Fool’s Gold WRS: Positive Touchdown Regression Candidates Who Won’t Score More
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Image Credit: Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Andrew Luck.

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Most analysts just use receiving yards to regress touchdowns, so finding that there is signal with adding targets was novel.1

Last week we explored the Five Wide Receivers Primed to Score More in 2019 based on positive touchdown regression. Those were WRs who scored fewer touchdowns compared to expectation. I personally have greater than 10 percent exposure in DRAFT Best Ball leagues to three of those WRs.

While we already touched on the players who should positively regress in the touchdown column, in that list (which I have posted again below) there were a couple of WRs who underperformed their touchdown expectation and thus we would expect them to positively regress in 2019, but whose circumstances have changed, so we shouldn’t actually expect them to score more touchdowns in 2019.

WRs with 50-plus targets in 2018 and underperformed their predicted touchdown total by at least 1.0 touchdowns.

Rank PLAYER reTRGS reYDS reTDS Expected reTDS Difference
1 D.J. Moore 82 788 2 4.803 2.803
2 Willie Snead 95 651 1 3.688 2.688
3 Danny Amendola 79 575 1 3.348 2.348
4 Brandin Cooks 116 1204 5 7.307 2.307
5 Taylor Gabriel 93 688 2 3.971 1.971
6 Julio Jones 170 1676 8 9.963 1.963
7 Keelan Cole 70 491 1 2.868 1.868
8 Taywan Taylor 56 466 1 2.861 1.861
9 T.Y. Hilton 120 1270 6 7.721 1.721
10 Jarius Wright 60 447 1 2.68 1.68
11 Quincy Enunwa 69 449 1 2.586 1.586
12 Marquez Valdes-Scantling 72 581 2 3.474 1.474
13 Jordy Nelson 88 739 3 4.388 1.388
14 Jarvis Landry 148 976 4 5.327 1.327
15 Kenny Golladay 118 1063 5 6.296 1.296
16 Mike Evans 139 1524 8 9.271 1.271
17 Robert Woods 131 1219 6 7.232 1.232
18 Corey Davis 112 891 4 5.164 1.164
19 Emmanuel Sanders 98 866 4 5.157 1.157
20 Kelvin Benjamin 67 380 1 2.127 1.127
21 Sterling Shepard 107 872 4 5.091 1.091
22 Josh Doctson 79 532 2 3.047 1.047
23 Mohamed Sanu 94 838 4 5.009 1.009
24 Michael Gallup 68 507 2 3.004 1.004

Fool’s Gold: WRs Due For Positive Touchdown Regression Who Won’t Score More in 2019

3. Willie Snead

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Michael Dubner

RotoViz Featured Writer. Emphasis on NFL DFS and Best Ball.
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