Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Most analysts just use receiving yards to regress touchdowns, so finding that there is signal with adding targets was novel.[1]
Last week we explored the Five Wide Receivers Primed to Score More in 2019 based on positive touchdown regression. Those were WRs who scored fewer touchdowns compared to expectation. I personally have greater than 10 percent exposure in DRAFT Best Ball leagues to three of those WRs.
While we already touched on the players who should positively regress in the touchdown column, in that list (which I have posted again below) there were a couple of WRs who underperformed their touchdown expectation and thus we would expect them to positively regress in 2019, but whose circumstances have changed, so we shouldn’t actually expect them to score more touchdowns in 2019.
WRs with 50-plus targets in 2018 and underperformed their predicted touchdown total by at least 1.0 touchdowns.
| Rank | PLAYER | reTRGS | reYDS | reTDS | Expected reTDS | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | D.J. Moore | 82 | 788 | 2 | 4.803 | 2.803 |
| 2 | Willie Snead | 95 | 651 | 1 | 3.688 | 2.688 |
| 3 | Danny Amendola | 79 | 575 | 1 | 3.348 | 2.348 |
| 4 | Brandin Cooks | 116 | 1204 | 5 | 7.307 | 2.307 |
| 5 | Taylor Gabriel | 93 | 688 | 2 | 3.971 | 1.971 |
| 6 | Julio Jones | 170 | 1676 | 8 | 9.963 | 1.963 |
| 7 | Keelan Cole | 70 | 491 | 1 | 2.868 | 1.868 |
| 8 | Taywan Taylor | 56 | 466 | 1 | 2.861 | 1.861 |
| 9 | T.Y. Hilton | 120 | 1270 | 6 | 7.721 | 1.721 |
| 10 | Jarius Wright | 60 | 447 | 1 | 2.68 | 1.68 |
| 11 | Quincy Enunwa | 69 | 449 | 1 | 2.586 | 1.586 |
| 12 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 72 | 581 | 2 | 3.474 | 1.474 |
| 13 | Jordy Nelson | 88 | 739 | 3 | 4.388 | 1.388 |
| 14 | Jarvis Landry | 148 | 976 | 4 | 5.327 | 1.327 |
| 15 | Kenny Golladay | 118 | 1063 | 5 | 6.296 | 1.296 |
| 16 | Mike Evans | 139 | 1524 | 8 | 9.271 | 1.271 |
| 17 | Robert Woods | 131 | 1219 | 6 | 7.232 | 1.232 |
| 18 | Corey Davis | 112 | 891 | 4 | 5.164 | 1.164 |
| 19 | Emmanuel Sanders | 98 | 866 | 4 | 5.157 | 1.157 |
| 20 | Kelvin Benjamin | 67 | 380 | 1 | 2.127 | 1.127 |
| 21 | Sterling Shepard | 107 | 872 | 4 | 5.091 | 1.091 |
| 22 | Josh Doctson | 79 | 532 | 2 | 3.047 | 1.047 |
| 23 | Mohamed Sanu | 94 | 838 | 4 | 5.009 | 1.009 |
| 24 | Michael Gallup | 68 | 507 | 2 | 3.004 | 1.004 |
Fool’s Gold: WRs Due For Positive Touchdown Regression Who Won’t Score More in 2019
3. Willie Snead
Footnotes
| ↑1 | And it was interesting to see that targets are actually negatively correlated with touchdowns, given the same amount of receiving yards. |
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