Welcome to another edition of the 2019 Confident Cash Plays Series!
Hopefully you loaded up on last week’s free space starts at running back in Javian Hawkins and Rodney Smith! There were a couple misses at wide receiver, but most of them delivered sufficient value for us last week. Let’s see if we can keep the ball rolling in Week 7!
If you like GPP contests, Ryan Collinsworth has a piece for you every week as well! But for now, let’s dive into this week’s Confident Cash Plays.
Week 7 offers the deepest pool of quarterbacks thus far, with six options projected to easily eclipse 25 points. Let’s check it out:
|Quarterback||Week 7 Salary||Expected Points||Team||Points Per Game||Pass Comp + Rush Att Per Game||Implied Team Points||Opp Pass Yds Allowed Per Game||Opp Rush Yds Allowed Per Game|
|Anthony Gordon||8200||27.68||Washington State||36.59||37||28||222.2||103.6|
|Brock Purdy||8000||25.78||Iowa State||31.28||33.2||32.5||203.4||182.8|
|Jayden Daniels||6200||21.05||Arizona State||19.48||26.6||30.5||265.8||178.6|
The Stud Plays
Surprise! Jalen Hurts ($9000, Oklahoma) made the list again! Seriously, you can just put his name on your cash lineups in sharpie until further notice. The dude’s averaging 44 points per game, facing one of the biggest jokes of a pass defense in the country (sorry not sorry, Texas), and should pile up NCAA Football 14 video game numbers on Freshman difficulty. I wouldn’t care if his price was $15,000. Get him in the majority of your lineups this week.
Anthony Gordon isn’t a household name due to his poor national exposure playing for Washington State, but it doesn’t matter. Gordon’s been a stud so far. He’s averaging the most combined completions and carries per game among all Week 7 QBs and ranks third in points per game. He faces an average Arizona State defense, but he reports the second-highest QB projection in my model this week.
The Other Guys
Tua Tagovailoa is normally a no-brainer, but that isn’t the case this week. Texas A&M and Alabama are both well below average in plays per game and pace of play. Their combined game total (61) is likely too high, Texas A&M has been a solid defense against one of the toughest schedules in the country. Tagovailoa is still worth a stack with Devonta Smith or Jerry Jeudy, but he’s not a major priority for the first time this season.
Sam Ehlinger has dominated this season, averaging over 34 points per game. And hey, look! He gets to play Oklahoma this week. The game’s Vegas total is up to 75 points as of writing, so someone’s going to do some scoring. The only concern surrounding Ehlinger is how well the Sooners defense has played through five games.
Brock Purdy has put up pretty consistent numbers (over 31 points per game) in his second season as Iowa State’s starting QB. He’s dropped 500 total yards in a game, and he’s clicking with three solid WRs. The matchup isn’t perfect against West Virginia, but he’s the cheapest expensive quarterback on the slate with a safe floor.
Quentin Harris and Duke have come a long way from their Week 1 second-half meltdown against Alabama. Harris averages the second-highest opportunities per game on the slate and costs less than $8,000. Georgia Tech gets destroyed on the ground — where Harris excels.
Trevor Lawrence has not been God’s gift to college football this year like we expected, but that changes this week. Florida State is allowing nearly 450 total yards per game and over 300 through the air. Clemson is implied to score over 40 points with ease, making Lawrence a value for the first time this season.
Last, but not least, Arizona State QB Jayden Daniels gets to face a Washington State defense giving up 265 yards through the air and nearly 180 on the ground per game. He’s still somehow only $6,200, despite a perfect matchup for his dual-threat ability.
