Who are the best plays for the Week 11 DFS primetime slate on DraftKings and FanDuel? Tyler Loechner runs through notes on the primetime short slate featuring SNF/MNF games.1
DSF Week 11 Primetime Slate
|Home||Away||Spread||Favorite Implied||Underdog Implied||Vegas Total|
|Los Angeles Rams||Chicago Bears||LAR -6.5||23.5||17||40.5|
|Los Angeles Chargers||Kansas City Chiefs||KC -3.5||27.75||24.25||52|
DFS Week 11 Primetime Slate theory thoughts:
- The two games on this slate are dramatically different from an implied point total perspective. The Bears-Rams tilt has a paltry over/under of 40.5, while the Chargers-Chiefs game is expected to produce 52 points. Both teams in the Chargers-Chiefs game have a higher implied team total than either the Rams or Bears. Monday night stacks are going to be incredibly popular.
- The TE position is more interesting than usual. Do you pay up for Travis Kelce, the best TE in fantasy? Or do you take Hunter Henry, who has a better matchup? Or do you pay down for Gerald Everett in a bid to be contrarian?
Chalk: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
In Week 10, Mahomes returned from a two-and-a-half game absence to promptly drop 446 yards and three scores against the Titans. The Chargers have actually been strong against QBs — they’ve allowed just the 29th-most fantasy points to the position over their last five games — but Mahomes is still the chalk.
It’s possible the tough matchup, and the fact this game will be in Mexico City, will keep some people away from Mahomes, but I will not be one of them, especially with the Chiefs holding the highest implied total on the slate (by a lot). That and the fact that Mahomes makes hitting 30 fantasy points look so easy.
Contrarian: Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears
First of all, Trubisky’s ownership levels will be absurdly low on this slate. So if you’re looking for a high leverage play in a big tournament, he’s one of the natural choices. Over the last five weeks per the NFL Stat Explorer, the Rams have allowed the 10th-most expected points to opposing QBs. In three of his last five games, Trubisky has actually scored at least 19.5 fantasy points, which would be more than enough return on value for him on this short slate. (Yes, the other two games he scored fewer than 10 … but this is a contrarian play, remember?)
Chalk: Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers
Gordon appears to have truly returned to full form, churning out two straight games with at least 20 fantasy points on the back of strong volume (23 touches in both games). His Week 11 foe: a Chiefs defense that ranks dead least in fantasy points allowed to RBs over their last five games.
Contrarian: Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams
Gurley has a groovy Week 11 matchup against a Bears defense that has been overrated against the run recently. Chicago has allowed the second-most expected points and fifth-most fantasy points to enemy RBs over their last five contests. That includes monster ground-game performances by Josh Jacobs (26-123-2) and Latavius Murray (27-119-2). This is an underrated get-right spot for Gurley.
From my Week 11 DFS Stats to Know piece:
Todd Gurley is impossible to trust, but this could be a week to get him at incredibly low ownership in a better-than-it-looks spot. The Rams are 6.5-point home favorites, and the Bears have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points, second-most expected points, and 15th-most FPOE to opposing RBs over their last five contests.
Chalk: Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs
Hill hardly missed a beat with Mahomes out of the lineup in Weeks 8 and 9 (and part of Week 7), but he had his best game of the season in Week 10 with Mahomes back under center, popping off with an 11-157-1 line on a whopping 19 targets and an even more eye-popping 39% team target market share (per our Weekly Stats tool). Nearly 40%!
Contrarian: Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs
Yes, Hill is the better play. But also: Watkins is a good play, too. He was second in last week’s contest with an 18% team target market share, leading even Travis Kelce in looks (9). Watkins now has at least 8 targets in three straight contests, but he still hasn’t scored since his Week 1 outburst. He’s due soon and could be a major leverage play against someone like Hill in Week 11 DFS primetime contests.
Contrarian: Taylor Gabriel, Chicago Bears
Gabriel has quietly established himself as an every-week threat, but his DFS price still doesn’t reflect this fact. With 6 targets in two of his last three contests, and 3 catches for 69 yards in the other game, Gabriel rolls in to Week 11 with a three-game streak of at least 9 PPR points under his belt. That type of production is not slate-breaking (though Gabriel did break a primetime slate back in Week 3 with 3 TDs), but it’s enough to make Gabriel one of the best cheap punt options in the Week 11 primetime DFS slate. He has a good chance at a strong game in Week 11 against a Rams secondary that has allowed top-10 fantasy performances to opposing WR groups in three of their last five games.
Chalk: Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers
The choice on this slate comes down to Henry vs. Kelce, and for me, the matchup makes all the difference. Kelce faces a Chargers squad that ranks 32nd against TEs over their last 5 games — meaning the matchup really can’t get any tougher. On the flip side, Henry gets a Chiefs D that has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points and 11th-most expected points to TEs over their last 5, including the seventh-most fantasy points to enemy TEs in each over their last two games. From my Week 11 DFS Stats to Know piece:
Over their last five games, Kansas City has allowed the eighth-most targets and receptions to enemy TEs, with an average of 8.4 targets and 5.6 receptions per game allowed. Tight ends have also found the end zone against the Chiefs in two straight games. Hunter Henry, meanwhile, is controlling a 24% team target market share in Los Angeles since returning in Week 6, just behind Keenan Allen (25%) for the team lead.
Contrarian: Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Rams
Questionable but expected to play, Everett is a legitimately strong play at salary, but I think he’ll draw relatively low ownership for a two-game slate considering the elite options at the TE position up top (Kelce and Henry). With Brandin Cooks still out, Everett can serve as the team’s de facto No. 3 behind Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. Chicago has been roasted by TEs lately, too, ceding the fifth-most fantasy points, fourth-most expected points, and eighth-most FPOE2 to the position over their last five games.
Image Credit: Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes.
- An important note: I’m writing this column with tournaments and GPPs top of mind. Cash game plays on short slates are usually easier to figure out because the options are so thin; tournaments require quite a bit of game theory, which can be half the fun. (back)
- Fantasy points over expectation. (back)