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Yahoo! quarterback pricing continues to get sharper as the season marches on — in Week 11 there are 10 signal callers who will cost you at least 15% of the $200 salary cap. There are also four quarterbacks with salaries above $35 this week. It’s not going to scare us off of using any of the top guys, but from a roster-building perspective it does mean we’ll have to find some values at other positions.
I’ll start with this — Drew Brees ($36) is a quarterback several other analysts on this site (including George Fitopolous and TJ Calkins) are “on” this week and I fully understand their arguments. I also don’t love being on the opposite side of the fence on a player that two sharp guys like George and TJ are touting in any given week. However, priced at QB4, fresh off a huge flop at Atlanta, and owner of a dismal portfolio of road performances at Tampa Bay, there’s too much risk here for my liking given his price.
Brees is averaging a staggering 9.75 fewer fantasy points on the road against Tampa Bay than in all other matchups over the past three seasons. His stat lines in each of those games:
- 2018 – 201/1/1
- 2017 – 245/1/0
- 2016 – 257/0/3 (yikes)
Brees could come out and crush this week, but if that happens, it won’t be in any of my lineups. Now on to the quarterbacks I prefer at price on Yahoo! this week.
Deshaun Watson ($38) is cheaper than Lamar Jackson ($41) in the face-off of two of the games most exciting quarterbacks. Our GLSP have Watson as the QB1 at the 50th and 75th percentile outcomes this week, but he’s priced as QB3. Watson has been a QB1 in six out of nine games this season and has clearly demonstrated ceiling as evidenced by his five games of 30-plus fantasy points, including his staggering 46-point outburst against Atlanta.
Jimmy Garoppolo ($30) faces off against a Cardinals team he just roasted for a 317/4/0 line about five minutes ago.
Kyle Allen ($27) draws Atlanta and is priced at QB14. He hasn’t been a world-beater for fantasy purposes this year, but in the two smash spots he had (Arizona in week 1, Tampa Bay in week 6) he returned 29 and 19.7 fantasy points, respectively. Brees famously flopped against the Falcons last week, but he still had the most expected fantasy points of any quarterback in the league in that game (28.3). He just didn’t convert.
Kyler Murray ($25) is priced as the lowly QB18 but he’s been a high-end QB1 in four of his past six games, including 25.5 points against the staunch 49ers defense just a few weeks ago. He’s thrown five touchdowns over the past two weeks and also added 30-plus rushing yards in each of those contests. He’s now up to QB7 in expected fantasy points per game on the season and QB6 in fantasy overall.
Christian McCaffrey ($41) auto-post — I could say about anything here but every metric imaginable supports playing him not only this week, but any week. We played him here last week and he didn’t disappoint, posting 23.1 half-PPR against the Packers. I expect similar output this week.
Could it be Zeke week? Ezekiel Elliott ($34) faces off against the Jeff Driskel-led Lions in a game the Cowboys should win handily. The Lions surrendered at least 120 yards from scrimmage and one touchdown to recent bell-cow opponents Dalvin Cook, Saquon Barkley, and Josh Jacobs.
Elliott is averaging an extra six carries and almost 19 additional rushing yards per game as a road favorite in 2019.
Speaking of Josh Jacobs ($29), I love him this week against Cincinnati. The Bengals have allowed a rushing touchdown to opposing RB1s in three of the past four weeks and Jacobs has three of his own over the past two. I’ll keep touting Jacobs home/road splits too (until they fail me).
There are almost too many cheap backs that have some level of attractiveness to me this week.
Brian Hill ($14) should see the heaviest workload of his career this week. Falcons backs haven’t exactly been crushing it this year, but Carolina literally bleeds fantasy points to the position. Opposing running backs have scored 13 (thirteen!) touchdown against the Panthers over the past five weeks with an average line of 118.6/2.2 on the ground.
Ronald Jones ($14) saw at least 19 opportunities in each of the past two games and scored a touchdown each week, too. The Saints are a tough matchup, but his growing role represents a clear floor, and the price is right. Leonard Fournette (16.3) and Brian Hill (13.6) each managed respectable fantasy outputs against the Saints in the “death by 1000 paper cuts” fashion in recent weeks.
