Large-field GPPs are primarily won in three key areas: 1) player projections, 2) roster construction, and 3) ownership.
Groupthink can run rampant through the fantasy football grapevines and cause DFSers to concentrate on just one scenario in a player’s possible range of outcomes. What was once a good play in a vacuum can become sub-optimal as chalk. And what may feel thin at first may actually be plus-EV at low ownership.
One of the benefits of using the RotoViz Lineup Optimizer is that it provides information that is unbiased and unaware of public touting. Our goal here is to uncover players and roster constructions that are going overlooked by the public and can help vault us to the top of the leaderboards to bink a large GPP prize.
We’re going to switch it up this week and start with the top values and overall plays at each position, then at the end walk through the optimal lineup.
Top QB Play – Deshaun Watson ($8,300)
The Game Level Similarity Projections (GLSP) that power the DFS Lineup Optimizer are drooling over Watson this week. He’s projected to be both the top value and top raw scorer in Week 7.
Watson has already flashed his spiked-week potential in four of six games this season. But he may not even be that chalky since the Texans have a modest implied team total (23). The benefit of rostering Watson in GPPs is that it’s easy to figure out who to stack him with given the concentrated target distribution. DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller are combining for a 42% target share and are both in the top 13 in the NFL in air yards per game.
Contrarian Option – Josh Allen ($7,700)
While a shootout is not likely against the Dolphins, QB projections are tightly tied to team totals, and the Bills have the second-highest on the slate (28.75). The Matchup viewer in the NFL Stat Explorer shows the Dolphins are allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. Allen is GLSP’s the second-best QB value and second projected scorer.
Shootout Potential – Matt Ryan ($7,900) and Jared Goff ($7,800)
The Rams at Falcons game easily has the highest total of the week at 54.5. The Falcons have fully embraced a pass-first philosophy, as Ryan leads the NFL in pass completions and touchdowns, and is second in passing yards. While the Rams are coming off an embarrassing home loss, the Falcons defense is allowing the second-most passing yards per game to opposing QBS. If Goff can rebound, this game even has a chance to go over the total. One factor increasing the probability of that happening is the pace of play, as the teams combine for the second-fastest pace of the week.
Top RB Play – David Johnson ($7,400)
Like Watson, Johnson is also the top-value and projected scorer at his position. As seen above, the Cardinals at Giants game is projected to be the fastest-paced game of the week, which will allow players to have plenty of opportunity to accumulate fantasy points.
FanDuel continues to underprice Cardinals players, which we’ll see again later on in this article. Johnson is the 9th highest priced RB, yet is fourth in expected fantasy points per game and has been an RB1 in five of six games.
Dalvin Cook ($8,300) and Kerryon Johnson ($6,800) face each other this week, and both are underpriced for their roles. Leonard Fournette and Saquon Barkley also have top-five projections, but GLSP doesn’t consider them to be great points-per-dollar options.
Contrarian Option – Devin Singletary ($5,800)
The game environment sets up well for Singletary, as the Bills are huge home favorites with a high implied team total, and the Dolphins are allowing the second-most fantasy points to RBs.
Singletary has been out since Week 2 due to a hamstring injury but should be fully healthy after the team’s bye. We haven’t been able to see much from Singletary, but it was encouraging to see Josh Allen fed him six targets in the season opener. While this will likely be a split backfield between Singletary and Frank Gore, the Bills may want to see what they have in their rookie in what should be an easy win.
FanDuel Pricing Mistake – Tyler Boyd ($5,600) and Larry Fitzgerald ($5,600)
There must be an error in the FanDuel pricing algorithm for Larry Fitzgerald because he’s been priced around $5,600 every week and has been one of the highest owned WRs every week, and FanDuel still hasn’t adjusted his salary up. Fitzgerald is 10th in expected fantasy points per game and is a matchup that could shootout. As mentioned earlier, the Cardinals at Giants game is the fastest-paced game of the week with the second-highest game total (50.5).
Tyler Boyd has been priced in the low-to-mid $6k range for most of the season and is now the 25th highest priced WR. FanDuel has severely penalized Boyd for his lack of on-the-field production where he ranks 30th in fantasy points per game. However, Boyd is sixth in expected fantasy points per game, so opportunity-based positive regression suggests he’s a screaming value.
Stacking Partner – Calvin Ridley ($5,500)
We already highlighted the Rams at Falcons game as a potential shootout that we should be looking at for tournaments. Ridley can be stacked with Matt Ryan or used as a “bring back” option with Jared Goff. RotoViz was beating the Ridley drum all offseason, while the rest of the industry said to fade him for his negative touchdown regression, so we’re definitely not going to miss out on Ridley if this game does shoot out.
Cardinals Flow Chart – Evan Engram ($6,800)
Al Zeidenfeld’s Flow Chart is to roster whatever TE is playing the Cardinals. We did it at least with Austin Hooper, who smashed for 21.7 FanDuel points. The fantasy football gods have blessed us with a healthy Evan Engram just in time for the Cardinals matchup, which the Fantasy Strength-of-Schedule Streaming App still shows is the softest for TEs.
Sunday Night Football Pricing – Hunter Henry ($5,700)
Since pricing comes out before the Sunday Night games, Henry is listed at an affordable price for Week 7 even though he is coming off a monster 100-yard, two-touchdown performance in his first game since Week 1. The Chargers at Titans game has a low total (40), and the Chargers may not be forced to pass 44 times if they don’t get down huge early again. So Henry does have a low floor. However, we only care about his upside in tournaments. It seems like Rivers has an eye for Henry near the end zone, as Henry is third among TEs in red-zone opportunity market share (15.8%).
Possibly Under-Owned? Mark Andrews ($6,700)
Mark Andrews may go slightly under-owned since he’s sandwiched between Engram ($6,800) and Hooper ($6,600), and George Kittle ($7,100) is just a few hundred more. Any time someone is under-owned with this stat line, I’m going to be overweight on them.
Week 7 DFS FanDuel Lineup Optimizer
Below is the optimal lineup using the RotoViz Lineup Optimizer.
I forced the optimizer to include a stack since it is basically mandatory to stack your quarterback with at least one pass-catcher to take down a FanDuel GPP. I configured the flex to fill with a running back, since RBs tend to provide more upside in FanDuel’s half-PPR scoring format. I also blocked players I will not consider in my player pool, such as Case Keenum.
The Deshaun Watson-Will Fuller stack is the optimizer’s favorite stack this week. Fuller will always be someone I tend to play at lower ownership and start to fade at higher ownership, so that will be important to monitor throughout the weekend.
Constructing a Game Stack
I generally like to build a game stack in tournaments to increase the correlation within the lineup. Since Watson is a running QB, you only need to stack him with one pass-catcher. If this were Matt Ryan, then I would almost always stack him with two pass-catchers.
To make the above optimal lineup a game stack, I would probably get off of Michael Thomas for T.Y. Hilton. Hilton will be healthier coming out of the Week 6 bye, and will likely be low owned. He gets to be at home indoors on the fast track against a Texans secondary allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing WRS.