Utilizing RotoViz’s suite of creative tools, metrics, and filterable stats (all of which just keep getting better!), I unearthed 15 key stats to help you crush your Week 5 NFL DFS lineups.
Vegas lines for Week 5
Reported lines are current as of October 2, 2019.1
|*Date & Time*||Favorite||Line||Underdog||Total|
|10/3 8:20 ET||At Seattle||-1.5||LA Rams||49|
|10/6 1:00 ET||Baltimore||-3.5||At Pittsburgh||44.5|
|10/6 1:00 ET||Chicago||-5||Oakland||40.5|
|10/6 1:00 ET||At Cincinnati||-3.5||Arizona||47.5|
|10/6 1:00 ET||At Carolina||-3.5||Jacksonville||41|
|10/6 1:00 ET||Minnesota||-5.5||At NY Giants||44|
|10/6 1:00 ET||New England||-15.5||At Washington||43|
|10/6 1:00 ET||At Philadelphia||-13.5||NY Jets||44|
|10/6 1:00 ET||At New Orleans||-3.5||Tampa Bay||47|
|10/6 1:00 ET||At Houston||-5||Atlanta||48.5|
|10/6 1:00 ET||At Tennessee||-3||Buffalo||38.5|
|10/6 4:05 ET||At LA Chargers||-6.5||Denver||44.5|
|10/6 4:25 ET||At Dallas||-3.5||Green Bay||47|
|10/6 8:20 ET||At Kansas City||-11||Indianapolis||56.5|
|10/7 8:15 ET||At San Francisco||-3.5||Cleveland||46.5|
LAR @ SEA: Cooper Kupp is a fantasy machine
IMPLIED: SEA 25.25, LAR 23.75 — TOTAL: 49
Oh, and his teammate, Robert Woods, is fifth with 65.5 EP.
BAL @ PIT: Juju Smith-Schuster is third on the team in target share since Week 3
IMPLIED: BAL 24, PIT 20.5 — TOTAL: 44.5
Over the last two weeks, with Mason Rudolph under center, Smith-Schuster ranks third on the team with a 20% target market share. Ahead of him are James Conner (23%) and Diontae Johnson (21%).
CHI @ OAK3: Is this a Tarik Cohen week?
IMPLIED: CHI 22.75, OAK 17.75 — TOTAL: 40.5
Over the last three weeks, Chicago’s defense has given up the sixth-, eighth-, and third-most expected points to RBs — and most of that has come through the air, according to the NFL Stat Explorer tool. RBs against Chicago have been targeted 14, 8, and 16 times over the last three weeks, respectively.
ARZ @ CIN: Andy Dalton bounceback week?
IMPLIED: CIN 25.5, ARZ 22 — TOTAL: 47.5
This is Dalton’s easiest matchup until Week 13, and nobody will play him after he wet the bed in Week 4 with 151 yards, no TDs, 1 INT, 8 sacks, and 0 impressive plays. The Cardinals have given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing QBs.
JAX @ CAR: Potential down game from Christian McCaffrey?
IMPLIED: CAR 22.25, JAX 18.75 — TOTAL: 41
McCaffrey is never a bad play because of his monster volume — he has 117 opportunities … and no other player has more than 97 — but the low over/under on this game (41) could be some cause for concern, as McCaffrey historically performs significantly worse in games with low totals.
MIN @ NYG: Dalvin Cook is fourth among all RBs in target share
IMPLIED: MIN 24.75, NYG 19.25 — TOTAL: 44
Dalvin Cook has a 19% team target market share — good for fourth-best in the NFL behind Le’Veon Bell, McCaffrey, and James White.
NE @ WAS: Josh Gordon could have a ceiling game
IMPLIED: NE 29.25, WAS 13.75 — TOTAL: 43
Washington has ranked bottom-10 in terms of fantasy points allowed to WRs in three of four games this season — and bottom-five in fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) allowed in those games, too. Washington has allowed the second-highest RACR,4 third-most PPR points, and second-most FPOE to WRs over their last five regular season games.
NYJ @ PHI: Carson Wentz has been a fantasy QB1 every week
IMPLIED: PHI 28.75, NYJ 15.25 — TOTAL: 44
Wentz has finished as a fantasy QB1 every week this season. Dating back to the start of 2017, he has been a fantasy QB1 82% of the time.
TB @ NO: Jameis Winston is the No. 1 QB in fantasy the last 2 weeks
IMPLIED: NO 25.25, TB 21.75 — TOTAL: 47
The Tampa Bay offense has turned it around over the last two weeks, and Winston’s fantasy results are reaping the rewards. He’s the top fantasy QB in all scoring formats in Weeks 3 and 4 combined.
ATL @ HOU: Will Fuller is 11th in Air Yards but 51st in actual yards
IMPLIED: HOU 26.75, ATL 21.75 — TOTAL: 48.5
He’s also the only player with at least 380 air yards that has yet to score a TD. His big week is on its way, and he could end up being a Week 5 DFS winner.
BUF @ TEN: Marcus Mariota averages less than 10 PPG when the O/U is this low
IMPLIED: TEN 20.75, BUF 17.75 — TOTAL: 38.5
Using our Game Splits tool, we see that, in his career, Mariota has played in five games in which the over/under is below 40. He averages fewer than 10 fantasy PPG in such games, and he has never thrown a TD when the Vegas line is this low.
DEN @ LAC: Keenan Allen has the second-highest ceiling of all WRs this week
IMPLIED: LAC 25.5, DEN 19 — TOTAL: 44.5
Using our Game Level Similarity Projections, we see that Keenan Allen has the second-highest ceiling game5, with a ceiling of 25 PPR points.
GB @ DAL: Aaron Rodgers scores 8 fewer PPG without Davante Adams
IMPLIED: DAL 25.25, GB 21.75 — TOTAL: 47
Since 2014, Rodgers has played six games without Adams and 69 with Adams. In this six games without Adams, Rodgers has scored over eight fewer fantasy PPG, and he has thrown just 1.33 TDs per game compared to 2.14 with Adams. Adams is unlikely to play in Week 5, which means your DFS lineups will need to adjust.
IND @ KC: Jacoby Brissett is third in expected points since Week 2
IMPLIED: KC 33.75, IND 22.75 — TOTAL: 56.5
Since Week 2, Brissett ranks third among QBs in expected fantasy points, with 67.8. In that span, he ranks seventh in overall fantasy points.
CLV @ SF: Jeff Wilson Jr. handles 83% of SF’s goal line attempts
IMPLIED: SF 25, CLV 21.5 — TOTAL: 46.5
Using the RotoViz Screener, we see that RB Jeff Wilson Jr. has handled 83% of San Francisco’s rush attempts from inside the five. Raheem Mostert is the only other San Francisco RB to receive a carry in this area, and he has just one. Wilson has converted four of his five rushes from inside the five into TDs.