Before jumping into week 12, a quick review for the tally on week 11. Cash got there bringing us to nine of 11 on the season. Tournaments were more dicey for me. Being too heavy on Mohamed Sanu and Emmanuel Sanders brought a good deal of failure while D.J. Chark, John Brown, and Michael Thomas were the wide receivers to carry some lineups. It was a low scoring week overall and this one could be similar as it has a lack of value pricing across the board. Let’s dive into it.
Top Game
Bucs at Falcons
It would be completely irresponsible to go in any direction but this game as it has easily the highest total on the slate and the narrative of an improved Falcons defense will keep ownership on the game lower than it should be. If you watched the Falcons play last week, you saw the Panthers move the ball without trouble and then trip over themselves when it was time to punch it in the end zone. Allen threw interceptions that made Jameis Winston ($6,200) wonder he was doing, and speaking of the interception king himself, he is an underpriced great play this week that will also be under-owned.
We know the Bucs offense runs through the wide receivers with Winston being the trigger man. This begs the question of how have the WRs fared against Atlanta since the Falcons’ phantom ascension? In a phrase, just fine.
Since this mirage of a defensive turnaround, wide receivers have had much better games than in the previous three. The Falcons were generally not competitive or not thrown against in the Rams and Seahawks games, and Arizona was missing Kirk at that time.
Notice the archetype of wide receiver that smashed them in the last two games. A high-end, high-volume possession receiver, which most closely resembles Chris Godwin ($7,200). His volume has not come down during his mini-slump but the yardage and touchdowns have hit a valley. That is likely to change this week as the top stack for Winston. Also in play weekly at this point is Mike Evans ($7,300) as the top boom-or-bust play among wide receivers.
One last potential stack on this side of the ball is Cameron Brate ($3,600) who popped for an insane 14 targets last week. It’s not the perfect matchup, but it does offer value for a useful line when volume comes against it.
On the other side of the ball, I’m going to address the Atlanta backs quickly, and that is to say we don’t want any of them and we want to focus on Matt Ryan ($6,700) and his wide receivers. A reminder as to what Tampa offers in terms of QB and WR matchups.
Stacking with Ryan this week is simple, but costly. Assuming Hooper remains out, this week will belong to one of or both of Julio Jones ($8,000) and/or Calvin Ridley ($6,500). Both players obviously bring big ceiling, but it should be noted the cost difference more accurately reflects a floor as Julio has one and Ridley doesn’t.
Our top game of the week brings two passing games to target with a fairly tight player pool for game stacking options.
Quarterback
There simply aren’t a gaggle of great quarterback plays this week. We covered the somewhat pricey options in the Atlanta game, but there is a pay down spot that can be pinpointed for cash this week. With the success of Lamar Jackson this year, it’s easy to remember the value of rushing points for a quarterback. Jeff Driskel ($5,500) brings that rushing floor and ceiling against a terrible Washington team and brings the value desperately needed in lineups this week. He is the cash quarterback and okay for tournaments as well. He can be stacked with either of his top two wide receivers if you feel an absolute need, but naked is the most optimal play here.
For game stacking purposes, the only player on the radar for Washington is Derrius Guice ($4,700), who is a sound value in terms of this slate. The Detroit DST is attractive as well against the worst quarterback in the league.
Also favorably priced is Sam Darnold ($5,800) who is riding a bit of a hot streak and gets a sound matchup with the Raiders. He’s accounted for six touchdowns in his last two games, also in good matchups, and is in a favorable spot to keep it rolling.
Don’t forget how friendly the Raiders are to quarterbacks. They have had matchups with replacement-level quarterbacks the past two weeks. Looking at you Phillip Rivers.
While Jamison Crowder ($6,200) has been the clear top option for Darnold, and is in play, the matchup sets up better for a big play threat, while Crowder is more of a possession player.
You may need to hold your nose for this one but Robby Anderson ($4,800), who is a low percentage boom or bust player, is in a spot for a boom. He’s had just one spike week on the season, but if there is to be another one, this is the spot.
