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Game Level Similarity Projections: Wide Receivers Week 15

Welcome to the 2018 Game Level Similarity Projections (GLSP) for wide receivers, a weekly column designed to help you identify high-upside standouts and set your season-long lineups.

GLSP uses historical matchup, team, player, and Vegas lines to generate situation-agnostic projections. The low projection is equivalent to the 25th percentile point total from the comparable matchups. The median projection provides a benchmark, with even odds of the player producing more or less. The high projection is equivalent to the 75th percentile point total from the comparable matchups.

Please note that the model is run three times: six weeks back, four weeks back, and three weeks back and the results are averaged. As a result, rookies that are trending well will be somewhat overprojected and second-year players who did not score well last year will be underprojected.

Remember, the most valuable way to incorporate GLSP into your lineup-setting process is to identify surprisingly high and low projections, then strategically start or fade the outliers. All of Dave’s Week 15 WR GLSP projections are included below.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVGRECS
Davante AdamsGBCHI1321.326.321.76.3
Antonio BrownPITNE1119.726217
Julio JonesATLARI111821.718.36
DeAndre HopkinsHOUNYJ9.71722.717.36.3
Michael ThomasNOCAR12.718.322.319.76.7
Keenan AllenLACKC1127.73525.78
Tyreek HillKCLAC814.316.714.34.7
JuJu Smith-SchusterPITNE12.32529.724.37.7
Adam ThielenMINMIA12.31923.319.76.3
Stefon DiggsMINMIA121620.3175.3
T.Y. HiltonINDDAL12.31922.319.77
Mike EvansTBBAL6.710.314.7114
Amari CooperDALIND111926.7216
Robert WoodsLARPHI1317.321.7196
Kenny GolladayDETBUF58.7129.73.3
Brandin CooksLARPHI6.31115124
Julian EdelmanNEPIT10.31518.316.36
Adam HumphriesTBBAL6.713.717145
Chris GodwinTBBAL5.311.713.710.74
Josh GordonNEPIT10.31420.316.35.7
Tyler BoydCINOAK1115.719.3175.3
Sterling ShepardNYGTEN6.310.31310.33.7
Larry FitzgeraldARIATL6.711.715.3124.3
Jarvis LandryCLEDEN8.71418.714.75.7
Golden TatePHILAR61013.710.74
Allen RobinsonCHIGB6.71315134.3
Corey DavisTENNYG611.31612.74
Courtland SuttonDENCLE610.713.711.33.7
D.J. MooreCARNO7.7131814.34.7
Tyler LockettSEASF9.31518.315.34.7
Calvin RidleyATLARI3.37.712.794.3
Dante PettisSFSEA12.718.322196.3
Demaryius ThomasHOUNYJ510.714.710.73.7
Bruce EllingtonDETBUF37.7119.33.3
Zay JonesBUFDET814.31814.75
Alshon JefferyPHILAR6.710.714.311.74.3
Curtis SamuelCARNO7.314.31914.34.7
Mohamed SanuATLARI4.79.713.7103.7
Doug BaldwinSEASF7.31215.312.74.3
Anthony MillerCHIGB3.37.7107.73
Josh ReynoldsLARPHI3.37.79.37.32.3
Antonio CallawayCLEDEN4.78.711.39.33.3
Jordy NelsonOAKCIN6.310.714.7124.3
Marquise GoodwinSFSEA2.34.77.762.3
Devante ParkerMIAMIN3.37.311.38.73
Tre'Quan SmithNOCAR1.34.795.71.7
Randall CobbGBCHI710.31211.34.7
Kenny StillsMIAMIN91518.314.75.3
Dede WestbrookJAXWAS8.713.317.3144.3
Taylor GabrielCHIGB48.311.78.73.3
Mike WilliamsLACKC3.79.313103.3
Michael GallupDALIND4.78.311.39.33.3
Quincy EnunwaNYJHOU25.38.372.7
Donte MoncriefJAXWAS4.7912.79.73.3
Chris ConleyKCLAC4.77.712.393.3
Devin FunchessCARNO3.34.78.772.3
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingGBCHI2.7686.32
Michael CrabtreeBALTB2.75.710.38.72.7
Josh DoctsonWASJAX4.3913.710.34
Danny AmendolaMIAMIN1.33.3651.7
Rashard HigginsCLEDEN510.713.3113.7
John RossCINOAK4911.39.73.3
David MooreSEASF3610.37.72.3
Daesean HamiltonDENCLE4812103.7
Robby AndersonNYJHOU5.71215.312.74.3
Tyrell WilliamsLACKC1.74.36.76.32
Jamison CrowderWASJAX51316124
Marcell AtemanOAKCIN3.38.71293.3
Isaiah McKenzieBUFDET4.31014113.3
Nelson AgholorPHILAR3.38.7118.73
Ryan GrantINDDAL0.72.75.74.31
Taywan TaylorTENNYG7.31315.713.74.7
Jermaine KearseNYJHOU3686.73.7
Robert FosterBUFDET6.7131713.35
Seth RobertsOAKCIN4.39.714.710.73.7
Tajae SharpeTENNYG1.33.35.752.7
Willie SneadBALTB37.310.38.32.7
Kendrick BourneSFSEA46.31082.3
Aldrick RobinsonMINMIA3.37.3119.73.3
Ryan SwitzerPITNE2.76.71182.3
Travis BenjaminLACKC3.37.711.382.7
Chris HoganNEPIT0.735.34.31.3
Bennie FowlerNYGTEN2.3475.32.3
John BrownBALTB3.36873
Tim PatrickDENCLE35.77.77.32.3
Keith KirkwoodNOCAR2.35.310.78.32.7
Cole BeasleyDALIND2.35.38.36.32.3
Cordarrelle PattersonNEPIT49129.33.3
Keelan ColeJAXWAS2.35.37.762
Chester RogersINDDAL1.74.7652
Deandre CarterHOUNYJ35.39.772.3
Jarius WrightCARNO2.76.38.77.73
TJ JonesDETBUF01.72.72.73
Equanimeous St. BrownGBCHI24.78.361.7
Russell ShepardNYGTEN4.77.3108.73
Cody CoreCINOAK2.76.79.36.72.3
Trent TaylorSFSEA02.74.73.71
Maurice HarrisWASJAX11.33.73.34.3
James WashingtonPITNE0.72.343.71.3
Trent SherfieldARIATL2.356.362.3
Demarcus RobinsonKCLAC35.78.36.72.7
Allen HurnsDALIND0.31.743.32.7
Jaron BrownSEASF6.310.712.311.74.3
Breshad PerrimanCLEDEN2.3585.72
Jake KumerowGBCHI00225
Jordan MatthewsPHILAR1.33.76.751.7
Laquon TreadwellMINMIA1.73.35.74.32
Cameron BatsonTENNYG0.723.73.73
Brice ButlerMIAMIN241072.3
Deonte ThompsonBUFDET0.723.33.32
Corey ColemanNYGTEN0.32.744.31.3
Zach PascalINDDAL36.71183
JJ NelsonARIATL0.32.743.72
Alex EricksonCINOAK002.72.73.3
Chris MooreBALTB0.323.33.33.3

