Who are the best plays for the Week 10 DFS primetime slate on DraftKings and FanDuel? Tyler Loechner runs through notes on the primetime short slate featuring SNF/MNF games.1
DSF Week 10 Primetime Slate
|Home||Away||Spread||Favorite Implied||Underdog Implied||Vegas Total|
|Dallas Cowboys||Minnesota Vikings||DAL -3||25.5||22.5||48|
|San Francisco 49ers||Seattle Seahawks||SF -6.5||26.75||20.25||47|
DFS Week 10 Primetime Slate theory thoughts:
- The games on this slate might not have “shootout” written all over them, but it’s really hard to build a lineup because the field is stacked with good options. There are multiple viable QBs, RBs, and WRs to choose from. If building just one roster, you’ll be forced to leave several good players on the sideline. Choose carefully.
- There is no glaringly obvious way to attack this slate, which means ownership will be more evenly distributed for a short slate than it typically is. Why this matters: It will be easier to build unique lineups in larger fields, which is typically next to impossible on short slates.
Chalk: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are 3-point home favorites in the game with the higher Vegas total. A date with the Vikings defense is certainly not the easiest, but no QB on this short slate has a pristine matchup. Plus, each of the last two above-average QBs the Vikings have faced gone for over 300 yards and two TDs.
Contrarian: Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers
Jimmy G’s home-favorite 49ers have the highest implied team total on the slate, but I’m willing to bet he’ll be the lowest-owned QB. Garoppolo has been bad for fantasy this year, checking in below 15 points in six of eight games, but he also faces a Seahawks defense that has been drilled by QBs over their last five contests, allowing the most Expected Points (EP) to the position in that span.
Chalk: Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
The RB options on this short slate are incredible, with Cook and Ezekiel Elliott, and, to a lesser extent, Chris Carson. The chalk nod goes to Cook, as the Cowboys rank in the bottom half of the league in terms of fantasy points ceded to opposing RBs over the last five weeks, while the other elite RB options have much tougher matchups.
Contrarian: Matt Breida, San Francisco 49ers
I’m actually not convinced Breida will draw extremely low ownership, but I do think he will be under-owned for a player so cheap but still so heavily utilized. Finally healthy again in Week 9, Breida handled 25% of San Francisco’s offensive opportunities — most among all of their RBs. And the larger opportunity workload came despite the fact Breida was out-snapped by Tevin Coleman 29 to 41. Heading in to Week 10, Breida isn’t even on the injury report. It’s impossible to ignore his price-to-volume ratio.
Chalk: Emmanuel Sanders, San Francisco 49ers
Tyler Lockett and Amari Cooper might draw higher ownership, but I’ll prioritize the similarly-priced Sanders, who has scored in each of his first two games with the 49ers and is fresh off a 9-7-112-1 pop-off game in Week 9. This week, he draws a Seattle secondary that has allowed the most EP to wideouts over the last five weeks, and the seventh-most actual fantasy points.
Contrarian: Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys
Gallup has a better-than-you-think matchup against the Minnesota secondary. In my 13 Stats to Know for DFS in Week 10 piece, I highlight the plus matchup for Dallas wideouts:
Over their last five games, the Vikings rank fifth-worst in EP given up to WRs and 10th-worst in actual points given up. And it wasn’t just Marvin Jones’ big four-TD game that did them in; they rank bottom-12 in EP ceded to WRs in four of their last five games.
Contrarian: Laquon Treadwell, Minnesota Vikings
If you can stomach putting any amount of money on Treadwell doing anything relevant, he’s probably the most interesting cheap WR to choose from. In 19 snaps last week, Treadwell saw five targets, hauling in three of them for 58 yards. That’s a solid amount of damage on limited snaps, and it all came after Adam Thielen was ruled out (Thielen won’t play in Week 10). Treadwell is one of the better punts on the slate.
Chalk: Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys
With George Kittle doubtful for his contest, Witten becomes the chalk by default. At the very least, he’ll score some points for your team: Witten has at least four targets and three receptions in every game this season, with at least 29 yards in all but one game. Not exactly a ringing endorsement, but here we are.
Contrarian: Jacob Hollister, Seattle Seahawks
I’m not sure yet if Hollister will be chalk or contrarian, but I think people at large will skip him because they’ve never heard of him. But Hollister does have six targets in two of his last three and at least least two receptions in three straight games. He did his best Will Dissly impersonation last week with four catches for 37 yards and two TDs.
Image Credit: Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Dalvin Cook.
- An important note: I’m writing this column with tournaments and GPPs top of mind. Cash game plays on short slates are usually easier to figure out because the options are so thin; tournaments require quite a bit of game theory, which can be half the fun. (back)