Not Catchable but Still a Catch: the 2026 Masked Profiles List

Jesse Cohen
August 5, 2026

Jesse Cohen takes a deep dive into the trends surrounding catchable target rate over/under expectation to uncover “masked profiles” — players who underperformed last year but may be poised for a breakout.

Masked Profiles Recap

In Not Catchable but Still a Catch? Finding “Masked Profiles” for 2025, we leveraged the Advanced Stats Explorer to identify a group of buy-low targets ripe for positive regression.

That cohort, which had an aggregate -176.1 FPOE in 2024, finished the 2025 fantasy season with an aggregate +91.5 FPOE — led by strong performances from George Pickens (+59.9 FPOE), Dalton Kincaid (+41.5 FPOE), Christian Watson (+36 FPOE), and Alec Pierce (+29 FPOE) — for a total swing of +267.6 FPOE or +12.2 FPOE per player. For context, that’s about the same positive FPOE that Tetairoa McMillan (+13.1 FPOE) and Davante Adams (+12.1 FPOE) had last year.

It wasn’t all roses; Adonai Mitchell (-23.6 FPOE), Xavier Worthy (-17.1 FPOE), and Calvin Ridley (-11.6 FPOE) each failed to match the hype. And a handful of undraftable players dragged down the overall cohort results like Jalen Tolbert (-7.0 FPOE), Elijah Moore (-5.0 FPOE), and Brandin Cooks (-4.4 FPOE). As noted last year:

The “Masked Profiles” list is not a “breakout score” or a “fantasy hack” — this is still buy-low bin shopping and your discretion is required — but maybe, a helpful nudge in refining mental buckets.

I was excited to jump back into this analysis.

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