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15 Stats to Know for DFS in Week 14

Utilizing RotoViz’s suite of creative tools, metrics, and filterable stats (all of which just keep getting better!), I unearthed 15 key stats to help you crush your Week 14 NFL DFS lineups.

Vegas lines for Week 14

Reported lines are current as of December 5, 2019.1

Date & TimeFavoriteLineUnderdogTotal
12/8 1:00 ETBaltimore-5.5At Buffalo43.5
12/8 1:00 ETAt Green Bay-12.5Washington41.5
12/8 1:00 ETAt Houston-9Denver42.5
12/8 1:00 ETAt New Orleans-2.5San Francisco44
12/8 1:00 ETAt Cleveland-7.5Cincinnati41.5
12/8 1:00 ETAt Atlanta-3Carolina47.5
12/8 1:00 ETAt Minnesota-13Detroit43
12/8 1:00 ETAt NY Jets-5.5Miami45.5
12/8 1:00 ETAt Tampa Bay-3Indianapolis46.5
12/8 4:05 ETLA Chargers-3At Jacksonville43
12/8 4:25 ETAt New England-3Kansas City49
12/8 4:25 ETPittsburgh-2.5At Arizona43.5
12/8 4:25 ETTennessee-2.5At Oakland47.5
12/8 8:20 ETAt LA Rams PKSeattle46.5
12/9 8:15 ETAt Philadelphia-9.5NY Giants46

BAL @ BUF: The Ravens have allowed the fewest FPs to opposing QBs

IMPLIED: BAL 24.5, BUF 19 — TOTAL: 43.5

Over their last five games, the Baltimore D has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs, per our NFL Stats Explorer. The best fantasy output in this span was Tom Brady, who scored 16.25 fantasy points back in Week 9. QBs are averaging fewer than 200 passing yards per game against Baltimore in this span. Josh Allen is a risky choice in Week 14 DFS.

week 14 dfs josh Allen ravens

WAS @ GB: Davante Adams has double-digit targets in five straight games

IMPLIED: GB 27, WAS 14.5 — TOTAL: 41.5

Adams had 15 targets in Week 4, then he was injured though Week 8, and since returning in Week 9, he has seen 11, 10, 12, and 10 targets. Per our Weekly Stats tool, his 10.8 targets per game since Week 9 is sixth among WRs. Adams, last year’s receiving TD leader, also has TDs in back-to-back games after being held out of the end zone until Week 12. Up next is a Washington defense that has allowed the seventh-most FPOE2 to opposing WRs over their last five games.

DEN @ HOU: Denver has allowed the sixth-most FPOE to WRs

IMPLIED: HOU 25.75, DEN 16.75 — TOTAL: 42.5

Denver’s pass D has allowed the sixth-most FPOE to WRs over their last five contests, including the third-, seventh-, and fifth-most over their last three weeks, respectively. They were dusted by both slot (Keenan Allen 6-68-1) and outside big WRs (5-117-0 to Mike Williams) last week. With a high implied total of 25.75, you can lean on DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller in Week 14 DFS where they might be slightly lower owned than usual.

SF @ NO: QBs have thrown for just 166 YPG against SF over the last month

IMPLIED: NO 23.25, SF 20.75 — TOTAL: 44

Over their last five games, opposing QBs have scored the eighth-most fantasy points against San Francisco’s vaunted D. But there’s a catch: In that span, SF has played Lamar JacksonKyler Murray twice, and Russell Wilson — all extremely mobile QBs that scored most of their points against SF on the ground. Through the air, the 49ers have been staunch, holding the last five QBs faced to an average of just 166 passing YPG. Even in the Superdome, Drew Brees is a risky play in Week 14 DFS.

CIN @ CLE: The Bengals have allowed the most YPR to opposing WRs

IMPLIED: CLE 24.5, CIN 17 — TOTAL: 41.5

Over their last five games, the Bengals D has surrendered the ninth-most receiving yards, most YPR, third-most YAC, and third-worst RACR.3 This comes despite allowing just the 22nd-most receptions to WRs in this span. Odell Beckham Jr. is an interesting contrarian play after a week in which everyone is down on him, and Jarvis Landry remains firmly in play.

