Utilizing RotoViz’s suite of creative tools, metrics, and filterable stats (all of which just keep getting better!), I unearthed 14 key stats to help you crush your Week 7 NFL DFS lineups.
Vegas lines for Week 7
Reported lines are current as of October 16, 2019.1
|Date & Time||Favorite||Line||Underdog||Total|
|10/17 8:20 ET||Kansas City||-3||At Denver||48.5|
|10/20 1:00 ET||At NY Giants||-3||Arizona||50.5|
|10/20 1:00 ET||At Indianapolis||-1||Houston||48|
|10/20 1:00 ET||At Buffalo||-17||Miami||40.5|
|10/20 1:00 ET||Minnesota||-1||At Detroit||45|
|10/20 1:00 ET||At Green Bay||-5.5||Oakland||47|
|10/20 1:00 ET||Jacksonville||-4||At Cincinnati||43.5|
|10/20 1:00 ET||LA Rams||-3||At Atlanta||54|
|10/20 1:00 ET||San Francisco||-9.5||At Washington||41.5|
|10/20 4:05 ET||At Tennessee||-2||LA Chargers||40|
|10/20 4:25 ET||At Seattle||-3.5||Baltimore||50.5|
|10/20 4:25 ET||At Chicago||-3||New Orleans||38|
|10/20 8:20 ET||At Dallas||-3||Philadelphia||49|
|10/21 8:15 ET||New England||-9.5||At NY Jets||42.5|
KC @ DEN: The Chiefs have given up the second-most rushing yards to RBs over the last month
IMPLIED: KC 25.75, DEN 25.75 — TOTAL: 48.5
Phillip Lindsay should be in for a big game, as the Chiefs defense has allowed the second-most rush attempts against (28 per game), second-most rush yards against (143 per game), and fourth-most YPC against (5.1) over their last five games (via our NFL Stat Explorer).
ARZ @ NYG: The Giants have given up top-10 QB performances in four of their last five
IMPLIED: NYG 26.75, ARZ 23.75 — TOTAL: 50.5
Kyler Murray will smash in Week 7 against the Giants, who have given up top-10 fantasy performances to four of their last five QBs faced. The only QB they didn’t let score at least 23.6 FP against in that span was rookie Dwayne Haskins.
HOU @ IND: The Texans keep coughing up big games to WRs
IMPLIED: IND 24.5, HOU 23.5 — TOTAL: 48
Welcome to T.Y. Hilton chalk week. Here’s how the last five No. 1 WRs have fared against the Texans:
MIA @ BUF: The Dolphins have given up the second-most points to RBs this month
IMPLIED: BUF 28.75, MIA 11.75 — TOTAL: 40.5
Devin Singletary week? The rookie returns from injury to face the Dolphins, who have given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing RBs this month, the fifth-most EP2, and the second-most FPOE3. They were just dunked on by 127-year-old Adrian Peterson for 118 yards on 23 carries, and the Bills are massive 17-point home favorites.
MIN @ DET: The Lions have given up the second-most EP to WRs
IMPLIED: MIN 23, DET 22 — TOTAL: 45
Over their last five games, Detroit has given up the second most EP to enemy WRs (and the 13th-most actual points). This could be another big week for Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, or both. Per our Weekly Stats tool, Diggs led all WRs with 250 air yards and 167 actual yards last week.
OAK @ GB: Jamaal Williams had more opportunity than Aaron Jones in Week 6
IMPLIED: GB 26.25, OAK 20.75 — TOTAL: 47
Just as the title of this section says, Williams (28%) had more total opportunity than Jones (27%) in Green Bay’s Week 6 win over the Lions. Williams played more snaps (39 to 36), had more rushing attempts (14 to 11), and had near-equal targets (5 to 7). Jones had an off game in Week 6, which makes him a nice contrarian option. Williams will still likely be under-owned despite the breakout performance.
