Utilizing RotoViz’s suite of creative tools, metrics, and filterable stats (all of which just keep getting better!), I unearthed 14 key stats to help you crush your Week 12 NFL DFS lineups.
Vegas lines for Week 12
Reported lines are current as of November 21, 2019.1
|Date & Time||Favorite||Line||Underdog||Total|
|11/21 8:20 ET||At Houston||-4||Indianapolis||45.5|
|11/24 1:00 ET||At Cleveland||-10.5||Miami||44|
|11/24 1:00 ET||At Buffalo||-4||Denver||37|
|11/24 1:00 ET||Pittsburgh||-6.5||At Cincinnati||39|
|11/24 1:00 ET||At Chicago||-6||NY Giants||40.5|
|11/24 1:00 ET||Oakland||-3||At NY Jets||46.5|
|11/24 1:00 ET||At New Orleans||-9.5||Carolina||47|
|11/24 1:00 ET||At Atlanta||-4.5||Tampa Bay||51.5|
|11/24 1:00 ET||Detroit||-3.5||At Washington||42|
|11/24 4:05 ET||At Tennessee||-3||Jacksonville||41.5|
|11/24 4:25 ET||At New England||-6.5||Dallas||46|
|11/24 8:20 ET||At San Francisco||-3||Green Bay||46.5|
|11/24 1:00 ET||At Philadelphia||-1.5||Seattle||48|
|11/24 8:15 ET||Baltimore||-3||At LA Rams||46.5|
IND @ HOU: Jonathan Williams handled 13 rush attempts last week
IMPLIED: HOU 24.75, IND 20.75 — TOTAL: 45.5
With Marlon Mack sidelined, Williams is in line to be the lead back for Indy with Nyheim Hines retaining his passing-downs work. Williams gained an impressive 116 yards on those 13 attempts last week and is a decent flier against a Texans D that has allowed the third-most fantasy points over expectations (FPOE), to opposing RBs over their last five games, per the NFL Stat Explorer.
MIA @ CLE: Kareem Hunt is handling 21% of Cleveland’s opportunities
IMPLIED: CLE 27.25, MIA 16.75 — TOTAL: 44
According to our Weekly Stats tool, Since returning in Week 10, Hunt has handled 21% of Cleveland’s offensive opportunities, trailing only Nick Chubb. Yes, he has more opportunities that Odell Beckham Jr. since returning. Hunt’s usage in the passing game makes him a viable punt.
DEN @ BUF: Noah Fant is 2nd in targets since Brandon Allen took over at QB
IMPLIED: BUF 20.5, DEN 16.5 — TOTAL: 37
Fant has tallied 15 targets over this last two games (since Allen took over as QB), trailing only Courtland Sutton (17) in Denver. Fant has a 27% team target market share in this span, versus 13% with Joe Flacco at QB. Fant is also running 86% of the snaps over the last two games, compared to 71% from Weeks 1-18. He’s an interesting Week 12 DFS target.
PIT @ CIN: Joe Mixon’s hot streak runs into Pittsburgh’s top-ranked run D
IMPLIED: PIT 22.75, CIN 16.25 — TOTAL: 39
Mixon is coming off two straight solid games, dropping 114 yards in Week 10 before adding 86 and a touchdown in Week 11. He was a top-10 PPR running back both weeks. However, in Week 12, he faces a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs over their last five games.
NYG @ CHI: Saquon Barkley has -10.9 FPOE since returning from injury
IMPLIED: CHI 23.25, NYG 17.25 — TOTAL: 40.5
Since rejoining the fold in Week 7, Barkley has managed 165 rushing yards and no TDs on 64 attempts (2.6 YPC). This is a potential get-right spot against the Bears, who have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points and ninth-most FPOE to running backs over their last five contests. He’s a solid contrarian play in Week 12 DFS.
OAK @ NYJ: Jamison Crowder has a TD in 3 straight games
IMPLIED: OAK 24.75, NYJ 21.75 — TOTAL: 46.5
In this span, he leads the Jets in targets (23), receptions (18), yards (240), and TDs (3). He has finished as a top-14 PPR wideout in each game, and the Raiders rank bottom-10 in FPOE allowed to wideouts over their last five contests.
