Like many others, when I first started playing DFS I would just take shots at tournaments and hope to hit it big overnight, but that’s not a winning strategy in this game. This series will help you go from being a “Joe” to a pro.
Throughout the season I’ll post my bankroll so you can view my weekly progress. This year, my starting bankroll will be $1,000 on DraftKings and $1,000 on FanDuel. I do this as a way to show how your bankroll can go through some valleys and peaks throughout the season. Experienced players aren’t winning 100 percent of the time — they face losing weeks like everyone else. The important thing is to be profitable at the end of Week 17. It’s a marathon, not a sprint.
Week 9 Plays
Cam Newton is in a tremendous spot this week and his price tags reflect that. Cam is the third most expensive quarterback on DraftKings and is priced all the way up on FanDuel. However, according to our DFS Lineup Optimizer, he’s still the best QB value on the slate. With that said, my attention can’t help but get drawn to the second best value on both sites, Deshaun Watson.
Here we can see what similar style QBs like Dak Prescott and the aforementioned Newton have done against Washington’s defense. It’s also worth mentioning that Prescott, Eli Manning and Sam Bradford are the only passers that didn’t throw for multiple touchdowns against them.
Per usual, the strategy this week is to pay up for volume at RB and chase cheap volume at wide receiver. With no Todd Gurley on the main slate, Melvin Gordon steps into the “to fade or not to fade” spot. I’m personally locking Gordon in as the Denver Broncos are allowing the fourth highest yards per carry on the road and nearly a rushing touchdown per game. Even against the Buccaneers awful defense, I’m not all that interested in Saquon Barkley this week. He’s been rock solid in terms of weekly fantasy points but the Giants have the second fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL and may not need to check down as much in this one. The Dallas Cowboys are averaging five yards per carry on the road this season and are facing a Falcons defense allowing five yards per carry at home. Ezekiel Elliott is a no brainer. Praise be to offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich for finally unleashing David Johnson. While I wouldn’t expect to him to find the end zone many more times over the rest of the season, the Raiders have already embraced the spirit of giving. The Johnson of seasons past should make an appearance in this one.
On DraftKings, the most expensive receiver I’ll be looking to fit in is T.Y. Hilton. Hilton isn’t the typical cash game receiver but he’s averaging eight targets per game and Andrew Luck has been on fire. You can see below the Titans have been smoked by opposing WR1s, especially deep threats.
On FanDuel, Alshon Jeffery looks like our top value play. According to the DFS Lineup Optimizer he’s actually the ninth best value but gets a major boost considering he has the second best matchup this week.
Cheaper options to consider:
- Kenny Golladay (if Marvin Jones sits)
- Corey Davis
- Larry Fitzgerald
- Courtland Sutton
- John Ross
- D.J. Moore
- Adam Humphries (if Chris Godwin sits)
Everyone will be off of Jack Doyle after Eric Ebron’s three touchdown game, but Doyle is still the better play and is now cheaper. Jordan Reed’s ceiling appears to be unattainable in this version of the Redskins offense but he’s the ultimate floor play, averaging seven targets per game. Ricky Seals-Jones has an aDOT of ten and is coming off a nine-target game. It’s concerning to be all in on the Cardinals but you have to be on anybody playing against the Raiders.