JAX @ CIN: Leonard Fournette is top seven in both rush attempts and targets
IMPLIED: JAX 23.75, CIN 19.75 — TOTAL: 43.5
Per the RotoViz Screener, Fournette is one of only five RBs to be handling at least 70% of a team’s rushing attempts (he’s at 77%), and of those five RBs, only Christian McCaffrey (45) has more targets than Fournette (36). He is third in rush attempts (115) and second in targets (36) among RBs. Fournette is now a true dual-threat RB, which makes him a good play every week, especially on DraftKings.
LAR @ ATL: This game will be fast-paced and a likely shootout
IMPLIED: LAR 28.5, ATL 25.5 — TOTAL: 54
This game has the highest total (54) on the slate for a reason: Per our Pace App, the Rams (15%) and Falcons (13%) both rank in the top-five in terms of no-huddle rate. The matchup should average a play once ever 24.1 seconds — second-fastest of the week.
SF @ WAS: Tevin Coleman is the true lead back in SF
IMPLIED: SF 25.5, WAS 16 — TOTAL: 41.5
Since returning from injury, Coleman has handled more snaps, rush attempts, and total opportunities than any other San Francisco RB, making him the clear-cut leader in the three-headed monster of a backfield.
LAC @ TEN: The Chargers rank bottom five in FPOE ceded to RBs
IMPLIED: TEN 21, LAC 19 — TOTAL: 40
Over the last five weeks, RBs against the Chargers have scored the fifth-most FPOE. The last two RBs they faced — Phillip Linsday (24.7 fantasy points) and James Conner (30.9 FPs) — ran roughshod on the Chargers D. This should be a good week to fire up Derrick Henry.
BAL @ SEA: This game might feature the most snaps of all contests
IMPLIED: SEA 27, BAL 23.5 — TOTAL: 50.5
Per the Pace App, the average number of snaps per 60 minutes to be expected when these two teams square off is 142 (71 per team). That would be the most snaps of any contest this weekend. This game has legitimate shootout potential.
|Plays Per 60 Minutes|
|Home||Away||Time||Home Tm||Away Tm||Avg|
|SEA||BAL||SUN 4:25 PM||69||73||71|
|ATL||LAR||SUN 1:00 PM||68||69||68.5|
|DAL||PHI||SUN 8:20 PM||68||69||68.5|
|IND||HOU||SUN 1:00 PM||68||68||68|
|NYJ||NE||MON 8:15 PM||60||72||66|
NO @ CHI: Better-than-it-looks spot for Michael Thomas?
IMPLIED: CHI 20.5, NO 17.5 — TOTAL: 38
This spot might not be as bad for Thomas as it looks on the surface. Chicago has coughed up above-average games to enemy WRs in three of their last four games, including Stefon Diggs (7-7-108-0), Paul Richardson (9-8-83-1), and Emmanuel Sanders (13-11-98-1).
PHI @ DAL: Dallas WRs have the fourth-best matchup of any team this week
IMPLIED: DAL 26, PHI 23 — TOTAL: 49
The Eagles defense has been pummeled by WRs this year (and previous years), and they now travel to Dallas to face the explosive Cowboys passing game (which might be without Amari Cooper). Per our Fantasy Streaming app, Cowboys WRs have the fourth-easiest matchup of the week. Philly was most recently handled by Stefon Diggs (11-7-167-3), and they have allowed at least one WR to top 100 yards in four of their last five. If Cooper plays, he’s a contrarian option. Michael Gallup is a great play regardless.
NE @ NYJ: Since Week 3, Sony Michel is third on the team in goal-line attempts
IMPLIED: NE 26, NYJ 16.5 — TOTAL: 42.5
New England might be phasing Michel out as their goal-line back. From Weeks 1-3, Michel had four carries from inside the five. He had another such carry in Week 4. In Weeks 5 and 6, however, Michel didn’t carry the ball at the goal line at all. Those honors went to Tom Brady (4) and Brandon Bolden (2)