Utilizing RotoViz’s suite of creative tools, metrics, and filterable stats (all of which just keep getting better!), I unearthed 16 key stats to help you crush your Week 13 NFL DFS lineups.
Vegas lines for Week 13
Reported lines are current as of November 27, 2019.1
|Date & Time||Favorite||Line||Underdog||Total|
|11/28 12:30 ET||Chicago||-4.5||At Detroit||37|
|11/28 4:30 ET||At Dallas||-6.5||Buffalo||47|
|11/28 8:20 ET||New Orleans||-7||At Atlanta||48.5|
|12/1 1:00 ET||Green Bay||-6.5||At NY Giants||45|
|12/1 1:00 ET||At Carolina||-10||Washington||40|
|12/1 1:00 ET||At Baltimore||-6||San Francisco||46|
|12/1 1:00 ET||At Indianapolis||-2.5||Tennessee||43.5|
|12/1 1:00 ET||Philadelphia||-10||At Miami||45|
|12/1 4:25 ET||At Kansas City||-10||Oakland||51|
|12/1 1:00 ET||Tampa Bay||-1||At Jacksonville||47|
|12/1 1:00 ET||NY Jets||-3||At Cincinnati||41|
|12/1 4:05 ET||LA Rams||-3||At Arizona||47.5|
|12/1 4:25 ET||LA Chargers||-3||At Denver||38.5|
|12/1 4:25 ET||Cleveland||-2||At Pittsburgh||39|
|12/1 8:20 ET||New England||-3||At Houston||45|
|12/2 8:15 ET||At Seattle||-3||Minnesota||49.5|
CHI @ DET: David Montgomery has -13.6 FPOE2 over his last 3 games
IMPLIED: CHI 20.75, DET 16.25 — TOTAL: 37
Montgomery has been terrible in this span, with 44 rush attempts but just 113 yards (2.6 YPC) and three receptions. Week 13 is a do-or-die spot for the rookie against a Lions D that is soft against the run, allowing the fifth-most FPOE and seventh-most fantasy points to RBs over their last five contests, per the NFL Stat Explorer.
BUF @ DAL: Amari Cooper scores 20 more PPG at home
IMPLIED: DAL 26.75, BUF 20.25 — TOTAL: 47
Cooper at home this season: 29.7 DraftKings points per game. On the road: 8.4 PPG. He’s at home this week, but has a brutal matchup with shadow coverage from Tre’Davious White. Cooper is in consideration for GPPs, but he’s not a safe cash play.
NO @ ATL: The Falcons rank bottom 10 in most major categories against WRs
IMPLIED: NO 27.75, ATL 20.75 — TOTAL: 48.5
Over their last five games, here are the categories in which the Falcons rank bottom 10 against WRs: Receptions, receiving yards, yards per reception, yards after the catch, and RACR.3 Hit the lock button on Michael Thomas and figure out the rest after.
GB @ NYG: Daniel Jones has 11 TDs in his last 4 games
IMPLIED: GB 25.75, NYG 19.25 — TOTAL: 45
Jones has been slinging it for a month, with two games of 300-plus yards and 4 TDs in his last four contests. He was mediocre in the other games (210-1 and 150-2 through the air), but somewhat made up for it with at least 25 rushing yards in both of those games (and 54 rushing yards in one of them). Is it possible Jones is getting more reliable from a fantasy perspective? If so, he could be in line for a spike Week 13 against the Packers, who rank last in QB Rating allowed, third in passing yards allowed, and third in completion rate against.
WAS @ CAR: Washington ranks third-worst in rushing yards allowed
IMPLIED: CAR 25, WAS 15 — TOTAL: 40
Christian McCaffrey is not 80% owned every week. Since he should be, I feel obligated to tell you to play him every week. Especially against Washington, who ranks last in rush attempts against and third worst in rushing yards allowed to RBs over their last five contests.
SF @ BAL: Lamar Jackson has been a QB1 91% of the time this season
IMPLIED: BAL 26, SF 20 — TOTAL: 46
Repeat after me: It does not matter who Jackson plays. It does not matter who Jackson plays. It does no matter who Jackson plays. Now put him in your Week 13 DFS lineup.
TEN @ IND: Jonathan Williams handled 46% of the Colts opportunities last week
IMPLIED: IND 23, TEN 20.5 — TOTAL: 43.5
With Marlon Mack on the shelf in Week 12 — and set to miss again in Week 13 — Williams handled a whopping 46% of Indianapolis’ offensive opportunities.4 Per our Weekly Stats tool, Williams had 29 opportunities on just 45 snaps, which is absurd usage.
