5 Wide Receivers Primed to Score More in 2019: Positive Touchdown Regression
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Image Credit: Stephen Lew/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Julio Jones.

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Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a Wide Receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Every year there are outliers who catch touchdowns at a higher or lower rate than one would expect based on their targets and yards in that season. Perception about a player’s ability to score touchdowns — and thus score fantasy football points — may be drastically skewed if their actual touchdowns doesn’t align with their expected number.

In Part 1 of this WR touchdown regression article series, we’ll look at the Wide Receivers who scored at a lower rate than expected, and thus who we can expect to score more touchdowns in 2019, assuming their targets and yards remain the same.

Last year, this methodology helped us identify Julio Jones (three TDs in 2017; eight in 2018), Michael Thomas (five in 2017; nine in 2018), and Adam Thielen (four in 2017; nine in 2018) as three of our five favorite positive touchdown regression candidates.

Methodology

As an update to last year’s touchdown regression equation, below is the RotoViz Screener output for the correlation between targets and receiving yards with receiving touchdowns, from 2011-2018 for WRs with at least 50 targets.

Expected reTDS = 0.271 + (-0.012 * Total reRTGS) + (0.007 * Total reYDS)

Wide Receivers Who Scored Fewer Touchdowns Compared to Expectation

The following are WRs who saw 50-plus targets in 2018 and underperformed their predicted touchdown total by at least 1.0 touchdowns.

Rank PLAYER reTRGS reYDS reTDS Expected reTDS Difference
1 D.J. Moore 82 788 2 4.803 2.803
2 Willie Snead 95 651 1 3.688 2.688
3 Danny Amendola 79 575 1 3.348 2.348
4 Brandin Cooks 116 1204 5 7.307 2.307
5 Taylor Gabriel 93 688 2 3.971 1.971
6 Julio Jones 170 1676 8 9.963 1.963
7 Keelan Cole 70 491 1 2.868 1.868
8 Taywan Taylor 56 466 1 2.861 1.861
9 T.Y. Hilton 120 1270 6 7.721 1.721
10 Jarius Wright 60 447 1 2.68 1.68
11 Quincy Enunwa 69 449 1 2.586 1.586
12 Marquez Valdes-Scantling 72 581 2 3.474 1.474
13 Jordy Nelson 88 739 3 4.388 1.388
14 Jarvis Landry 148 976 4 5.327 1.327
15 Kenny Golladay 118 1063 5 6.296 1.296
16 Mike Evans 139 1524 8 9.271 1.271
17 Robert Woods 131 1219 6 7.232 1.232
18 Corey Davis 112 891 4 5.164 1.164
19 Emmanuel Sanders 98 866 4 5.157 1.157
20 Kelvin Benjamin 67 380 1 2.127 1.127
21 Sterling Shepard 107 872 4 5.091 1.091
22 Josh Doctson 79 532 2 3.047 1.047
23 Mohamed Sanu 94 838 4 5.009 1.009
24 Michael Gallup 68 507 2 3.004 1.004

Top Positive Touchdown Regression WRs for 2019

Michael Dubner

RotoViz Featured Writer. Emphasis on DFS and DRAFT Best Ball.
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