Utilizing RotoViz’s suite of creative tools, metrics, and filterable stats (all of which just keep getting better!), I unearthed 14 key stats to help you crush your Week 11 NFL DFS lineups.
Vegas lines for Week 11
Reported lines are current as of November 14, 2019.1
|Date & Time||Favorite||Line||Underdog||Total|
|11/14 8:20 ET||At Cleveland||-2.5||Pittsburgh||40|
|11/17 1:00 ET||Dallas||-4.5||At Detroit||49|
|11/17 1:00 ET||New Orleans||-5.5||At Tampa Bay||50.5|
|11/17 1:00 ET||At Carolina||-6||Atlanta||50.5|
|11/17 1:00 ET||At Indianapolis||-3||Jacksonville||44|
|11/17 1:00 ET||At Minnesota||-10.5||Denver||39.5|
|11/17 1:00 ET||At Washington||-1||NY Jets||38.5|
|11/17 1:00 ET||Buffalo||-5.5||At Miami||40|
|11/17 1:00 ET||At Baltimore||-4||Houston||50|
|11/17 4:05 ET||At San Francisco||-11.5||Arizona||46|
|11/17 4:25 ET||New England||-3.5||At Philadelphia||44.5|
|11/17 4:25 ET||At Oakland||-10.5||Cincinnati||48.5|
|11/17 8:20 ET||At LA Rams||-6.5||Chicago||41.5|
|11/18 8:15 ET||Kansas City||-3.5||LA Chargers||52.5|
PIT @ CLE: The Browns are bottom-10 against QBs
IMPLIED: CLE 21.25, PIT 18.75 — TOTAL: 40
Is Mason Rudolph a sneaky play? Per our NFL Stat Explorer, The Browns have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing QBs over the last five games, including a top-16 performance to Denver’s Brandon Allen (193 yards, two TDs) in his first career start.
DAL @ DET: An Ezekiel Elliott bounceback game is in store
IMPLIED: DAL 26.75, DET 22.25 — TOTAL: 49
Here’s how RBs have fared against the Lions in their last five contests in terms of PPR rank: 5, 2, 7, 3, 15. Elliott is due for a huge game after failing to top 14 PPR points in two straight.
NO @ TB: This matchup is almost twice as good as any Michael Thomas will see all year
IMPLIED: NO 28, TB 22.5 — TOTAL: 50.5
The Buccaneers are bad against WRs. This is well established. How bad? Per our Strength of Schedule app, Thomas has a +7.8 matchup advantage — more than twice as good as any other matchup of his all season, apart from the also-terrible Falcons pass D (+4.6).
ATL @ CAR: The Falcons are a bottom-5 team against WRs
IMPLIED: CAR 28.25, ATL 22.25 — TOTAL: 50.5
Carolina’s D.J. Moore should feast for Week 11 DFS players against Atlanta, who has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points and eighth-most expected points to WRs over the last five weeks. Moore has seen eight-plus targets in five straight games, and 10-plus in two straight.
JAX @ IND: Leonard Fournette: 174 rushing attempts, but only 4 from inside the 5
IMPLIED: IND 23.5, JAX 20.5 — TOTAL: 44
For comparison, Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey, David Montgomery, Aaron Jones, Mark Ingram, and Sony Michel all have 12 attempts from inside the 5-yard line — three times as many as Fournette. Via the RotoViz Screener:
DEN @ MIN: The Vikings have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to opposing WRs
IMPLIED: MIN 25, DEN 14.5 — TOTAL: 39.5
Over their last five games, the Vikings have been crushed by enemy WRs, allowed the second-most fantasy points, 4th-most expected points, and sixth-most FPOE2 to the position. Tee up Courtland Sutton in Week 11 DFS with confidence.
NYJ @ WAS: The Jets have allowed 10 TDs to opposing WRs in their last 3 games
IMPLIED: WAS 19.75, NYJ 18.75 — TOTAL: 38.5
Terry McLaurin will find room to roam against the Swiss-cheese Jets secondary, which has allowed 10 WR touchdowns over their last three contests. They have allowed the third-most fantasy points, fifth-most expected points, and fourth-most FPOE to the position over their last five games.
BUF @ MIA: DeVante Parker handled a 30% team target marketshare without Preston Williams
IMPLIED: BUF 22.75, MIA 17.25 — TOTAL: 40
From Weeks 1-9, with both Parker and Williams healthy, Parker handled 19% of the team’s targets (vs. 21% for Williams). In Week 10, with Williams sidelined for the rest of the season, Parker leaped to 30% team target market share.
HOU @ BAL: The Texans have allowed 3-plus passing TDs in 4 of their last 5 games
IMPLIED: BAL 27, HOU 23 — TOTAL: 50
The answer is yes, you are allowed to keep playing Lamar Jackson. Over their last five games, the Texans have allowed opposing QBs to average 304.6 yards and 2.6 passing TDs per game, while averaging 26.55 fantasy PPG. In that span, they have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points and fourth-most FPOE to the position.
ARZ @ SF: The Cardinals have allowed the 7th-most points to opposing RBs
IMPLIED: SF 28.75, ARZ 17.25 — TOTAL: 46
Over their last 5 games, Arizona has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points, 14th-most expected points, and sixth-most FPOE to opposing RBs. Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida continue to have near-equal work splits (17% team opportunities for Breida, 18% for Coleman). One or both of them should have a strong game in Week 11 DFS.
NE @ PHI: Mohamed Sanu is 2nd in targets since joining the Patriots
IMPLIED: NE 24, PHI 20.5 — TOTAL: 44.5
Since joining the Pats in Week 8, Sanu has tallied 19 targets in two games, trailing only Julian Edelman (22 targets) in New England’s pecking order. Sanu holds a strong 26% team target market share in New England since joining the squad — all while playing just 76% of the snaps, a number that figures to rise starting in Week 11.
CIN @ OAK: The Bengals rank bottom-10 in all categories against RBs
IMPLIED: OAK 29.5, CIN 19 — TOTAL: 48.5
Cincinnati has allowed the 10th-most rush attempts, eighth-most rushing yards, and seventh-most YPC over their last five weeks to opposing RBs. And, truth be told, teams haven’t even run that much against them (Todd Gurley had 10 attempts and Mark Ingram had nine over the last two weeks). Josh Jacobs can be played in Week 11 DFS with confidence.
CHI @ LAR: The Bears have allowed the 2nd-most expected points to RBs
IMPLIED: LAR 24, CHI 17.5 — TOTAL: 41.5
Todd Gurley is impossible to trust, but this could be a week to get him at incredibly low ownership in a better-than-it-looks spot. The Rams are 6.5-point home favorites, and the Bears have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points, second-most expected points, and 15th-most FPOE to opposing RBs over their last five contests.
KC @ LAC: The Chiefs have allowed the 8th-most targets to TEs over
IMPLIED: KC 28, LAC 24.5 — TOTAL: 52.5
Over their last five games, Kansas City has allowed the eighth-most targets and receptions to enemy TEs, with an average of 8.4 targets and 5.6 receptions per game allowed. Tight ends have also found the end zone against the Chiefs in two straight games. Hunter Henry, meanwhile, is controlling a 24% team target market share in Los Angeles since returning in Week 6, just behind Keenan Allen (25%) for the team lead.