Now that the 2019 NFL Draft is in the rearview mirror, it’s never too early to start analyzing how the incoming rookie class will fare from a fantasy football perspective. The quarterback position is one that’s been devalued in traditional single-quarterback fantasy scoring formats, but with Superflex and 2QB formats starting to become more and more popular, there’s an increased need for analysis at the position — specifically when they’re rookies.
Here are two quarterbacks that I’m targeting in Superflex dynasty leagues now that the 2019 NFL Draft has concluded.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
It shouldn’t be surprising to anyone that Kyler Murray is the top target for superflex leagues. Not only was he selected first overall by the Arizona Cardinals, he brings a dual-threat ability to head coach Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid offense that should see him rack up fantasy points in a plethora of ways.
Murray’s collegiate profile is as electric as they come. He finished his final season at Oklahoma throwing for 4,361 passing yards, 42 touchdowns, and posting a whopping 13.0 AYA (NCAA single-season record). Murray was near-perfect when in no-pressure situations, sporting a QBR of 148.6. He was also incredibly accurate, leading this year’s class of quarterbacks in “on-target” pass percentage (79.2%), per SIS.
Not only was Murray a highly efficient and accurate thrower, he was also a highly effective runner when forced from the pocket. Murray finished the year with over 1,000 yards on the ground and 12 rushing touchdowns. That Konami-style passing/rushing combination already makes Murray a highly coveted fantasy asset.
Murray’s comps from the RotoViz Box Score Scout (BSS) might not have high Sim Scores, but the similar dual-threat quarterbacks it spits out shouldn’t be any surprise. Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, and Dak Prescott have all put up top-12 fantasy seasons. Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson are both equally capable of joining them on this list given a full 16 games to start. Murray is in elite dual-threat company here among the NFL’s next wave of quarterback superstars.
The puzzle pieces have been laid out for months connecting Murray to Arizona, but what made the Murray pick so exciting was that the Cardinals elected to surround their young signal caller with additional weapons right away. Arizona paired Murray with high-draft pedigree receivers in Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler, and last year’s early draft pick, Christian Kirk. That gives Murray an incredible trio to grow around and develop a long-lasting working rapport. Kingsbury’s offense will be a trial by fire for Murray with him dropping back to throw often. That rapport will be tested early, with Kingsbury’s Texas Tech squad finishing top-five in the nation in pass play percentage last year (57.8%). That pass volume equates to plenty of opportunities for Murray to accrue fantasy points passing or rushing the ball.
Murray’s current dynasty ADP is 1.01 in Superflex leagues. His passing and rushing skills combined with his immediate opportunity in an Air Raid offense means its wheels up for Murray right off the bat. Don’t overthink it.
Dwayne Haskins, Washington
Selected 15th overall, Washington may have found their quarterback of the future after trying to band aid the position with Alex Smith and Case Keenum the past two free agency periods. Dwayne Haskins has a legitimate chance to supplant Keenum as the Week 1 starter, making it one of the more intriguing early camp battles to keep an eye on.
Haskins enters the NFL following just two years at Ohio State. Last season, Haskins set the single-season record at Ohio State for most passing yards (4,831) and passing touchdowns (50), obliterating the previous marks.1 He threw for 400-plus yards five different times last year, a mark that was only done one other time in Ohio State’s storied history. Haskins trailed only Washington State’s Gardner Minshew in pass attempts (662 vs 533) as one of 2018’s most voluminous passers.
Unlike Murray, Haskins was not much of a runner at Ohio State (79-108-4 stat line). As such, the closest player to Haskins’ profile is Jameis Winston (43), who has a very similar build and pass-to-run ratio. There’s reason for optimism here with names such as Mahomes, Watson, Andrew Luck, and Marcus Mariota rounding out Haskins’ BSS comps.
In terms of immediate impact, Washington’s offensive weapons aren’t exactly what we’d call ideal. Haskins will have his work cut out for him with primary targets in Josh Doctson, Paul Richardson, Trey Quinn, and Jordan Reed. One positive for Haskins is that he’ll be playing behind an offensive line that has three former first-rounders on it. The Washington offensive line has been a turnstile due to injury, but if this squad can get lucky in the health department, they could turn into a formidable one. Given Haskins’ statue-esque passing nature, it isn’t a bad fit on paper.
Haskins’ price isn’t quite as clear-cut as Murray’s when it comes to fantasy. In 16-team Superflex leagues, I’m all onboard for a team selecting Haskins at 1.02. Outside of the startup draft, the rookie draft is the cheapest place you can acquire quarterbacks. Haskins’ draft equity should ensure him a significant opportunity in Washington to compete right off the bat. In 12-team Superflex leagues, Haskins makes sense to me around the 1.04 to 1.06 area. He’s by no means a slam-dunk prospect and his lack of rushing upside slides him down behind the top tier of skill position players.
- 3,330 and 35, respectively (back)