Also in play for the Jets is favorably priced Leveon Bell ($6,400). He brings sound touchdown equity in a positive script and receiving floor in a negative script.
For game stacking purposes, we want pass-catchers as the Jets are a bit of a pass funnel and difficult to run on. Both Tyrell Williams ($5,900) and Darren Waller ($5,700) are in play for ceilings. Make a large note that Waller’s two smash games over 30 points came in volume spots on the road where game script brought volume.
In hindsight, this game may have been better suited in the top games section.
One more quarterback to take a look at is Josh Allen ($6,400). He’s stumbled upon the rushing prowess that made him such a success to close 2018 of late, scoring four times in his last three. While stacking with John Brown ($6,700) is okay, that will be the most popular way to play Allen and he is best suited to be played naked in this matchup.
Running Back
With our quest for value and salary savings on this slate, I’ll divide running back and wide receiver into pay up spots and value spots.
Pay Up
Christian McCaffrey ($10,500) is in play every single week and doesn’t need to be discussed. There are two other backs that are pay-up backs but more favorably priced worth a look this week.
Ezekiel Elliott ($7,500) is priced the lowest he has been all season and the lowest in memory, period. I know the Patriots matchup is ugly on the surface, but the passing game could have real struggles, particularly with the wide receivers. Zeke continues to have a real role as a pass-catcher, but he could truly do damage on the ground in this one.
Notice the other high-end backs that found success carrying the ball, just without the touchdowns to bring a monster line overall. I truly believe the Cowboys optimal avenue of attack is on the ground in this one and Zeke is in a sneaky floor and ceiling spot that will see him outside the top five in running back ownership, despite the price.
Derrick Henry ($6,900) has enjoyed an easier life as Tannehill has brought competence to the passing game and balance to the offense. He’s found the end zone four times in the last two games, has been somewhat involved in the passing game, and gets a quite favorable matchup.
Value Spots
If Jordan Howard is ultimately ruled out, Miles Sanders ($5,000) is once again a cash play and heavy tournament use. If Howard plays, it is a situation to avoid.
Joe Mixon ($5,900) is priced lower than he should be in an imperfect matchup, but he has been the life blood of that thing the Bengals label an offense of late. They will need to lean heavily on him in this one, but it is realistic he sees a ton of volume again, and the dismantled state of the Steeler offense helps with game script concerns, if there are any.
James White ($5,300) could see increased volume with the decimated state of the WR corps. His weekly floor is buoyed by some ceiling in this spot.
If paying down even further, the only true option is Bo Scarborough ($4,200) in hopes he falls into the end zone a couple times against the joke that is the Redskins.
Wide Receiver
Pay Up
Michael Thomas ($9,300) is the wide receiver version of CMC and is in play weekly.
Odell Beckham Jr ($7,000) is favorably priced in the matchup that John Brown destroyed last week. There is massive ceiling here.
Julian Edelman ($6,900) might see obscene volume with wide receiver room looking like a triage tent. His floor remains and the ceiling here is huge.
D.J. Moore ($6,400) has become a high end volume machine and already brings a large weekly floor. A ceiling game is coming.
D.J. Chark ($6,400) smashed for us last week and he is quietly a huge floor and ceiling play every week and we still get a favorable price. The running game could struggle in this matchup and the script could be one for another Chark smash.
Value Spots
DeVante Parker ($5,200) is quietly a volume machine, seeing 10 targets in consecutive games and three of his last five. The script and matchup are right for Parker who has both big floor and ceiling at this salary.
Diontae Johnson ($5,100) will get his first game as the Steelers top wide receiver in a good matchup with the rest of the offense very banged up. Not much floor but lots of ceiling here.
Tight End
With the tight ends we’ve already covered being the best plays, there’s only one more to look to look at as a high-end play. That is Zach Ertz ($6,000). He has seen 11 targets and over 90 yards in consecutive games in a quietly high-end matchup. There isn’t much ceiling to be had at the position this week, and Ertz is the only player on par with Waller in that department.
The only other player truly worth a look is Ryan Griffin ($4,200). However, he will be popular this week and won’t be sneaking up on anyone.
Image Credit: Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Chris Godwin.
