Welcome to another edition of the 2019 Confident Cash Plays Series!
The heavy LSU and Alabama player pool smashed last week! This week will be a bit more complex given the depth of options, but let’s see if we can keep the winning momentum rolling!
If you like GPP contests, Ryan Collinsworth has a piece for you every week as well! But for now, let’s dive into this week’s Confident Cash Plays!
This week’s slate is jam packed with high implied point totals for most offenses. In fact the average point total is over 2.5 points higher than just a week ago. What does that mean? It means there are tons of viable starting quarterback options this week. My projection model actually has 11 of the 22 starting quarterbacks finishing with over 20 fantasy points this week (three more than any other week this season). But that doesn’t mean there aren’t some clear value options to go with this week.
Let’s check out my six plays at QB and some relevant variables all side by side:
|Quarterback||Week 5 Price||Avg Points Per Game||Pass Comp + Rush Att Per Game||Implied Team Points||Opponent Pass Yds Allowed/Game||Expected Fantasy Poits|
You may notice that the table is sorted initially by most expected fantasy points and that neither Jalen Hurts or Tua Tagovailoa sit atop that list. That has to be a mistake, right?
Jamie Newman and the Wake Forest offense has been on a crazy tear this season averaging almost 40 points per game already. Now they get Boston College, a team giving up over 250 passing yards and nearly 200 rushing yards per game. When you mix the matchup with Newman’s incredibly 37.75 total opportunities per game (pass completions plus rush attempts) you get a formula implicitly stating that he’s the absolute lock of the week at the quarterback position.
Yes, Hurts and Tagovailoa are still the chalkiest options besides the studly Demon Deacon. Hurts doesn’t exactly have a juicy matchup through the air, but given the work he’s done with his legs this season that doesn’t matter. He’s averaging nearly 50 points per game, so he’s appropriately priced at $9,200. Tagovailoa has been killing it this season as well and draws an incredibly soft matchup in Ole Miss (giving up nearly 300 passing yards per game already). Both of their teams are supposed to score around 50 points this week. Both should easily crack 25 points, if not 30 this week. I’ll be stacking one of these guys with Newman in over half of my lineups this week.
The Other Guys
Kellen Mond (Texas A&M) has the easiest defensive matchup of the “other guy” options this week as Texas A&M faces off with an always embarrassing Arkansas defense. They’re giving up over 250 passing yards per week already and should give up even more to the Aggies. A&M is expected to score over 40 points, which means plenty of scoring opportunities for Mond and the entire Aggie crew.
Brock Purdy (Iowa State) and Anthony Russo (Temple) don’t have easy defensive opponents on paper at first glance, but lead offenses that give them 95th percentile opportunities per game. And in all actuality, both of their opponents aren’t tough at all. Purdy gets Baylor, who has only played Stephen F. Austin, Texas San Antonio, and Rice. After dropping about 500 yards just a week ago, Purdy’s price is still ridiculous at $7500. As for Russo, he’s been chucking it 43 times per game so far this season, and now faces a one-dimensional Georgia Tech team that matches up poorly against Temple’s stout Top 25 defense. Given the positive point total and opportunity it’s insane Russo is still priced at $6400.
Priority: (1) Newman, (2) Tagovailoa, (3) Hurts, (4) Mond, (5) Russo, (6) Purdy
Let’s kick the running backs off with a look at the suggested player pool this week as a whole:
|Running Back||Week 5 Price||Avg Points Per Game||Touches Per Game||Implied Team Points||Opponent Rush Yds Allowed Per Game||Expected Fantasy Points|
The first thing you might notice when putting a lineup together is that it’s incredibly difficult to fit Jonathan Taylor anywhere and not hate the rest of your lineup. However, that’s okay if he shows out like he has been. He’s more than doubling the average points of nearly the entire RB field on the season. If you do role with Taylor expect a ridiculous point total with the floor being somewhere around my model’s expected 24.03 points. You’ll likely need to stack a minimum priced dud with him if you do squeeze him in, but I get that move just to secure the safety of Taylor’s workload.
A.J. Dillon is a bit riskier at $8,300 given that Wake Forest is actually decent against the run. However, it’s impossible to fade 26 touches per game. If you want a less expensive lead RB with the safest touch floor on the slate Dillon’s your guy.
Travis Etienne can be tough to trust given Clemson’s propensity for blowout victories and benching him early. However, in games where the score is even remotely close for much time at all Etienne is seeing nearly 20 touches, including a few catches. Given the implied script this week (44-17 final projected score according to oddsmakers), the starters will be pulled at some point, but later than the other blowouts on the slate. Roll Etienne in the RB1 slot if you want safer receivers.
DraftKings loves to give us one “in-between” priced stud every week. This week it’s Darius Anderson’s turn (TCU, $6500). The only way that TCU can actually move the ball is on the ground and now they get to face a team giving up nearly 200 yards rushing each week. With 33 implied points for TCU and over 15 touches per game Anderson (who runs a 4.4 and is well catalogued as a demonstrative beast) is in a great spot to smash this week. His teammate Sewo Olonilua is also a value at $5200 thanks to the cushy matchup and his consistent touch floor.
