Shawn Siegele uses the FFPC Redraft Command Center to keep you up to date after a crazy weekend of player movement.
The biggest week of fantasy football drafting is here. To maximize your round value, it’s crucial to keep track of recent shifts in ADP. If you want to grab that trendy player, you want to strike early while limiting the size of your reach. If you want to profit from a player going out of style, it’s helpful to know just how far he will drop. Let’s dive right into the ADP risers and fallers.
Risers and Fallers
Darwin Thompson – With it becoming clear that Carlos Hyde will not make the Chiefs, Thompson’s ADP exploded over the second half of last week. It peaked on Friday night, which corresponded with our Main Event draft. The rookie went off the board at 8.02 in that one, before players like Royce Freeman and Rashaad Penny. Thompson slipped a little bit later in the weekend as Damien Williams’ 62-yard touchdown reception reminded everyone of his elite speed and great offensive fit.
RotoViz and Devin McIntyre have been all over Thompson since before the NFL draft, and he’s on almost all of my dynasty teams as a result. I profiled him in depth during the Zero RB Candidates Countdown and will still be trying to add him in drafts. He’s a much better selection in Round 10.
Duke Johnson – Johnson was one of two players I teased as likely to enter the Zero RB Candidates list this week, but Lamar Miller’s injury will make him tough to acquire now. He jumped 30 picks overnight. Tyler Loechner uses the Projection Machine to explain what we should expect from Johnson’s ascendance.
Derrius Guice – Guice made his preseason debut in Week 3, rushing for 44 yards on 11 carries. Jay Gruden praised his effort, and the reconstructed knee looked powerful through cuts and contact.
Washington’s RB of the Future is a difficult player to buy at his new price. He should wrest the lead role from Adrian Peterson sooner rather than later, but he also projects to lose most of the receiving value to Chris Thompson. Add in the poor overall offensive outlook, and this is a good window to sell in dynasty.
Josh Gordon – Gordon continues to rise following his reinstatement. Now activated and practicing, he’s an enigma tossed into the middle of a suddenly loaded Patriots passing game. The RotoViz crew debates his outlook.
Dede Westbrook – Westbrook had a big game in the preseason dress rehearsal as the target on Nick Foles first six passes to wide receivers.1 He scored a TD and was later praised for his route running by offensive coordinator John DeFilippo. With buzz dying down for Chris Conley and intriguing second-year speedster D.J. Chark suffering a concussion, this passing game will go through Westbrook.
Westbrook’s rise represents a move in the direction of his true value. Neil Dutton presented him as a value in April, and FFPC veteran Larry Weinhauer exhorted you to buy Westbrook in mid-July. In my look at what we should expect from third-year WR breakout candidates in 2019, Westbrook was going at a big discount to the other key names. He’s now closing that gap.
Jordan Reed – Reed suffered a concussion in Washington’s third preseason game, quickly erasing the enthusiasm that was starting to build for the TE bounceback candidate.
Lamar Miller – After tearing his ACL and MCL against the Cowboys, Miller’s dynasty value also craters.
Ronald Jones – Jones has moved from buy to screaming buy after a series of mediocre preseason performances slot him in behind Peyton Barber to start the season. I make the case for Jones in the Zero RB Countdown: No. 10 to No. 6 and describe him as a fun player to own because he takes guts to draft. Last year we made a similar gutty call for a player who was cratering, and he paid off as a key piece in fantasy championships. Curtis and I showed that courage in our Main Event, selecting him at 10.09.
Dallas Goedert – While expected to be ready for the opener, Goedert is nursing a calf injury. We like him as the Guy Behind the Guy, but the missed time makes it even more difficult to burn a pick in this range on a team’s second TE.
Jack Doyle – Doyle has actually been better when Jacoby Brisset is under center, but those numbers come without Eric Ebron on the field. Doyle’s ADP has been extremely enthusiastic all offseason.
Follow along in the FFPC Redraft Command Center to keep up with all of the latest ADP moves and good luck as you draft this week.
Image Credit: Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Dede Westbrook.
- There was also pass interference on a target to Conley. (back)