Utilizing RotoViz’s suite of creative tools, metrics, and filterable stats (all of which just keep getting better!), I unearthed 14 key stats to help you crush your Week 9 NFL DFS lineups.
Vegas lines for Week 9
Reported lines are current as of October 30, 2019.1
|Date & Time||Favorite||Line||Underdog||Total|
|10/31 8:20 ET||San Francisco||-10||At Arizona||43|
|11/3 9:30 ET||Houston||-2||Jacksonville|
|11/3 1:00 ET||At Buffalo||-9.5||Washington||37|
|11/3 1:00 ET||At Carolina||-4||Tennessee||41.5|
|11/3 1:00 ET||At Philadelphia||-5||Chicago||43|
|11/3 1:00 ET||Minnesota||-2||At Kansas City||48.5|
|11/3 1:00 ET||NY Jets||-3||At Miami||40.5|
|11/3 1:00 ET||Indianapolis||-1||At Pittsburgh||43|
|11/3 4:05 ET||At Oakland||-2||Detroit||50.5|
|11/3 4:05 ET||At Seattle||-6||Tampa Bay||51.5|
|11/3 4:25 ET||Cleveland||-3||At Denver||39|
|11/3 4:25 ET||Green Bay||-3.5||At LA Chargers||47|
|11/3 8:20 ET||New England||-3.5||At Baltimore||45|
|11/4 8:15 ET||Dallas||-7||At NY Giants||48|
SF @ ARZ: Cardinals are the 2nd-fastest team; 49ers the slowest
IMPLIED: SF 26.5, ARZ 16.5 — TOTAL: 43
Per our Pace App, the Cardinals are the second-fastest team in terms of seconds per snap (24). The 49ers are the slowest in the NFL, at 28.8 seconds per snap. Related: The 49ers lead the NFL with a 58% rush rate (42% pass). Meanwhile, the Cardinals are among the pass-happiest teams, running just 38% of the time, and now without their top two RBs.
So who wins out in this battle of opposites? The Cardinals are so fast that this game will still feature a lot of snaps, with 135 total projected snaps, fourth-most among all games this weekend.
HOU @ JAX (In London): Leonard Fournette is due for a multi-TD game (but seriously this time)
IMPLIED: HOU 24.25, JAX 22.25 — TOTAL: 46.5
Fournette is first in the NFL with 163 rushing attempts, but he has just one TD to his name. Via our Weekly Stats tool, we see that a total of 11 other RBs have at least 110 rush attempts this season, and those RBs have scored an average of 5.5 rushing TDs. A major correction is coming soon, and it could be this week, as the Texans will be without superstar J.J. Watt. I will also keep highlighting Fournette’s impending boom until it happen, so let’s hope it comes this week.
WAS @ BUF: Terry McLaurin will find life hard against Buffalo
IMPLIED: BUF 23.25, WAS 13.75 — TOTAL: 37
McLaurin has been a cheap DFS stud all season, but you might want to look elsewhere in Week 9, as the Bills secondary has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to enemy WRs over the last five weeks. The best performance against the Bills was DeVante Parker‘s 10-5-55-1 line in Week 7, with the touchdown coming in the final 60 seconds of the game.
TEN @ CAR: The Panthers have given up 7 rushing TDs in the last 3 weeks
IMPLIED: CAR 22.75, TEN 18.75 — TOTAL: 41.5
Time to fire up Derrick Henry? The Titans are 4-point favorites (albeit on the road), and they now face a Panthers defense that is struggling against the run. Per the NFL Stat Explorer, The Panthers have allowed the 2nd-most FPOE2 to RBs over the last five weeks, the most YPC (5.1), and were just roasted by Tevin Coleman for 105 rushing yards and three TDs, and Fournette tagged them for 23-108-1 in Week 5.
CHI @ PHI: David Montgomery: 3-down workhorse?
IMPLIED: PHI 24, CHI 19 — TOTAL: 43
From Weeks 1-7, Montgomery handled 25% of Chicago’s offensive opportunities on 53% of the snaps. He had a 7% team target market share in that span. In Week 8, Montgomery the workhorse was unleashed as he handled 73% of snaps, 15% team target market share, and 45% of the team’s offensive opportunities.
MIN @ KC: Post-Mahomes world still revolves around Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce
IMPLIED: MIN 25.25, KC 23.25 — TOTAL: 48.5
Last week was KC’s first full game without Patrick Mahomes, but the ball distribution was even more tightly confined. Hill, Kelce, and Sammy Watkins each saw at least 23% team target market share. The rest of the passing offense was mostly an afterthought. The consistency of big plays won’t be the same, but the volume still makes these receivers good Week 9 DFS options.
