In Part 2, Jesse Cohen applies the lesson from Part 1 to the 2026 draft class and shares a few other contrarian post-draft thoughts.
Winning the Analytics Wars, Part 1 Recap
In Part 1, we reached a limited but important finding:
For Tier 1-3 QBs and WRs in the RotoViz rookie rankings that have skeptical NFL.com grades (<6.40), the bust rate jumps from about 25% to 58%; a 2.32x increase in relative risk… These are still players with ‘good’ grades, typically able to succeed in the right environment, but rarely to transcend the wrong one.
Let’s apply that insight to the 2026 draft class, with a dash of old-school RotoViz arbitrage, and conclude with a few final post-draft thoughts.