These are the projections from Dave Caban. They’ll be available each week on Wednesdays as part of the Weekly Explorer. The apps version of the GLSP is available here for your own research.

Surprisingly Strong Projections

Things have come full circle as Keenan Allen sits atop the GLSP projections for Week 15, as he did against the same opponent in Week 1.

A strong buy low candidate after his characteristic uninspiring start to the year, Allen has exploded in the second half. Since Week 9, Allen has been the overall WR4 thanks to owning a massive share of his team’s volume.

Period

Targets Per Game

Target Market Share

PPR Per Game

Week 1 – 8

8.3

0.26

14.7

Week 9 – 14

10.7

0.34

21.2

Allen’s 10.7 targets per game and 34 percent market share are both first among wide receivers the last six weeks.

Conditions are favorable for another massive performance from Allen this week.

allen2

Allen has performed well above his average mark in games oddsmakers have pegged as shootouts. Versus the explosive Kansas City offense, game total lines are set well above 50 points. Expect Allen to shine.

Amari Cooper single-handedly won first-round fantasy playoff matchups with a 50-point PPR performance. Cooper justifiably has a lofty top-5 projection for Week 15. For more intel on Cooper’s situation and usage, check out Blair’s Expected Points column or Shawn Siegele’s weekly The 15. Cooper’s meteoric rise to fantasy stardom had made him a popular topic in fantasy circles lately. For commentary on Cooper’s juicy playoff matchups, see why he was one of my favorite playoff buy lows.

Dante Pettis, a player who I have highlighted the last two weeks, again has an optimistic projection. Despite my skepticism, Pettis has produced a surprisingly strong 20-plus PPR point average on identical seven target workloads the last three weeks.

pettis2

Indeed, Pettis has outproduced his expected points over this short stint by scoring five touchdowns in his last three games. His current clip appears unsustainable, and as such his GLSP projection is slightly overshot, but Pettis has undoubtedly earned a starting position on playoff teams.

George Kittle stole the show in Week 14 – and the entire season, really – but do not let it go unnoticed that via the AYA App the rookie receiver Pettis is producing at a similar clip with Nick Mullens, albeit it at lower volume.

pettis3

The supreme efficiency of Kittle and Pettis bodes well for San Francisco’s team outlook in years to come.

An early season eruption of fantasy success in Cincinnati has gone dormant as of late. Tyler Boyd, an end-of-draft dart throw who looked to be a league winner from the start, has fallen short of expectation since A.J. Green left the field after their Week 9 bye.

boyd2

This offseason will surely feature discussions on Boyd’s ability to overtake Green as the No. 1 in Cincinnati and how that might affect his fantasy value.

Digging in reveals that Boyd’s usage is basically unchanged with Green out.

boyd3

Excluding Cincinnati’s 37-point defeat to New Orleans in Week 9 from the above split boosts Boyd’s average targets to 8.25 in the last four weeks – perfectly on pace with his target averages in his eight games opposite Green.

Boyd’s dip in production is evidently a product of Cincinnati’s collapse as a team. The team’s splits since their Week 9 bye are pathetic.

bengals1

What looked like one of the breakout offenses of the first half of the year has torpedoed into ineptitude. Regardless, volume is king, and Boyd will again have ample opportunity. Fantasy owners will hope Boyd’s talent can overcome the setbacks of his team situation for the remaining rounds of the fantasy playoffs.

Scary Floors

The scariest floor of the week is easily Tyreek Hill’s. GLSP – accurately, might I add – prescribes Hill just an eight-point floor.

Hill is a perfect illustration of the sinusoidal nature of wide receiver fantasy production and will always come with a low floor. Nevertheless, his otherworldly upside has made him an obvious start every single week.

Hill is nursing heel and wrist injuries but appears good to go for Week 15 versus a Chargers’ defense he torched for 36 PPR points in Week 1.

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