That’s a ton of QBs, but this is the deepest, most talented pool of QBs on the same slate all year. Here’s how to prioritize them if you’re diversifying:
Priority: (1) Hurts (duh), (2) Lawrence, (3) Daniels, (4) Gordon, (5) Tua, (6) Ehlinger, (7) Harris, (8) Purdy
If you thought the number of viable RBs was gross last week, just wait until you look at this slate. There’s a solid rotation of about a half-dozen players at the top end, but the bottom drops out quickly.
|Running Back||Week 7 Salary||Expected Points||Team||Points Per Game||Touches Per Game||Implied Team Points||Opp Pass Yds Allowed Per Game||Opp Rush Yds Allowed Per Game|
|Eno Benjamin||7500||20.76||Arizona State||24.06||23.8||30.5||265.8||178.6|
|Kylin Hill||7300||19.69||Mississippi State||23.12||23||30||209.6||167.4|
|Max Borghi||7400||14.85||Washington State||25.1||14.2||28||222.2||103.6|
Advising anyone to fade Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin) is similar to saying the same of Jalen Hurts. He’s nearly doubling the points per game average of every RB on the slate. That makes his $8,800 price tag interesting. Beware though, Michigan State has featured a brick-wall defense this year outside last week’s performance against Ohio State. It’s possibly the toughest rush defense on the slate.
The five-back stack from $7,100 to $7,500 in Travis Etienne (Clemson), D’Andre Swift (Georgia), Kylin Hill (Mississippi State), Max Borghi (Washington State), and Eno Benjamin (Arizona State) will be the defining inter-positional advantage this week.
- Benjamin boasts the largest average workload and the softest matchup on the ground. The Sun Devils’ implied point total just isn’t super high.
- Borghi offers a four-to-five reception head start over his alternatives, which offers an incredible floor. But he doesn’t have an easy rushing matchup.
- Hill offers similar opportunity to Benjamin, but his matchup is less of a cakewalk. In his favor, he’s been less TD-dependent than Benjamin this season.
- Swift and Etienne boast an advantage in implied team points, but both are also at a disadvantage in expected touch volume.
It seems like a mess, but my model makes it pretty clear for cash purposes.
- Benjamin and Hill offer the safest mix of opportunity and average production to date.
- Etienne and Swift will likely make early exits, but they could also blow up in limited action before that.
- Borghi is probably the lowest priority of the bunch, but he offers the safest floor given his receiving upside.
Deon Jackson ($5400, Duke) is the slam dunk free space on your DFS lineup BINGO card this week. He’s averaging 17 touches per game and faces a Georgia Tech defense giving up 250 yards on the ground each week (even to teams like Temple). If he isn’t in your lineup, then it’s likely that you actually hate money.
Zach Charbonnet ($5500, Michigan) has had a confusing weekly workload, but it’s mainly due to odd game script for the Wolverines so far. This week should be more straight forward though. Illinois just gave up over 200 yards to Minnesota RB Rodney Smith last week. Charbonnet is significantly out-touching all other Michigan backs and is in line for a substantial bounceback performance.
Trey Sermon ($5500, Oklahoma) has not received a strong weekly workload this year, because his QB has been the team’s leading rusher. However, Sermon is in a prime spot to punch in one to two TDs in a game where Oklahoma should score over 40 again.
Roschon Johnson ($5400, Texas) is the “backup” for Texas, but in reality, he has been alternating series with Keaontay Ingram so far. Somehow he’s almost $1,000 cheaper than Ingram in a projected high-scoring bout.
King Doerue ($5000, Purdue) nearly got blanked against Penn State’s top-five rush defense in Week 6. But in his previous game, Doerue saw 25 touches and three scores. Now he faces a Maryland team that will be without its starting QB, Josh Jackson. Doerue could easily eclipse 20 touches as the new(ish) starter for Purdue.
Lastly and definitely least, JaMycal Hasty ($4500, Baylor) gets one more shot here. He delivered a safe floor last week, and now he faces a defense giving up 188 yards on the ground per game. If he sees any positive TD regression, he’ll coast to double-digit points, which is killer for $4,500.
