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Week 7 DraftKings Targets: Great Matchups Abound

Last week saw the first hiccup in cash games on the season. I cashed about half of my head-to-heads but did not get to the cash line in double-ups. Tournaments also did not go well, and it resulted from one late change. The Jay Glazer report that Tyreek Hill would be rotated in moved me off of him and onto Kupp in most spots, and that was the difference in both cash and tournament cash lines.

This week for cash we have some very attractive high priced RBs and we will explore how to make three of them fit, particularly in the WR section. Let’s get to it and start off with the top games to target.

Top Games

Rams at Falcons

You don’t need me to tell you that this highest total game of the week is one to attack, but we do need to dive into which pieces are the most attractive and which ones will be the chalkiest. On the Rams side, early indications are that Todd Gurley ($6,400) will be back in the lineup, and will have just massive touchdown equity. He would fall short of being a cash play for me but he would be very much in play in tournaments.

More attractively, the passing game of the Rams is in dire need of this bounceback spot in Atlanta. The Falcons simply do nothing well on the defensive side of the ball, but in a game that is likely a scoring race, Jared Goff ($6,200) is more attractive. Let’s check in on the RotoViz Stat Explorer to see just how nice this spot is for Goff.

Quarterbacks Against ATL: Last 5 Regular Season Games
Year Week Team VS. PPR PPR Rk EP EP Rk FPOE FPOE Rk
2019 2 PHI ATL 21.05 11 29.1 1 -8 31
2019 3 IND ATL 23.9 12 24.6 5 -0.7 18
2019 4 TEN ATL 25.55 6 12.9 27 12.7 1
2019 5 HOU ATL 46 1 19 12 27 1
2019 6 ARI ATL 32.2 3 25.2 5 7 3
Average 29.7 1 22.2 4 7.6 2

As you can see, even floor outcomes are useful enough against this joke of a defense. They are also putrid against wide receivers.

Wide Receivers Against ATL: Last 5 Regular Season Games
Year Week Team VS. PPR PPR Rk EP EP Rk FPOE FPOE Rk
2019 2 PHI ATL 36.1 17 36.4 11 -0.3 20
2019 3 IND ATL 41.2 11 37.6 12 3.6 18
2019 4 TEN ATL 49.6 5 20.5 28 29.1 1
2019 5 HOU ATL 79.7 1 44.5 5 35.2 1
2019 6 ARI ATL 33.9 10 33.5 13 0.4 11
Average 48.1 2 34.5 9 13.6 1

All three Rams wide receivers are in play for tournaments. Cooper Kupp ($7,400) will be popular but is the best play. Robert Woods ($5,900) and Brandin Cooks ($5,400) will both be miles behind Kupp in ownership and are very sound leverage plays, with Woods being the more favorable by my view.

With Atlanta being this bad against wide receivers, they surely can’t also be that bad against tight ends, can they?

Well …

Tight Ends Against ATL: Last 5 Regular Season Games
Year Week Team VS. PPR PPR Rk EP EP Rk FPOE FPOE Rk
2019 2 PHI ATL 17.2 6 31 1 -13.8 32
2019 3 IND ATL 20.8 6 14.1 10 6.7 4
2019 4 TEN ATL 2.9 27 4.3 25 -1.4 23
2019 5 HOU ATL 19.1 5 7.6 18 11.5 1
2019 6 ARI ATL 15.2 10 9.7 18 5.5 5
Average 15 7 13.3 8 1.7 9

Gerald Everett ($3,700) remains favorably priced, will be behind the tier of five other tight ends in ownership and is in a post-hype spot after the Rams crashed and burned on offense last week. With Gurley included, there are five options to double stack with Goff and you should cover each combo. Of the group, only Kupp has cash viability but will be difficult to fit. On the Falcons side, the matchup is sneaky good and we haven’t fully adjusted to the reality of the Rams defense being exploitable.

Quarterbacks Against LAR: Last 5 Regular Season Games
Year Week Team VS. PPR PPR Rk EP EP Rk FPOE FPOE Rk
2019 2 NO LAR 12.25 28 16.8 19 -4.5 26
2019 3 CLE LAR 11.65 30 24.2 6 -12.5 32
2019 4 TB LAR 33.15 1 21.5 6 11.6 2
2019 5 SEA LAR 32.6 4 15.4 18 17.2 2
2019 6 SF LAR 16.55 19 23.1 9 -6.6 22
Average 21.2 11 20.2 8 1 15

As you can see, the teams that went pass heavy against them had real success, and make no mistake, Matt Ryan ($6,300) and company will be equally pass heavy as Tampa was, and more effective. A reminder Ryan has gotten the 300-yard DK bonus in all six games this season with multiple touchdowns in five of those six. Ryan is in play for cash and is a fantastic tournament play.