CAR @ NO: The Panthers have allowed the most expected points to WRs
IMPLIED: NO 28.25, CAR 18.75 — TOTAL: 47
Michael Thomas is going to absolutely destroy the Panthers secondary, which has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points and most expected points (EP) to opposing WRs over their last five games. He should be a DFS staple again in Week 12.
SEA @ PHI: Dallas Goedert has more red zone receptions and TDs than Zach Ertz
IMPLIED: PHI 24.75, SEA 23.25 — TOTAL: 48
Per the RotoViz Screener, Goedert paces Ertz in receptions (4) and TDs (3) on targets inside the red zone this season, though Ertz does have the upper hand in targets (9 to 6). Both TEs are intriguing Week 12 DFS options against the Seahawks, who have allowed the eighth-most expected points to opposing TEs over their last five games.
TB @ ATL: Tampa has allowed the most points and most FPOE to opposing WRs
IMPLIED: ATL 28, TB 23.5 — TOTAL: 51.5
Welcome to Julio Jones week. The Bucs struggles against WRs are well-documented, and the team has allowed the most points and most FPOE to opposing WRs over the last month. Some of the league’s top WRs have feasted on Tampa in recent weeks, including Tyler Lockett 18-13-152-3, Christian Kirk (10-6-138-3), and Michael Thomas (11-8-114-1).
DET @ WAS: Derrius Guice handled 17% of Washington’s opportunities last week
IMPLIED: DET 22.75, WAS 19.25 — TOTAL: 42
In his Week 11 return, Guice took 20 snaps and touched the ball nine times, good for a 17% team offensive opportunity share, second behind Adrian Peterson‘s 21% mark. The Lions have allowed the third-most fantasy points and second-most FPOE to opposing RBs over their last five. Here’s what I wrote about Guice in my Week 12 Waiver Wire Advice piece.
Guice returned from short-term IR in Week 11 and handled seven rush attempts versus nine for Adrian Peterson. However, Guice added a 45-yard touchdown reception, something that Peterson is unlikely to ever do again. It will be interesting to see the Guice-Peterson split in a game in which Washington isn’t getting blown out (if that ever happens). But it’s clear that Guice will have a key role in the offense either way.
JAX @ TEN: The Titans rank bottom-10 against RBs over their last 5 games
IMPLIED: TEN 22.25, JAX 19.25 — TOTAL: 41.5
Since Week 6, the Titans rank eighth-worst against RBs in terms of fantasy scoring and sixth-worst in terms of expected points. Is this the week Leonard Fournette finally breaks out?
And yes, I’m hoping it happens:
The + regression will come, but there’s only 16 games in an NFL season and I’ve wasted approximately all of them on uncle Len— Tyler Loechner (@LoechnerNFL) November 17, 2019
DAL @ NE: 2 of the last 3 RBs to face New England have topped 100 yards
IMPLIED: NE 26.25, DAL 19.75 — TOTAL: 46
This makes Ezekiel Elliott a somewhat interesting contrarian play, though certainly not a guaranteed one (the Pats have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to topping RBs over their last five games, and only one RB has scored a touchdown against them all year.)
GB @ SF: The Packers have allowed the most points to opposing TEs
IMPLIED: SF 24.75, GB 21.75 — TOTAL: 46.5
Over their last five contests, Green Bay has allowed enemy TEs to rack up the most fantasy points and most expected points against them. Tee up George Kittle (if healthy) or Ross Dwelley (if Kittle’s out) with confidence.
BAL @ LAR: The Ravens have allowed the 2nd-most targets to opposing WRs
IMPLIED: BAL 24.75, LAR 21.75 — TOTAL: 46.5
Over their last five games, the Ravens have allowed the second-most targets to WRs, due to the fact opposing teams have to play fast to keep up with Lamar Jackson‘s insane scoring pace. This is good news for Cooper Kupp, who, after two down weeks, is due for a big hit against a Baltimore D that has been friendly to opposing slots in recent weeks.
Image Credit: Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Saquon Barkley.
- Provided by footballlocks.com. (back)