Vavae Malepeai (USC, $6,000) is going to stay locked in as an auto-start as long as his price stays under $7000 and he continues to feature with nearly 20 touches per game. Ridiculous miss here on pricing, regardless of the defense he’s facing.
Isaiah Spiller (Texas A&M, $5,100) and Cade Carney (Wake Forest, $5,100) both have feature potential within their offenses against weak rush defenses. Spiller started off as the backup this season, and Texas A&M has faced tough competition, but expect a feature back workload and multiple touchdown upside against Arkansas. Carney has missed some time, but when the season began he kicked things off with 26 touches in week one. If he’s fully healthy, Carney could finish this week as the RB1 overall at $5,100.
Jordan Mason (Georgia Tech) continues to be underrated at $5,400. He is the primary rusher on a team the carries the ball over 40 times per game. He’s averaging nearly 20 points and over 16 touches every week. Easy RB2 this week even in a tougher match-up.
Washington backs have incredible potential this week, but if Salvon Ahmed plays it will ruin everything. Richard Newton ($5,200) has become the Wildcat and goal line back. Sean McGrew ($3,700) is the small, but shifty efficient back. Newton has multiple TD opportunity, and McGrew has 20-touch potential at nearly minimum price. Ahmed, please take one more week off to get healthy.
The best potential boom on the board will be the Temple running backs. Why? Georgia Tech is allowing 274.7 rushing yards per game so far this season. Temple always wins through the air, but this week they should dominate on the ground as well. The cheapest back in the one-two punch for Temple is Re’Mahn Davis ($4,200). Davis provides incredible roster flexibility.
Priority: (1) Anderson, (2) Spiller, (3) Taylor, (4) Etienne, (5) Davis, (6) McGrew
Let’s wrap this edition of Confident Cash Plays up with a look at the WR player pool for the week:
|Wide Receiver||Week 5 Price||Avg Points Per Game||Touches Per Game||Implied Team Points||Opponent Receiving Yds Allowed Per Game||Expected Fantasy Points|
|Michael Pittman Jr.||7300||23.92||7.75||24.5||213.3||13.18|
If you’re familiar with College Football at all you’ll quickly recognize there are four wide receiver duos in the player pool this week.
The first is Jerry Jeudy ($8,100) and Devonta Smith ($5,900) for Alabama. Jeudy is consistently the safest option on essentially every slate, averaging 7.5 touches and 28 points per game. Tagovailoa clearly wants Jeudy to win back to back Biletnikoff Awards (Best WR in CFB). Smith is coming off his only disappointing performance on the year, which has depressed his price. Smith is averaging more touches than Henry Ruggs ($7600), but he’s $1700 cheaper. The upside with 49 implied points for Alabama is incredible. Plus the floor has typically been five catches per game for Smith.
The second duo might be the absolute money play this week in both Cash and GPP contests. Sage Surratt ($7,500) and Scotty Washington ($6,900) should both be priced around $8,000 this week given the soft match-up and average receptions per week. But it’s Wake Forest so the field may fade this crew. Enjoy the free points in the highest projected scoring game on the slate.
The other well known duo in this pool consists of Jhamon Ausbon ($6,300) and Quartney Davis ($6,000) for Texas A&M. They’re both averaging more than five receptions per game, the Aggies should score 40 points, and Arkansas is allowing over 250 yards receiving. Both can easily be pairedwith Mond to differentiate your lineup from a more chalky Alabama or Oklahoma stack.
The cheapest and lesser known pair comes in the form of Jadan Blue and Isaiah Wright for Temple. They’re both averaging around eight touches per game and yet they’re only $5,100. The implied game script and point total doesn’t afford them the same 12-target ceiling they’re accustomed to, but they’re still incredible values. Given Russo’s price, both can fit in your lineup. That should allow you fit an elite running back option.
Best of the Rest
Michael Pittman Jr. (USC) is coming off a 10-catch, 232-yard performance and is priced appropriately at $7,300. He’ll need to dominate receiving market share in a lower scoring game this week, but has incredible potential. He’s the easiest pivot off any WR duo, but is not exactly safe given the price.
Aaron Fuller (Washington) essentially has identical market share potential to Pittman, but he’s significantly cheaper. In that same Washington versus USC game both project to be the best plays through the air on their team.
Charleston Rambo (Oklahoma) not only has a fantastic name, he’s also averaging more receptions per game than star teammate CeeDee Lamb, but costs significantly less to start in a game where Oklahoma is projected to score 49.
And last, but not least, Deshaunte Jones (Iowa State, $5,100) is a versatile lineup chess piece this week. He’s averaging just under eight receptions per game. He’s paired with a solid quarterback with 500-passing-yard upside. Plus the “tough” match-up is deceiving given Baylor has only played JUCO level competition so far. His ownership percentage should be low among other mid-priced options.
Priority: (1) Surratt, (2) Jones, (3) Ausbon, (4) Smith, (5) Jeudy, (6) Washington, (7) Blue, (8) Davis
And that’s all folks! Hope your teams kill it in the main slate of Week 5 College Football! Make sure to check out Devy Weekly to learn more about breakout studs every single week of the season. Please find me on Twitter @FF_TravisM to chat more about all things college football and NFL! And as always, keep living that Dynasty Life!