Kenyan Drake ($14) scorched the 49ers for 26.2 half PPR just two games ago and is reportedly pushing David Johnson for the starting role in Arizona. Despite their early-season success against the run, the 49ers have struggled of late, surrendering outputs of 25.5, 26.2, and 17.6 half PPR to opposing RB1s over the last three weeks.
The Saints-Bucs game is a great place to start your build this week, with Michael Thomas ($38), Mike Evans ($36), and Chris Godwin ($32) all ranking in the top five at the position in our GLSP. Thomas ranks first and posted 11/182/2 against the Bucs earlier this season. Evans ghosted in the last game and Godwin erupted for 7/125/2. With this trio, anything could happen, but all of my lineups will feature at least one of them, and I’ll have plenty of lineups with Thomas plus one of the Bucs receivers, too.
I’ll also be targeting receivers (and tight ends) in the Ravens-Texans game. DeAndre Hopkins ($28) has a juicy matchup with the Ravens defense, which has allowed the second-most expected fantasy points in the NFL to wide receivers over the past five weeks. Hopkins is averaging 16.7 half PPR per game on the road (compared to 10.5 at home) this season and has scored all of his touchdowns on the road, too. Healthy once more, Marquise Brown ($22) nailed the Bengals with 16 points last week and the Texans have allowed nine touchdowns to receivers over the past five games, including a pair to burner Tyreek Hill.
Julian Edelman ($24) has at least seven receptions in each of his past five games, along with three touchdowns over the same span. The Eagles haven’t faced a strong passing game for a few weeks, so their stats look a little better recently than they did earlier in the season. However, the last two receivers on the Edelman level to face the Eagles had great success, with Stefon Diggs, posting 7/167/3 and Amari Cooper turning in 5/106/0.
D.J. Moore ($22) is a screaming value this week against the putrid Falcons passing defense. My favorite player for the 2019 season has maintained in incredible floor (11-plus half PPR in seven of nine games) and posted his two best games of the season (fantasy-wise) over the past two weeks. He’s somehow only scored one receiving touchdown on 79 targets — this is the type of matchup where regression could hit in a big way. If Moore is a good play against the Falcons, so is Curtis Samuel ($20) and his ownership will be much, much lower. If you want to dabble in Panthers stacks, don’t go without a little Samuel peppered in.
Emmanuel Sanders ($21) hung 7/112/1 on the Cardinals in their first matchup and Deebo Samuel ($13) has 18 targets over the past two games and broke out for 8/112/0 in week 10. George Kittle is expected to miss another game, so this pair should see the majority of the 49ers’ receiving work. Either (or both, given Samuel’s low price) can fill out your Garoppolo lineups.
Jamison Crowder ($16) has at least 80 yards and a touchdown in consecutive weeks.
Andy Isabella ($11) scored an 88-yard touchdown against the 49ers two weeks ago and makes for a cheap dart play in any lineup, or a leverage play in Murray lineups (I expect Christian Kirk to be the dominant Cardinals investment this week). He isn’t seeing much volume, but at this price we only need one play to payoff the price, and it means enough salary to fit McCaffrey and Michael Thomas in the same lineup without going scrubs across the board.
Darren Waller ($21) faces the Bengals, who have been roasted by good tight ends this season, including multiple embarrassments to the Ravens big men in the past five weeks. He’s in a bit of a lull over the past month, but the matchup is right.
Greg Olsen ($16) saw 10 targets and returned 8/98 in week 10. The Falcons give up the sixth-most fantasy points over expectation to tight ends over the past five weeks.
Mike Gesicki ($10) is min-priced and has consecutive games with six targets.
Oakland ($15) gets Ryan Finley and the Bengals at home. Targeting Finley worked out very well for us last week and the Raiders make for a good correlation stack with Jacobs.
Miami ($11) is at home against Buffalo. The Dolphins defense has allowed just 16 and 12 points over the past two weeks, putting up four sacks and four interceptions in those games.