CAR @ ATL: The Panthers D ranks in the bottom half of the league in all WR categories

IMPLIED: ATL 25.25, CAR 22.25 — TOTAL: 47.5

Here’s how the Panthers defense ranks against WRs over their last five games: targets (13th), receptions (sixth), yards (eighth), YPR (16th), air yards (ninth), YAC (13th), and RACR (ninth). Calvin Ridley dunked on this defense for 8-8-143-1 in Week 11, and Julio Jones will be back at full strength for Week 14 DFS lineups.

DET @ MIN: The Lions still rank bottom-10 against RBs

IMPLIED: MIN 28, DET 15 — TOTAL: 43

Fire up Dalvin Cook with confidence this week (he’s fully expected to play). Not only are the Vikings 13-point home favorites with an implied total of 28 (which suits Cook well — see the chart below), but the Lions also rank bottom-10 in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs and bottom-five in FPOE allowed to the position over their last five games.

MIA @ NYJ: The Dolphins have allowed opposing WR1s to top 28 points against them in three straight games

IMPLIED: NYJ 25.5, MIA 20 — TOTAL: 45.5

John Brown went for 14-9-137-2 against the Dolphins in Week 11, followed by Jarvis Landry dropping 13-10-148-2 and OBJ going 8-6-84-1 in Week 12, and finally Alshon Jeffery lighting them up for 16-9-137-1. One of Robby Anderson or Jamison Crowder should eat this week. My bet would be on Anderson, who just hit a season-high 10 targets last week.

IND @ TB: Mike Evans has the highest WR ceiling of the week

IMPLIED: TB 24.75, IND 21.75 — TOTAL: 46.5

According to our Game Level Similarity Projections (GLSP), Mike Evans has the highest ceiling among all WRs this week.4 He could be a Week 14 DFS tournament winner after a few down weeks in a row.

LAC @ JAX: Melvin Gordon has the second-highest RB ceiling of the week

IMPLIED: LAC 23, JAX 20 — TOTAL: 43

Per our GLSP, Gordon has a PPR ceiling projection of 23.1 points, giving him the second-highest ceiling of the week at the position.5 The Jaguars have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points and second-most FPOE to running backs over their last five games.

KC @ NE: The Patriots D has allowed the 10th-most FPOE to opposing QBs over their last five games

IMPLIED: NE 26, KC 23 — TOTAL: 49

New England’s pass D remains staunch, allowing just the 20th-most fantasy points and 25th most EP6 to opposing QBs over their last five games, but there has been vulnerability, as the team has ceded the 10th-most FPOE to passers in this stretch. Patrick Mahomes has thrown for fewer than 200 passing yards in two straight games — but is he a legitimate bet-on-talent contrarian play in this matchup?

PIT @ ARZ: James Washington has 90 yards and a TD in three of his last four games

IMPLIED: PIT 23, ARZ 20.5 — TOTAL: 43.5

And he this week gets a Cardinals defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points, fifth-most expected points, and second-most FPOE to opposing WRs over their last five games. At least one WR has topped 100 yards against them in four of their last five.

TEN @ OAK: The Raiders are a bottom-1o D against the run

IMPLIED: TEN 25, OAK 22.5 — TOTAL: 47.5

Oakland has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points, 12th-most expected points, and seventh-most FPOE to opposing RBs over their last five games. Giddyup, Derrick Henry. This is also the highest implied team total (25) Henry has seen in his last 32 games.

SEA @ LAR:

IMPLIED: SEA 23.25, LAR 23.25 — TOTAL: 46.5

According to our Strength of Schedule Streaming app, Los Angeles’ Week 14 tilt against the Seahawks represents one of their best WR matchups of the entire season. The only softer matchups Robert WoodsCooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks and co. have seen all season include Tampa Bay and Cincinnati.

NYG @ PHI: This is the second-lowest implied team total of Saquon Barkley’s career

IMPLIED: PHI 27.75, NYG 18.25 — TOTAL: 46

The Giants have an 18.25 implied total, the second-lowest of Barkley’s young career. He has also never been such a big underdog before (-9.5). Barkley has finished as the fantasy RB19 or worse in four straight games, and this matchup isn’t looking rosy for him, either. He could, however, rack up some points in full PPR formats (like DraftKings).

Image Credit: Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Melvin Gordon.

  1. Provided by footballlocks.com.  (back)
  2. Fantasy points over expectation.  (back)
  3. RACR measures the percentage of Air Yards that turned into actual yards.  (back)
  4. Ceiling as defined as a 75th percentile PPR performance.  (back)
  5. Trailing only Christian McCaffrey.  (back)
  6. Expected points.  (back)

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