Fool’s Gold WRS: Positive Touchdown Regression Candidates Who Won’t Score More
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Image Credit: Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Andrew Luck.

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Most analysts just use receiving yards to regress touchdowns, so finding that there is signal with adding targets was novel.1

Last week we explored the Five Wide Receivers Primed to Score More in 2019 based on positive touchdown regression. Those were WRs who scored fewer touchdowns compared to expectation. I personally have greater than 10 percent exposure in DRAFT Best Ball leagues to three of those WRs.

While we already touched on the players who should positively regress in the touchdown column, in that list (which I have posted again below) there were a couple of WRs who underperformed their touchdown expectation and thus we would expect them to positively regress in 2019, but whose circumstances have changed, so we shouldn’t actually expect them to score more touchdowns in 2019.

WRs with 50-plus targets in 2018 and underperformed their predicted touchdown total by at least 1.0 touchdowns.

RankPLAYERreTRGSreYDSreTDSExpected reTDSDifference
1D.J. Moore8278824.8032.803
2Willie Snead9565113.6882.688
3Danny Amendola7957513.3482.348
4Brandin Cooks116120457.3072.307
5Taylor Gabriel9368823.9711.971
6Julio Jones170167689.9631.963
7Keelan Cole7049112.8681.868
8Taywan Taylor5646612.8611.861
9T.Y. Hilton120127067.7211.721
10Jarius Wright6044712.681.68
11Quincy Enunwa6944912.5861.586
12Marquez Valdes-Scantling7258123.4741.474
13Jordy Nelson8873934.3881.388
14Jarvis Landry14897645.3271.327
15Kenny Golladay118106356.2961.296
16Mike Evans139152489.2711.271
17Robert Woods131121967.2321.232
18Corey Davis11289145.1641.164
19Emmanuel Sanders9886645.1571.157
20Kelvin Benjamin6738012.1271.127
21Sterling Shepard10787245.0911.091
22Josh Doctson7953223.0471.047
23Mohamed Sanu9483845.0091.009
24Michael Gallup6850723.0041.004

Fool’s Gold: WRs Due For Positive Touchdown Regression Who Won’t Score More in 2019

3. Willie Snead

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Michael Dubner

RotoViz Featured Writer. Emphasis on NFL DFS and Best Ball.

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