Who are the best plays for the Week 5 DFS primetime slate on DraftKings and FanDuel? Tyler Loechner runs through notes on the primetime short slate featuring SNF/MNF games.1
DSF Week 5 Primetime Slate
|Home||Away||Spread||Favorite Implied||Underdog Implied||Vegas Total|
|Kansas City Chiefs||Indianapolis Colts||KC -11||33.75||22.75||56.5|
|San Francisco 49ers||Cleveland Browns||SF -4||25.25||21.25||46.5|
DFS Week 5 Primetime Slate theory thoughts:
- The Sunday night game (Colts @ Chiefs) is a million times more enticing than the Monday night game (Browns @ 49ers), but, as usual on a two-game slate, you’ll want exposure to both games, as there is value on all four teams.
- There are some major injury items to keep tabs on, particularly for the Colts, as both Marlon Mack and T.Y. Hilton are questionable for the game (though they did practice late in the week). If either player is out, it opens the door for backup Colts WRs — like Zach Pascal — to be interesting dart throws on the short slate.
- Deciding what to do at the TE position could make or break your lineup, as both Travis Kelce and George Kittle are on this slate. Which one do you choose? Or do you play both? Or do you go completely against the grain and roll with one of Indianapolis’ TEs?
Chalk: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
DK – QB1; FD – QB1
Mahomes is always an incredible play, but he’s even more enticing on this short slate as the far-out best QB option. The Colts D has allowed eighth-most and ninth-most FPOE2 to QBs over the last two weeks, and Kansas City’s team total of 33.5 is the second-highest of Mahomes’ young career. This is a smash spot.
Contrarian: Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
DK – QB4; FD – QB2
There’s no getting around the fact that Mayfield has had a rough start to the 2019 season — and far below expectations — but I do think he’s the best contrarian option on this short slate. He stacks well with Nick Chubb and Odell Beckham Jr. (see below), and he should be low owned with so many people focused on the objectively better IND-KC tilt. I like Mayfield more on DraftKings, where he’s the cheapest of the four starting QBs (he’s second-most expensive on FanDuel, so much less interesting). Mayfield has scored -10.8 FPOE, a possible sign that he’s due for positive regression, and he makes for a nice leverage play if you decide to fade Chubb.
Chalk: Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
DK – RB1; FD – RB1
Even as a 4-point road underdog, Chubb is the chalk RB on this Week 5 DFS primetime slate. Chubb has slayed out this season, with the sixth-most EP3 among RBs leading into Week 5 and the fourth-most FPOE. He’s handling 42% of Cleveland’s offensive opportunities — tied for fourth-most among all players in the NFL in terms of percentage of team opportunities — and he has now proven multiple times in his career that he’s capable of a slate-breaking play at any moment.
Contrarian: Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts
DK – RB5; FD – RB2
Mack is listed as questionable, but he did practice in full on Friday, an indication that he should play on Sunday night. The Chiefs have given up the fifth- and fourth-most rushing yards to opposing RBs each of the last two weeks, and they have ceded top-10 YPC to enemy backs in all four games this year. Mack has performed significantly worse as a big underdog throughout his career, so this is far from a slam-dunk spot, but I am very interested to see him in a soft matchup with a Vegas total so high it literally breaks Mack’s chart:
Chalk: Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns
DK – WR1; FD – WR1
Beckham’s 27% team target market share ranks eighth in the NFL (and first in Cleveland), and he’s easily the best playmaking WR available on this slate. The 49ers have given up top-12 efforts in terms of FPOE to WRs in two straight games, and they gave up the fifth-most fantasy points to Cincinnati WRs in Week 2. Additionally, the 49ers have given up the most YAC to WRs in two straight games. Related: OBJ ranks top-10 in YAC among WRs.
Contrarian: T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts
DK – WR4; FD – WR3
Hilton missed Week 4, and he’s questionable for Week 5, but he practiced on both Thursday and Friday, so it’s looking like he’ll play. This is the highest over/under game Hilton has played in over his last 70 contests, and he draws a Kansas City defense that gave up the sixth-most fantasy points to WRs in Week 1 and the fifth-most fantasy points to the position in Week 4. According to our Strength of Schedule app, this is the easiest matchup Hilton will have all season.
Contrarian: Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
DK – WR9; FD – WR10
Through three games, Samuel ranks second in San Francisco4 with a 16% team target market share. His 114 Air Yards are second on the team5 and his 101 YAC ranks first. While the Browns defense started the season strong, they have given up the most and 7th-most fantasy points to opposing WRs over the last two games.
Chalk: George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
DK – TE2; FD – TE2
Travis Kelce is obviously also a chalk play at TE on this slate, and it’s not hard to get both TEs into your lineup if that’s what you want to do. But if forced to choose, I’ll take Kittle and his price discount, as he gets his best matchup of the season outside of two tilts against the Cardinals, per our Strength of Schedule app.
The 49ers also have the third-highest implied team total in any of Kittle’s last 32 games, and the Browns have ceded over 20 fantasy points to opposing TEs in two of four games this year.6
Contrarian: Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts
DK – TE4; FD – TE5
Doyle’s target count has climbed each week this season — 2, 3, 4, 8, — and he caught his first touchdown of the season last week. He faces a Chiefs defense that has given up top-12 performances to fantasy TEs in three straight weeks.7 Over the last five regular season games, the Chiefs defense has allowed the most targets, most receptions, and most YAC8 to TEs.
Image Credit: Roy K. Miller/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: George Kittle.
- An important note: I’m writing this column with tournaments and GPPs top of mind. Cash game plays on short slates are usually easier to figure out because the options are so thin; tournaments require quite a bit of game theory, which can be half the fun. (back)
- Fantasy points over expectation. (back)
- Expected points. (back)
- Behind George Kittle. (back)
- Behind Marquise Goodwin. (back)
- Once against the Titans and Delanie Walker, and again against the Ravens and Mark Andrews. (back)
- Oakland, Baltimore, and Detroit. (back)
- Yards after catch. (back)