Mike Beers has added the 2019 BestBall10s Player Win Rates Tracker to his suite of advanced best ball apps. This offseason RotoViz users deployed the FFPC Command Center, the multi-format Roster Construction Explorer, and the Exposures and ADP tools to plot strategy and hone tactics for the 2019 season. Now you can track the progress of your individual players and see how they’re contributing to your results.
Readers who have followed Mike’s Player Win Rates Tracker in past years are no doubt excited for this development, and we’re ecstatic to have the tool as part of our best ball suite this season. To give you a little bit of a taste today, let’s dive into a few of the top performers.
No. 1 Christian McCaffrey – 37.5%
These are insane numbers for McCaffrey. He’s been above 15% all season and jumped to his season-high win rate after a second game with 40-plus.
McCaffrey’s win rates are especially impressive at the price of a No. 2 overall pick.
No. 2 Austin Ekeler 28.2%
Ekeler owned an edge on McCaffrey heading into Week 4 and held up nicely in Melvin Gordon’s first game back.
The current star of our 2019 Zero RB Candidates list, Ekeler’s performance through five weeks would add rocket fuel to any type of construction. With an ADP of 88, those who drafted him during the summer are now reaping the benefits.
Can Ekeler maintain some semblance of his earlier pace with Gordon back? We can use the NFL Stat Explorer to see that Ekeler averaged 9.5 expected points (EP) in 2018 and 20.9 EP this season.
Mike Randle and I dig deeper into this question on tomorrow’s episode of the RotoViz Mailbag. The answer may surprise you.
No. 3 Chris Godwin – 21.9%
Scoring 72.7 points in two weeks helps Godwin jump from 9.5% to 21.9%.
Godwin was a featured member of our third-year WR breakout candidates. Far from being squeezed by Mike Evans and O.J. Howard, he’s emerged at their expense.
No. 4 D.J. Chark – 20.6%
Chark has recorded 15 or more points four times this season, and he ascends into rarified air with a 36.4-point outburst in Week 4.
Given his ADP of 219 and the emergence of Gardner Minshew, Chark may have the easiest time maintaining his league-winner status. Chark was our suggested Round 17 pick in Reverse Engineering a Monster, and monster now looks like an understatement. I look at any roster without him and wonder at what might have been.
No. 5 Cooper Kupp – 18.9%
Three consecutive weeks with 26 or more points pull Kupp into the top five. His ADP of 51 may have been deflated by questions about his recovery, and gutsy mid-summer drafters have a foundation receiver at a discount.
Curtis Patrick and I wanted Kupp for our FFPC Main Event for the same reason the third-year star was a best-ball focal point. He offered the least expensive exposure to the Rams passing offense. His improved target share suggests he’ll also be the highest-scorer of the star trio.
Kupp averaged 16.9 points on a 21% target share in 2018 and is up to 23.2 on a 29% share in 2019.
Find all of these weekly stat splits and fantasy scoring numbers in the Weekly Stats Explorer.
The Rest of the Top 10
- Keenan Allen 18.8%
- New England DEF 17.5%
- Will Fuller 17.5%
- Mark Andrews 16.9%
- Amari Cooper 16.5%
The MFL10 of Death VI
How am I doing in my quixotic efforts to win a fourth MFL10 of Death in five years?
I’m currently fourth with the favorites looking like Mike Clay and Scott Barrett. I trail them by 57 and 55 points respectively. I sent Scott a note after Week 1, congratulating him on his excellent deep picks. In addition to Chark and Andrews who show up in the top 10, Scott also selected Darren Waller, for two stud TEs in the 15th and 16th rounds.
Mike Clay’s lineup includes two top-10 players as well in Kupp and Cooper. If Todd Gurley stays healthy and Le’Veon Bell benefits from Sam Darnold’s return, it’s easy to see a scenario where he runs away with it.
What will I need to do to make a push?
I used the Single-Elite-RB construction we discussed in the Best Ball Workshop. Alvin Kamara (10.3%) provides a solid foundation for a WR corps with Mike Evans, T.Y. Hilton, Will Fuller, and Courtland Sutton all having win rates above 10%. If D.J. Moore (8.6%) and Calvin Ridley (8.1%) come on, the bye weeks should provide an opportunity to make up ground … especially if Matt Breida (10.4%) and Gerald Everett (9.6%) can build off of their Week 5 performances.
How Are the Dead Zone RBs Performing?
The RB Dead Zone is always a controversial topic, especially early in the season when preseason RB volume picks are often still performing well. Mike’s tool allows us to search for RBs with ADPs between 24 and 60 to examine them as a group.
In this range we currently have five RBs with above average win rates and 11 who come in below average.1 This balances to an extent when we consider that Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry have been victimized by poor results from best-ball teammates.2
What Changes Would I Make Now?
We may not be able to change our best ball rosters, but these insights can also inform our redraft and dynasty trade decisions. Of the 16 players, my outlook is the same for 15 of them.4
John Solis and Gardner Minshew changed my mind on Fournette. Our intrepid RDL 2.0 commissioner has been peppering me with pro-Fournette propaganda for months, and Minshew’s star turn has benefited the offense beyond Chark. One key stat helps move Fournette from land mine to dynasty trade target.
We’ve been subjected to a few humorous stretches of inefficiency from Fournette as a runner, but a bell cow with these 2019 target numbers can’t be ignored.
Image Credit: Tom Walko/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Austin Ekeler.
- Round 5, which isn’t technically part of the Dead Zone, was 0-for-4. (back)
- Their results are weighed down by the shape of the draft. (back)
- Kerryon Johnson is the other. (back)
- I’m also very impressed with Josh Jacobs, but am still looking for him to establish himself as the focal point in the receiving game as well. Through five weeks, his Expected Points breakdown features 48 ruEP and only 13 reEP. We’d prefer a better balance. Jacobs has outperformed due to 18.5 points over expectation as a runner. We probably shouldn’t expect such continued TD efficiency from a back in that caliber offense. (back)