Utilizing RotoViz’s suite of creative tools, metrics, and filterable stats (all of which just keep getting better!), I unearthed 14 key stats to help you crush your Week 6 NFL DFS lineups.
Vegas lines for Week 6
Reported lines are current as of October 9, 2019.1
|Date & Time||Favorite||Line||Underdog||Total|
|10/10 8:20 ET||At New England||-17||NY Giants||41.5|
|10/13 9:30 ET||Carolina||-2||Tampa Bay|
|10/13 1:00 ET||At Baltimore||-11.5||Cincinnati||48|
|10/13 1:00 ET||Seattle||-1.5||At Cleveland||47.5|
|10/13 1:00 ET||At Kansas City||-4.5||Houston||55|
|10/13 1:00 ET||At Jacksonville||-1||New Orleans||44.5|
|10/13 1:00 ET||At Minnesota||-3||Philadelphia||43.5|
|10/13 1:00 ET||Washington||-3.5||At Miami||41|
|10/13 4:05 ET||At LA Rams||-3.5||San Francisco||50.5|
|10/13 4:05 ET||Atlanta||-2.5||At Arizona||51|
|10/13 4:25 ET||Dallas||-7||At NY Jets||43|
|10/13 4:25 ET||At Denver||-2.5||Tennessee||39|
|10/13 8:20 ET||At LA Chargers||-7||Pittsburgh||41|
|10/14 8:15 ET||At Green Bay||-4||Detroit||47|
NYG @ NE: Sony Michel scores 2x more points when 10-point favorites
IMPLIED: NE 29.25, NYG 12.25 — TOTAL: 41.5
When the Patriots are at least 10-point favorites, Michel scores 15.14 PPR points per game, vs. 7.79 when favored by 9.5 (or less).
CAR @ TB (In London): Mike Evans is still the top WR in Tampa based on Air Yards
IMPLIED: CAR 25, TB 23 — TOTAL: 48
Evans has 603 air yards this season, versus 508 for Chris Godwin. However, Evans’ RACR2 is 0.61, versus 1.01 for Godwin. The league average this season is 0.76. After a dud in Week 5, Evans is due for positive regression soon.
CIN @ BAL: Tyler Boyd is 4th among WRs in Expected Points
IMPLIED: BAL 29.75, CIN 18.25 — TOTAL: 48
Boyd has 82.5 EP3, fourth among WRs behind Cooper Kupp, Keenan Allen, and Michael Thomas.
SEA @ CLV: Odell Beckham Jr. is 10th in EP
IMPLIED: SEA 24.5, CLV 23 — TOTAL: 47.5
Despite the ho-hum start to the season, OBJ is 10th in EP, but 30th in actual PPR points. He’s going to see positive regression soon and could be a Week 6 DFS winner.
HOU @ KC: Deshaun Watson has never played in a game with a total this high
IMPLIED: KC 29.75, HOU 25.25 — TOTAL: 55
Watson has played in five games with a Vegas total above 48, and in those games, he has scored 31.88 PPG, vs. 26.1 when the total was under 48. His PPR points scored are strongly impacted (positively) by the higher Vegas total. This matchup against KC has the highest Vegas total of any game in Watson’s young career. He could be in for a second explosion week in a row.
NO @ JAX: Gardner Minshew is the fantasy QB11 this year
IMPLIED: JAX 22.75, NO 21.75 — TOTAL: 44.5
Minshew has finished as a QB1 in two of five games, and he has been a high-end QB2 in the other three. He this week faces a Saints defense that has ranked bottom-14 in fantasy points given up to QBs in four of five games, and bottom-8 in FPOE ceded to QBs in four of five games as well. Besides being a top streaming option, he’s also in play as a Week 6 DFS sleeper.
PHI @ MIN: No QB has finished in the top-15 against Minnesota this season
IMPLIED: MIN 23.25, PHI 20.25 — TOTAL: 43.5
Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers had the best QB performances against the Vikings this season in Weeks 1 and 2, respectively. Both finished outside of the top 15. The last 3 QBs the Vikes have faced have all finished as QB21 or worse. Carson Wentz has his work cut out for him.
WAS @ MIA: A big game for Preston Williams is on the horizon
IMPLIED: WAS 22.25, MIA 18.75 — TOTAL: 41
Preston Williams leads Miami with a 22% team target market share and has the most expected points on the team, with 47.1. He this week faces a Washington defense that has given up top-13 performances to WRs in four of five games this season, while allowing seven touchdowns to opposing No. 1 WRs.
SF @ LAR: There should be over 140 total plays in this game
IMPLIED: LAR 27, SF 23.5 — TOTAL: 50.5
According to our new Pace app, the SF-LAR game is likely to see the most total plays (average of 71.5 each). Additionally, when the game script is neutral4, this matchup averages the fewest seconds per play, at 25.8.
ATL @ ARZ: Both teams rank in the top 5 in seconds per play
IMPLIED: ATL 26.75, ARZ 24.25 — TOTAL: 51
This game could turn into a track meet, as both the Falcons (24.5, fifth) and Cardinals (23.3, first) rank in the top five in terms of seconds per snap, per our Pace app. The Falcons (72%) also lead the league in pass rate, while the Cardinals (65%) rank sixth.
DAL @ NYJ: Amari Cooper will keep rolling in Week 6
IMPLIED: DAL 25, NYJ 18 — TOTAL: 43
Per the NFL Stat Explorer tool, WRs have crushed the Jets this season, as New York has given up three top-10 fantasy performances to enemy wideouts in five games this season. The Jets have allowed a line of 5-60-1 for better to four of five opposing WRs, with spike weeks (6-161-1 to Odell Beckham Jr. and 7-123-1 to John Brown) mixed in. Cooper is in play in both cash and GPPs.
TEN @ DEN: Phillip Lindsay’s toughest matchup of the season
IMPLIED: DEN 20.75, TEN 18.25 — TOTAL: 39
Using our Strength of Schedule app, we see that this is Lindsay’s toughest matchup all year. The Titans have only allowed two RBs to score against them all season — and that includes rushing and receiving.
PIT @ LAC: Austin Ekeler and Melvin Gordon had equal opportunity in Week 5
IMPLIED: LAC 24, PIT 17 — TOTAL: 41
The Chargers gave Gordon 75% of the team’s rush attempts (19% for Ekeler), though Ekeler gobbled up a massive 16 targets compared to six for Gordon. In the end, Ekeler (31%) and Gordon (29%) each handled about equal opportunity in Gordon’s return. Ekeler was far more efficient (24.3 PPR points vs. 7.8 for Gordon), but a near-equal split — or even one that starts to favor Gordon — can be expected moving forward.
DET @ GB: Big game in store for Kerryon Johnson
IMPLIED: GB 25.5, DET 21.5 — TOTAL: 47
The Packers’ defense is much improved, but they are still getting gashed by opposing RBs. The Pack have coughed up top-12 fantasy performances to enemy RBs in four of five games this season, and opposing RB1s have tallied seven total TDs against GB in the last four games.