The Rams have been better against the run than the pass and Devonta Freeman ($5,400) is in play in tournaments as a Ryan stack. I suppose he could have standalone appeal, but all three of his scores this season have been receiving, and he hasn’t had a 100-yard rushing bonus. The Rams shakeup at cornerback this week is one that leaves us projecting a good deal. Marcus Peters was traded away, Aqib Talib was placed on IR and Jalen Ramsey was acquired via trade.

Wide Receivers Against LAR: Last 5 Regular Season Games
Year Week Team VS. PPR PPR Rk EP EP Rk FPOE FPOE Rk
2019 2 NO LAR 27.1 24 25.8 27 1.3 16
2019 3 CLE LAR 26.4 27 45 6 -18.6 32
2019 4 TB LAR 64.8 2 46.7 3 18.1 2
2019 5 SEA LAR 40.3 9 22.9 21 17.4 5
2019 6 SF LAR 18 25 29.1 20 -11.1 24
Average 35.3 14 33.9 10 1.4 17

As you can see, wide receivers had their way against the Rams when playing a team that forced the issue with wide receivers, as Atlanta is happy to do. The availability of Ramsey will have some ramifications for Julio Jones ($8,000). Jones is a tournament play no matter what, but he is not a high-end one at his price if Ramsey plays. Calvin Ridley ($5,300) is a sound boom or bust tournament play, and he would get a boost if Ramsey were to play. Rams slot corner Nickell Robey-Coleman has not been as invincible as he was in 2018 and slot receiver Mohamed Sanu ($4,600) is favorably priced and could get lots of one-on-one opportunities, particularly if Ramsey plays.

Perhaps no tight end has more actual production and value over their perceived role and value than Austin Hooper ($5,300). The Rams haven’t been a true sieve to the TE position this year, but they have allowed either 80 yards or a touchdown to an individual player in each of their last four. Hooper has cash viability and is the most favorable Ryan stack.

Cardinals at Giants

On the Cardinals side, Kyler Murray ($6,700) has a very favorable matchup, he just remains a difficult quarterback to stack. Only the running backs and Larry Fitzgerald ($6,100) have enough volume to find any level of attractiveness until Christian Kirk returns. The stacking options are limited, but Fitzgerald is a perfectly sound stack this week in a sweet individual matchup.

The Giants’ side of the ball is the more fun for DFS purposes in this one. Saquon Barkley ($8,900) should return this week and despite his price tag, is cash viable and is a strong tournament play as he will not be popular. Evan Engram ($6,500) is still not priced quite appropriately, particularly in this god matchup with Arizona, the best for tight ends. His pricing is high enough that he becomes dicey for cash given the other strong options that offers some savings, but low enough to love him for tournaments and he is likely the top gross point scorer at the position. Golden Tate ($5,800) saw heavy volume without Engram last week, and will still have a sound role, but with him only playing two games, one without Engram, we don’t know the exact nature of the role and is just a middling tournament play. All the above reverse engineers Daniel Jones ($6,100) to tournament viability, and he can be stacked up with the skill position players.

Quarterback and Team Stacks

Lamar Jackson ($6,800) has an unattractive price, but he is in a spot that has two things working strongly in his favor. The first is both of the athletic quarterbacks Seattle has faced this year have gotten a rushing touchdown. The second is that his top pass catcher has a very sweet matchup.

Tight Ends Against SEA: Last 5 Regular Season Games
Year Week Team VS. PPR PPR Rk EP EP Rk FPOE FPOE Rk
2019 2 PIT SEA 22.8 4 14.8 7 8 4
2019 3 NO SEA 3.1 28 5.5 25 -2.4 26
2019 4 ARI SEA 4.4 25 4.5 24 -0.1 20
2019 5 LAR SEA 28.3 1 20.8 2 7.5 2
2019 6 CLE SEA 17.6 9 11.7 15 5.9 4
Average 15.2 6 11.5 11 3.8 2

Teams that use the tight end as a pass-catcher have had their way against the Seahawks, and Mark Andrews ($4,900) is in an absolute smash spot. The viability for the Ravens basically lies in just Jackson and Andrews, with Mark Ingram ($6,600) and his potential for taking the touchdowns being in play for tournaments, but not in lineups with Jackson and Andrews.

In the same game, Russell Wilson ($6,600) is, simply put, in play weekly for tournaments despite his volume being not enough to support mere mortal men. The Ravens have seen the slot be a problem and Tyler Lockett ($6,600) is a little pricey, but cash viable and favorable for tournaments. He is the lone stack to look at this week and has standalone value. The only other Seahawk in play is Chris Carson ($6,500) whose role makes him a solid cash and tournament play.

Josh Allen ($6,500) gets a matchup with the Dolphins, which means the quarterback is always in play for tournaments. The only viable stack with him is John Brown ($5,500), and there’s not really a viable game stack piece unless you’re willing to hold your nose and punt with Devante Parker ($3,800). Brown has standalone value. Perhaps the better way to attack using the Bills is with the DST ($4,300) and Devin Singletary ($5,400). If he can secure an early touchdown or two, the ceiling gets big late protecting a lead.

