Who are the best plays for the Week 2 DFS primetime slate on DraftKings and FanDuel? This article runs through notes on the primetime short slate featuring SNF/MNF games.1
DSF Week 2 Primetime Slate
|Home||Away||Spread||Favorite Implied||Underdog Implied||Vegas Total|
|Atlanta Falcons||Philadelphia Eagles||PHI -1.5||27||25.5||52.5|
|New York Jets||Cleveland Browns||CLV -6.5||25.25||18.75||44|
DFS Week 2 Primetime Slate theory thoughts:
- One game should be competitive and high-scoring, while the other could turn into an early blowout; GPP edges will be found in the latter
- Three of the four teams have implied team totals of at least 25 points; there are good plays in both games
- The Falcons-Eagles game will take place in a dome; it will be the most popular game-stack of choice
- It’s easy to fit a lot of studs into your primetime lineup this week; your lineup differentiators will be your stacks and mid-range plays
Chalk: Matt Ryan ($8,200 FD; $6,000 DK)
Ryan’s Falcons are at home in a projected shootout against a defense that just gave up 380 yards and three scores to Case Keenum and a receiver-less Washington team. Among this slate’s QBs, Ryan has the highest top-upside projection2 in the Game Level Similarity Projections (GLSP), at 23.6.
Ryan has the fourth-best QB matchup of the week,3 and best among this slate’s options. On FanDuel, he’s the most expensive option, but on DraftKings, he’s the third-cheapest QB on the slate. He’s the easy choice for chalky Week 2 Primetime Slate DFS.
Contrarian: Baker Mayfield ($7,800 FD; $6,100 DK)
Mayfield is in a good bounceback spot after flopping in Week 1 with 285 yards, one score, and three INTs in a blowout loss to the Titans. This week, he draws the injured Jets and, despite playing on the road, the Browns are touchdown-favorites with an implied total over 25 points — putting them in line with the Falcons and Eagles in terms of potential points on this slate.
The poor performance in Week 1 will get people to shy away from Mayfield on this short slate with Ryan and Carson Wentz as comparatively-priced options. However, you can confidently play Mayfield; his Week 2 average GLSP is 18.2, fourth-best among all QBs and tops among options on the slate. Additionally, the Jets D has ceded top-seven fantasy performances in three of their past four games.4
Chalk: Nick Chubb ($7,500 FD; $6,500 DK)
Despite not playing at home, Chubb’s Browns are 6.5-point favorites against the Jets, and he should see plenty of work as the Browns look to put the game away in the second half. Chubb’s 36.2% opportunity market share from Week 1 ranked ninth-best among all RBs, and his 85% team rush attempt market share ranked first.
Contrarian: Miles Sanders ($5,500 FD; $4,100 DK)
Sanders had the highest rush attempt market share (35.5%) and total opportunity market share (18.6%) among Philadelphia running backs last weekend.
He’s locked in a three-headed committee with Jordan Howard and Darren Sproles (for now), but he’s the slight “lead back” of the group early in the season, and his price tag on both FanDuel and DraftKings is extremely low.
Chalk: Odell Beckham Jr. ($8,100 FD; $7,500 DK)
Top-tier NFL playmaker Beckham will splash on Monday night against the Jets, who are fresh off an absolute beatdown from not-top-tier NFL playmaker John Brown (7-123-1). Beckham stepped in and immediately served as Cleveland’s No. 1 wideout, commanding 29% target market share.
And now look at how the Jets have “performed” against WRs over their last five games:
Contrarian: Mohamed Sanu ($5,300 FD; $4,400 DK)
Sanu is incredibly cheap and gives you access to some of the bigger names we’ve already mentioned. Sanu tied for third on the team with Calvin Ridley with 13% team target market share. He gives you access to the Falcons-Eagles game without all the chalk.
|Player||Vegas game total||% of games with at least 10 PPR points|
|Mohamed Sanu||49.5 or lower||44%|
|Mohamed Sanu||50 or higher||85%|
Contrarian: Alshon Jeffery ($6,900 FD; $5,800 DK)
In tournaments, people will probably click on DeSean Jackson’s name after he caught eight of nine balls for 154 yards and two scores in the season opener. But the similarly-priced Jeffery makes for an interesting tournament pivot from Jackson. Jeffery also had a solid Week 1, catching five of seven targets for 49 yards and a score.
Per our NFL Stat Explorer, the Falcons have given up the sixth-most receptions to WRs over the last five regular-season games6 and the second-highest RACR (Receiver Air Conversation Rate) to the position.
Chalk: Austin Hooper ($6,000 FD; $3,500 DK)7
Hooper led the Falcons in receiving in Week 1 with nine catches (on nine targets) for 77 scoreless yards. Conceding that Matt Ryan will not throw the ball 46 times each week, it was still nice to see Hooper command a 14.3% opportunity market share, second-highest on the team behind Julio Jones.
The Eagles have ceded the 12th-most expected fantasy points to tight ends over their last five games (and the 12th-most actual FPs).
Contrarian: Ryan Griffin ($4,000 FD; $2,700 DK)
Griffin played 100% of the team’s snaps and scooped up nearly 10% of the team’s targets.8 With Quincy Enunwa’s 7% team target market share now up for grabs — and Jamison Crowder’s 41.5% target market share primed for a rapid decrease — Griffin makes for an interesting near-mind-priced pivot from the position’s chalky options.
Image Credit: Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Baker Mayfield.
- An important note: I’m writing this column with tournaments and GPPs top of mind. Cash game plays on short slates are usually easier to figure out because the options are so thin; tournaments require quite a bit of game theory, which can be half the fun. (back)
- 75th percentile projection (back)
- Based on our Strength of Schedule app (back)
- They rank second-worst in the NFL over the last five games (back)
- Over Sanu’s last 32 games (back)
- Including 2019 Week 1, in which the Vikings only attempted 10 total passes. (back)
- The other chalk here is obviously Zach Ertz, but you don’t need me to write up Ertz as a good option. (back)
- Fourth-most on the team. (back)