Who are the best plays for the Week 12 DFS primetime slate on DraftKings and FanDuel? Tyler Loechner runs through notes on the primetime short slate featuring SNF/MNF games.1
DSF Week 12 Primetime Slate
|Home||Away||Spread||Favorite Implied||Underdog Implied||Vegas Total|
|San Francisco 49ers||Green Bay Packers||SF -3||25.25||22.25||47.5|
|Los Angeles Rams||Baltimore Ravens||BAL -3||24.75||21.75||46.5|
DFS Week 12 Primetime Slate theory thoughts:
- No one team has a clear advantage in any area over their opponent, and no one game is obviously better than the other from a fantasy perspective. This type of slate is fun but challenging because every player seems like a legitimate option, complete with multiple pros and cons.
- How you handle the upper echelons of the WR position this week will likely go a long way in how your Week 12 primetime slate DFS roster turns out. Do you go with Davante Adams in the toughest matchup against the 49ers, the cooled-off Cooper Kupp against the Ravens, or the questionable-health Emmanuel Sanders against the Packers?
Chalk: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
If Jackson is on the slate, you play him. It’s that simple. His home/road splits are nearly identical, so there’s no concern there, and the Rams have allowed the eighth-most FPOE2 to opposing QBs over their last five games.
Contrarian: Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers
Garoppolo has quietly tossed four TDs in two of his last three games, scoring over 31 DraftKings points in both contests. And he did this without George Kittle, who is expected back from injury in Week 12. Per the NFL Stat Explorer, Garoppolo has an above-average QB matchup against a Packers D that ranks bottom-five in passing yards allowed, passing yards per attempt allowed, and completion rate over their last five games.
Chalk: Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
The 49ers have low-key been exposed by some running backs in recent weeks, allowing the sixth-most FPOE to the position over their last five contests. Christian McCaffrey (18 touches for 155 total yards and a TD), Kenyan Drake (19-162-1), and Chris Carson (28-103-1) have all pounded the 49ers in three of their last four games.
Contrarian: Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams
Gurley paid off as a contrarian play on last week’s primetime slate, touching the ball a season-high 28 times for 135 total yards and a score. He won’t be as contrarian this week because of his big game in Week 11, but I still think people won’t click his name as much as they should, mostly because the matchup isn’t fantastic. The usage is (apparently) back, but his price remains deflated.
If we’re looking for any positives about Gurley’s matchup, consider that he has scored 18.4 DK points per game at home vs. 11.0 on the road. Baltimore has also ranked in the bottom half of the league in terms of FPOE ceded to RBs over their last three contests.
Chalk: Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers
I’ve flip-flopped between Adams and Cooper Kupp as the expensive WR you want to own on this slate, and I think I’m sticking with Adams given his recent usage vs. Kupp’s. Adams has tallied 36 targets over his last three contests. Kupp has just three looks in his last two games. Adams has a worse matchup, but his talent and high volume transcend matchups, so I’m not going to put too much stock into it this time around.
Contrarian: Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams
Woods is expected to play in Week 12 after being a surprise inactive in Week 11. He leads the NFL in targets without a touchdown (71) but this week gets a Ravens D that ranks bottom 10 in targets, receptions, and air yards ceded to opposing WRs. Ten different WRs have topped 50 yards against Baltimore over their last five games. Woods is also typically good for a rushing attempt or two per game, for what it’s worth.
Contrarian: Kendrick Bourne, San Francisco 49ers
Bourne is riding a hot streak with a TD in three straight games, and 14 total targets over his last two contests. He may take a bit more of a back seat with Kittle expected back at TE and Emmanuel Sanders supposedly in line to play a full game, but Bourne is incredibly cheap and has been in on 63% of San Francisco’s offensive snaps over the last two weeks, compared to just 36% from Weeks 1-9. Even if Kittle and Sanders do play, it’s also possible one or both will be limited, giving Bourne more run time yet again.
Chalk: George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
I think if Kittle plays, you ought to consider him the chalk. He has at least eight targets in five of eight games this season, with at least 70 receiving yards in four of his last five games. He played through his current knee/ankle injury when he sustained it back in Week 9, and posted a line of 8-6-79-1 in that game. Also, the Packers are awful against TEs. From the 14 Stats to Know for DFS in Week 12 piece:
Over their last five contests, Green Bay has allowed enemy TEs to rack up the most fantasy points and most expected points against them. Tee up George Kittle (if healthy) or Ross Dwelley (if Kittle’s out) with confidence.
Contrarian: Nick Boyle, Baltimore Ravens
I’m not telling you to play Boyle. I’m just saying I’m not totally against it on a two-game slate. O’Boyle Rules has at least three targets in three straight games with one TD in that span. He’s a dart throw leverage play against guys like Mark Ingram and Mark Andrews.
Image Credit: Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Lamar Jackson.
- An important note: I’m writing this column with tournaments and GPPs top of mind. Cash game plays on short slates are usually easier to figure out because the options are so thin; tournaments require quite a bit of game theory, which can be half the fun. (back)
- Fantasy points over expectation. (back)