NYJ @ MIA: Le’Veon Bell is due for positive TD regression
IMPLIED: NYJ 21.75, MIA 18.75 — TOTAL: 40.5
Bell’s rush attempt to TD ratio makes him a Fournette lite edition this year. Bell is still a monster workhorse, handling 78% of his team’s rushing attempts (third-highest in NFL) with 109 rush attempts. However, Bell has just one rushing TD on the year, joining Fournette (1) and Joe Mixon (0) as the only RBs to post at least 100 rush attempts without a score. He’s a good Week 9 DFS contrarian play against the hapless Dolphins.
IND @ PIT: Juju Smith-Schuster will keep the ball rolling
IMPLIED: IND 22, PIT 21 — TOTAL: 43
After a breakout Week 8 performance (21.3 PPR points, good for WR8 on the week), Smith-Schuster catches a Colts secondary that has struggled against WRs over the last month. In their last 5 games, Indy has allowed the 9th-most FPs to opposing WRs and the fourth-most FPOE. They have given up 100-yard games with a TD to Julio Jones (8-128-1), Byron Pringle (6-103-1), and DeAndre Hopkins (9-106-1) in that span.
DET @ OAK: Hit the lock button on Josh Jacobs
IMPLIED: OAK 26.25, DET 24.25 — TOTAL: 50.5
Jacobs draws a Lions defense that has given up five straight top-12 fantasy performances to enemy RBs. In that span, they have allowed the second-most fantasy points, fifth-most expect points, and eighth-most FPOE. RBs are averaging 110 yards on the ground against them in that span and an additional 61 yards through the air. As a home favorite against a soft rush D, this is a huge opportunity for Jacobs.
TB @ SEA: Bonceback week for Chris Godwin
IMPLIED: SEA 28.75, TB 22.75 — TOTAL: 51.5
Godwin rolled into Week 8 with 120-plus receiving yards in four of his previous five games, but he flopped against the Titans with just four catches for 43 scoreless yards while watching his teammate Mike Evans pop off. But Week 9 presents a great bounceback opportunity for Godwin (and another week for Evans to roll), as the Seahawks rank bottom 10 in targets, receptions, and receiving yards allowed to opposing WRs over the last month. This game also has the highest total on the slate.
CLE @ DEN: Courtland Sutton will be unleashed
IMPLIED: CLE 21, DEN 18 — TOTAL: 39
Sutton, Denver’s new No. 1, should bust off a big game in Week 9 against the Browns, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points, third-most expected points, and 11th-most FPOE to opposing WRs over the last five games. Only the run-heavy 49ers have had WRs that failed to produce against the Browns.
And in Week 8, the first action without Emmanuel Sanders, Sutton had a 21% team target market share. All other Denver WRs saw fewer than 10% of the targets.
GB @ LAC: Don’t forget about Jamaal Williams
IMPLIED: GB 25.25, LAC 21.75 — TOTAL: 47
Aaron Jones stole the show in Week 8, and his massive performance overshadowed a truly strong game from fellow Packers RB Williams, who scored twice and now has four TDs in his last three games with fantasy finishes of RB13 or better in each contest. The Packers RB duo draws a Chargers D that has allowed the eighth-most FP and 6th-most FPOE to opposing RBs over their last five games.
|Week||Attempts||RuYards||Receptions||ReYards||Total TDs||Fantasy Finish|
NE @ BAL: Lamar Jackson could be a good contrarian pivot
IMPLIED: NE 24.25, BAL 20.75 — TOTAL: 45
The Patriots D has obviously not faced any QB like Jackson this season, but the closest comp is Josh Allen, who, before getting knocked out of his Week 4 game against New England early, did rack up 26 rushing yards and a TD against the Pats fierce defense. Over their last five games, the Pats have allowed the 12th-most rushing yards to opposing QBs.
DAL @ NYG: Ezekiel Elliott will feast against the Giants
IMPLIED: DAL 27.5, NYG 20.5 — TOTAL: 48
Elliott, a 7-point road favorite, gets a Giants D that has allowed the eighth-most rushing attempts and yards to opposing RBs over the last 5 games. Elliott struggled against the Giants in Week 1 with just 53 yards, but keep in mind that he had just returned to the Cowboys just a few days before that game. Since then, he is averaging over 20 rushing attempts per game vs. the 13 he saw in Week 1. The Cowboys are also coming in fresh off a Week 8 bye.