the production numbers. His 1,111 yards in 2017 gave him a second-straight 1,000 yard season and accounted for 30.3 percent of the team’s total receiving yards. He also found the end zone seven times in 2017, taking his career tally to 21, the fifth-most in school history. Goedert’s 2,988 receiving yards are the fourth most all time for the Jackrabbits, while only two players have caught more passes than his 198 over the last four years.

If his 72 receptions in 2017 don’t impress you, then you should consider that he had 92 grabs a year earlier. Still, it’s hard not to get excited about his 2017 numbers. Goedert had at least five catches in eight games and went over 100 receiving yards in six of them. From a counting stats point of view, he is simply a monster. However, one factor that must be brought up is the level of the competition Goedert was facing. The Jackrabbits were hardly going up against top-flight opposition, and there must be a concern that Goedert simply used his 6-foot-4, 260-pound frame to bully far inferior opponents. If this is the case, we could have another Adam Shaheen situation, a year after the Bears spent a second-round pick on the big man from tiny Ashland.

COMPARED TO THE 2018 CLASS

Dallas Goedert’s 2017 numbers all stack up remarkably well against his peers in this draft class. His 23.1 percent market share is behind only the 23.9 percent of Troy Fumagalli.  No TEs come even close to matching his market share of team receptions and receiving yards – 27.5 percent and 30.3 percent respectively. He lags behind some of his competitors in touchdowns and overall share of team scores.

Player TDs MS TDs
Ryan Yurachek 10 40.0%
Mike Gesicki 9 28.1%
Cam Serigne 9 27.3%
Dallas Goedert 7 20.0%

However, he did score more TDs than Fumagalli, and while he scored one less than Mark Andrews, his 20 percent share is greater than Andrews’ 17.4 percent.

As I mentioned in my review of Hayden Hurst, scoring TDs isn’t everything, but there are not many notable NFL TEs who got there with a below average TD rate. Goedert does not have this problem.

COMPARED TO THE PROS

At 6-foot-4, Dallas Goedert stacks up against some notable NFL TEs in terms of size. When it comes to key stats, let’s see how he fares against this particular peer group.1

Height Weight 40 Yard Dash College Games College Recs College Yds College TDs
Austin Hooper 6’4 254 4.72 24 74 937 8
Jack Doyle 6’4 260 42 162 1769 8
Ben Watson 6’4 258 4.57 48 73 945 7
George Kittle 6’4 247 4.52 25 48 737 10
David Njoku 6’4 246 4.64 22 64 1060 9
Eric Ebron 6’4 250 4.6 34 112 1805 8
Dallas Goedert 6’4 260 4.65 53 198 2988 21

From a statistical standpoint, Goedert is far superior to a group which includes more than one first-round draft pick. He’s more than 1,000 yards clear of Eric Ebron (1,805). His 198 receptions are 38 more than Jack Doyle managed. The next closest TD-scorer is George Kittle (10).

He does have a little more wear on the tires, however. Goedert had 53 games worth of opportunities, more than all the others.2

While Goedert’s 40-yard dash time is at the moment only an estimate, it could be a huge boost to his draft stock if he is able to match or better 4.65 at the Combine. The need for speed cannot be understated in a modern TE. In his article regarding the combine drills that matter most for the position, the first indicator Kevin Cole looks at is the 40 time.

TIGHT-END-DRILLS-2

Speed was also vitally important in determining if a prospect had a chance to become a viable NFL starter in the prospect model created by Phil Watkins. The same SI article that gave us Goedert’s 40 time states that he was benching 380. Given that he’ll be expected to bench 225 pounds in Indianapolis, he should manage to clear the second hurdle in Kevin’s tree. That just leaves the vertical jump, which SI reports that he can do, jumping 36 inches.

DALLAS GOEDERT’S OUTLOOK

Dallas Goedert is the TE2 according to NFL Draft Scout, behind only Mark Andrews. CBS Sports has him in the exact same spot, behind the exact same man. NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks is higher than these two sites, however. He thinks Goedert is the best TE in this draft class.

Goedert was unable to showcase his skills against a higher class of opposition when he was injured during the Senior Bowl week practices, meaning some may hold his FCS pedigree against him. He was only capable of beating what was in front of him, however, and beat it he did.

If Goedert tests at the Combine as well as expected, he will have demonstrated all the athletic traits a player needs to succeed as a pro TE. I would not be at all surprised if his name were to be called during the first day in Dallas.

There are any number of teams who could use a matchup weapon like Goedert, but it’s a question of how many teams would be prepared to spend their top draft pick on him. The New Orleans Saints make a lot of sense, given the lack of serious production they’ve endured at TE since Ben Watson left two seasons ago. With defenses having to account for the Saints’ potent ground attack and star WR Michael Thomas, Goedert could find himself seeing favorable coverages with one of the all-time greats getting him the ball.

Dallas Goedert in New Orleans could even be that holy grail of NFL Draft prospects, namely an impact rookie TE.

  1. 40 yard dash time is an estimate but is taken from an SI article regarding “College Football Freaks” from September.  (back)
  2. Ben Watson appeared in 48 contests, but he didn’t have the workload that Goedert will have by the time the 2018 season comes around.  (back)

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