PHI @ MIA: Zach Ertz had a 31% team target market share last week
IMPLIED: PHI 27.5, MIA 17.5 — TOTAL: 45
With Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor out, the already-funneled Philly offense started to revolve even more around Ertz. He saw 14 targets, good for a 31% team target market share. Next-best on the team was Dallas Goedert (18%), which again shows how willing Carson Wentz is to throw to his TEs. Jeffery is expected back in Week 13, but Ertz has re-established himself as a premiere fantasy TE — especially in a prime matchup against the Dolphins.
OAK @ KC: Patrick Mahomes has been a QB1 in all but one healthy game
IMPLIED: KC 30.5, OAK 20.5 — TOTAL: 51
All eyes are on Lamar Jackson‘s ridiculous season such that people are forgetting Mahomes has also been incredible. In his healthy games, Mahomes has finished as a fantasy QB1 all but once (Week 11 against the Chargers). This week he draws an Oakland defense that ranks bottom 10 in fantasy points and expected points allowed to QBs over their last five contests. Mahomes may potentially be lower owned in Week 13 DFS than he should be.
TB @ JAX: Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have both finished as a WR1 just twice this season
IMPLIED: TB 24, JAX 23 — TOTAL: 47
It happened in Week 4 (Godwin 14-12-172-2; Evans 7-4-89-1) and in Week 6 (Godwin 12-10-151-0; Evans 9-96-0). But while both players have gone slate-breaking bananas multiple times this season — Evans has 36-plus points three times; Godwin has 30-plus three times — they don’t ever do it on the same week. It is worth noting, however, that Evans is riding a three-game streak of finishing as WR3 or worse after finishing as a WR1 in five of his previous six games.
NYJ @ CIN: Sam Darnold has been a top-10 fantasy QB in three straight weeks
IMPLIED: NYJ 22, CIN 19 — TOTAL: 41
Darnold’s fantasy finishes over his last three games: QB7, QB6, QB3. This week, he gets a Bengals D that ranks fifth-worst in fantasy points allowed and FPOE to enemy QBs. Darnold is a legit Week 13 DFS option.
LAR @ ARZ: Jared Goff has scored positive FPOE just twice this season
IMPLIED: LAR 25.25, ARZ 22.25 — TOTAL: 47.5
Goff scored +4.8 fantasy points over expectation in Week 2, and he went +12.8 in Week 8. In his other nine games, he scored fewer fantasy points than expectation, bottoming out at -10.9 in Week 12. It’s a great matchup against the Cardinals if you want to be super contrarian, but hold onto your hats.
LAC @ DEN: Phillip Lindsay handles over 30% of Denver’s offensive opportunity … and growing
IMPLIED: LAC 20.75, DEN 17.75 — TOTAL: 38.5
On the year, Lindsay has handled 30% of Denver’s offensive opportunity, versus 23% for Royce Freeman. Over their last two games, however, Lindsay has managed 31% of the opportunity, versus just 12% for Freeman. Freeman hit a new low in Week 12 with just four touches.
CLE @ PIT: Benny Snell led Pittsburgh with a 37% opportunity mark
IMPLIED: CLE 20.5, PIT 18.5 — TOTAL: 39
Filling in for an injured James Conner and a deranked Jaylen Samuels, Snell made the most of his 36 snaps (49% rate) last week, touching the ball over 20 times en route to a 37% team opportunity market share.
NE @ HOU: James White has just 3 targets in 2 of his last 3 games
IMPLIED: NE 24, HOU 21 — TOTAL: 45
White has a season-low of three targets this year, a mark that has happened twice in his last three games (Week 9 against Baltimore, Week 12 against Dallas). He’s either being phased out of New England’s offense slowly, or he just had a few bad weeks. He gets a premiere bounceback opportunity in Week 13 against the Texans, who have allowed the sixth-most receptions and fifth-most receiving yards to opponent RBs over the last five games.
MIN @ SEA: The Seahawks rank bottom-six in all major WR categories
IMPLIED: SEA 26.25, MIN 23.25 — TOTAL: 49.5
Seattle has given up the second-most targets, fourth-most receptions, and sixth-most receiving yards to opposing WRs over their last five games. In this span, WRs rank 10th in PPR points per game when playing Seattle and fourth in expected points per game. With Adam Thielen still sidelined at practice as of Wednesday, this could be another big game for Stefon Diggs.