Priority: (1) Jackson, (2) Hill, (3) Benjamin, (4) Etienne, (5) Swift, (6) Borghi, (7) Charbonnet, (8) Doerue
There are many viable receiving options this week, but it wouldn’t be helpful to give you a player pool of sixty options. My model was very picky with receivers, reporting high point projections for very few players. There are virtually no glaringly mispriced WRs across the entire slate. But, these options should be trustworthy for you in cash, regardless of official projection.
|Name||Week 7 Salary||Expected Points||Team||Points Per Game||Touches Per Game||Implied Team Points||Opp Pass Yds Allowed Per Game||Opp Rush Yds Allowed Per Game|
|Deshaunte Jones||5400||13.72||Iowa State||20.49||7.8||32.5||203.4||182.8|
|Brandon Aiyuk||6200||11.97||Arizona State||17.5||4.8||30.5||265.8||178.6|
|Sam James||5400||9.5||West Virginia||16.3||7||22||230.8||117.2|
|Charlie Kolar||4200||9.5||Iowa State||11.88||4||32.5||203.4||182.8|
The first thing you may notice is that only eight teams are represented in my entire suggested receiver pool this week. It’s simple. So far this season, it has proven both wise and fruitful to hitch our wagon to implied points. This is especially important in a slate overflowing with viable WR options. The average implied team point total for the six receiver duos is 37.5. That 37.5-point average projects four to five TDs for each of those teams, many of which will go to their top WRs. Chase those points.
The only player I suggest whose team doesn’t have an above-average implied point total is Sam James (averaging seven receptions per game at $5,400 for Iowa State). He’s listed as questionable but all indications are that he will play.
But there is still one other standalone receiver in my pool that can be easily paired with his QB. Brandon Aiyuk ($6200, Arizona State) faces a soft Washington State secondary and is averaging about five touches per game. Daniels and Aiyuk should be the most explosive QB-WR tandem under $14,000 this week.
CeeDee Lamb ($7,200) and Jadon Haselwood ($4,900) are both fun options this week. Lamb has scored a TD in every game so far. Haselwood has the same number of catches as Charleston Rambo (who is the lone overpriced Sooners WR), but Haselwood is nearly $1,500 cheaper.
Jerry Jeudy ($7,600) and Devonta Smith ($6,500) are both averaging over 25 points per week but face a tough opponent this week in Texas A&M. Jeudy is still averaging nearly eight catches per game. Smith is coming off a five-TD performance and has only one dud game this year, yet he’s still somehow under $7,000. Wow. Ruggs is overpriced relative to his team target share and is also dealing with a hip pointer injury.
Devin Duvernay ($7,400) and Collin Johnson ($5,200) should be fun this week against Oklahoma. Duvernay is still averaging nearly 10 receptions per game. Johnson’s price is severely depressed (because he’s coming off injury), but he could easily garner the largest target share on the team. Again, the over/under on that game is above 75 points. There should be opportunity aplenty.
Denzel Mims ($7,100) and R.J. Sneed ($3,800) are incredible values this week too, despite playing for Baylor. They get to face a Texas Tech team giving up a ton of points right now. Mims is averaging almost six receptions per game. And Sneed is averaging over three catches per game and priced below $4,000.
Deshaunte Jones ($5,400) and Charlie Kolar ($4,200) don’t have a very nice matchup against West Virginia, but both present immense values for their price. Jones is averaging the second-most receptions per game among all WRs on the slate. Kolar is pulling in four receptions per game, yet he only costs about $4,000.
Last but not least, Tee Higgins ($6,300) and Justyn Ross ($5,900) might finally offer some trustworthy value. As stated a bit earlier, Florida State is the softest pass defense on the slate. Both Higgins and Ross are about $1,000 cheaper than the presumedly elite options this week, but both players offer comparable upside based on their expected opportunity, implied points, and matchup. These two future NFL studs deserve to be paired with Lawrence often this weekend (especially Higgins).
Priority: (1) Jones, (2) Higgins, (3) Lamb, (4) Smith, (5) Jeudy, (6) Mims, (7) Aiyuk, (8) Duvernay, (9) James, (10) Ross
And that’s all folks! Hope your teams kill it in the main slate of Week 7 College Football! Make sure to check out Devy Weekly to learn more about breakout studs every single week of the season. Please find me on Twitter @FF_TravisM to chat more about all things college football and NFL! And as always, keep living that Dynasty Life!