There are two cheaper quarterbacks with cash viability to make your lineups fit this week. The first is Gardner Minshew ($5,400) in a sound matchup with the Bengals. The obvious stack with him is D.J. Chark ($6,000) and both are in nice spots for a bounceback game after last week. The other is completely a salary saver in Ryan Tannehill ($4,800). There isn’t an identifiable stack with Tannehill and his use would be naked and to make a lineup fit.

Running Back

Dalvin Cook ($8,000) is wrecking the league so far this year and gets a matchup with Detroit, who has allowed 71.1 PPR points to running backs over their last two games. They have been consistent with allowing nice lines to running backs:

Tight Ends Against SEA: Last 5 Regular Season Games
Year Week Team VS. PPR PPR Rk EP EP Rk FPOE FPOE Rk
2019 2 PIT SEA 22.8 4 14.8 7 8 4
2019 3 NO SEA 3.1 28 5.5 25 -2.4 26
2019 4 ARI SEA 4.4 25 4.5 24 -0.1 20
2019 5 LAR SEA 28.3 1 20.8 2 7.5 2
2019 6 CLE SEA 17.6 9 11.7 15 5.9 4
Average 15.2 6 11.5 11 3.8 2

The Vikings will be more than happy to run the ball, particularly when it’s the path of least resistance, and Cook has just massive floor and ceiling. He’s a cash lock and will be my most owned running back.

Leonard Fournette ($7,000) is not far behind Cook and brings a more favorable price. Cincinnati is vulnerable to being rolled over if teams feed the running back position against them and have even allowed two games where backs went over 50 PPR points.

Running Backs Against CIN: Last 5 Regular Season Games
Year Week Team VS. PPR PPR Rk EP EP Rk FPOE FPOE Rk
2019 2 SF CIN 55.8 1 35.6 1 20.2 1
2019 3 BUF CIN 23.8 13 20.6 19 3.2 9
2019 4 PIT CIN 50.45 2 38.6 1 11.9 4
2019 5 ARI CIN 36.2 7 24.9 13 11.3 6
2019 6 BAL CIN 23.5 15 25.6 12 -2.1 15
Average 38 1 29.1 2 8.9 1

Even if Fournette isn’t just pounded as a runner, he has a consistent receiving role and is in a fully smash spot. Unlike Cook, he is favorably stacked with the DST ($3,500). The tournament game stack to be had with this one is Tyler Boyd ($5,600). The last running back to be sure to have significant ownership of is Josh Jacobs ($5,000), who brings a truly value salary into a favorable matchup. The Raiders will commit to feeding him and he brings cash viability and tournament ceiling.

If Alvin Kamara is out, Latavius Murray (5100) will be fairly popular, but I am not a fan of the play. I don’t believe he gets the receiving workload of Kamara and that there are better plays for cash.

Wide Receiver

There’s a very obvious strong wide receiver play in all formats, and he is T.Y. Hilton ($5,900). He has had sustained success against Houston’s scheme, dating back to 2014 and is inappropriately priced. He will be wildly popular, for good reason, but is a cash lack and heavy tournament use.

Most other wide receiver plays have been covered in stacks, but I want to touch on some value spots to consider as salary savers.

Mike Williams ($4,600) is all but forgotten in the wake of Henry’s big game, but he has seen 23 targets over the last two games and could be in line for an explosion if that volume remains.

We need to monitor which Packer receivers are playing. If they are without all of their top three, which is possible, min priced Allen Lazard would have cash and tournament viability. In this scenario Jake Kumerow ($3,600) would be the ultimate leverage play in tournaments as Lazard garners popularity.

Keke Coutee ($3,600) has seen his target count rise each week and brings some level of floor and the potential for an explosion as we’ve seen in the past.

Tight End

With Engram, Hooper and Andrews already covered, there are three more high end plays at the position, and this is a week where I have no reservations in flexing a tight end in tournaments.

Hunter Henry ($4,000) has a role that is vastly more valuable than his price tag. This salary will make him the most popular tight end of the week, and he brings very real cash viability, but I won’t go in this direction when I can get what I perceive as much better spots while also getting more favorable ownership. He is the farthest thing from a fade and you should play him in tournaments, but Andrews, Engram and Hooper are better plays.

Darren Waller ($4,700) remains an every week tournament option, which is an exclusive club. He won’t carry the ownership of the above group because of the tough matchup, but we can create a narrative that he will celebrate his new contract with his teammates in the end zone. I also believe there’s a realistic chance he is matchup proof in his role.

George Kittle ($6,700) has a middle of the road matchup and an unfavorable price but brings a real ceiling in every game and is very much a tournament play.

Image Credit: Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Evan Engram.

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