Who are the best plays for the Week 13 DFS primetime slate on DraftKings and FanDuel? Tyler Loechner runs through notes on the primetime short slate featuring SNF/MNF games.1
DSF Week 13 Primetime Slate
|Home||Away||Spread||Favorite Implied||Underdog Implied||Vegas Total|
|Houston Texans||New England Patriots||NE -3||24||21||45|
|Seattle Seahawks||Minnesota Vikings||SEA -3||26.25||23.25||49.5|
DFS Week 13 Primetime Slate theory thoughts:
- We have another primetime slate in which both games are viable to attack. The Patriots-Texans game offers many more contrarian options, while the Seahawks-Vikings game features much of the slate’s chalk. If you’re in the money after Sunday night, you shouldn’t rest too easy.
- The WR options are thin outside of the top of the list, but if you pay up for multiple big-name WRs, you are left with scraps for the RB position. Deciding how to spend salary at these two positions will be the bigger slate-decider for you.
Chalk: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Wilson has a seemingly negative matchup against Minnesota’s top-10 pass D, but the game is also in Seattle, where Wilson averages 29.7 DraftKings points per game versus. 19.4 on the road. In five home games this year, Wilson has tossed 14 touchdowns against just one interception.
The matchup also isn’t quite as bad as it seems, as the Vikings have allowed the 15th-most points and seventh-most expected points to opposing QBs over their last five games, per our NFL Stat Explorer. And That includes contests against weak QBs such as Brandon Allen, Matt Moore, and Case Keenum. The actual good QBs the Vikings have recently faced — Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott — both went for over 350 yards and three-plus TDs.
Contrarian: Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Brady has struggled over the last month, in no small part due to the revolving door at WR and injuries to those WRs — but the Pats do have the second-highest implied team total on the slate (24) and the Texans have allowed the third-most fantasy points and most FPOE2 to enemy QBs over the last five weeks.
Chalk: Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
Cook is chalk on any slate he plays … and even more so on short slates. It’s worth noting that Cook (19) has the most rushing attempts from inside the five among all RBs on the league. He’s far ahead of the next-closest (Christian McCaffrey at 16).
Contrarian: James White, New England Patriots
White makes for an interesting contrarian stack with Brady, as the Texans have allowed the sixth-most receptions and fifth-most receiving yards to opposing RBs over their last five contests. This includes an average of 7.4 targets, 6.4 receptions, and 54.2 receiving yards to the position in that span. And receiving RBs haven’t heard just been one-off good against the Texans: Houston has allowed top-11 reception and reception yardage outputs to the position in four of their last five games.
Chalk: Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings
Here’s what I wrote about Diggs in my 16 Stats to Know for DFS in Week 13 piece:
“Seattle has given up the 2nd-most targets, 4th-most receptions, and 6th-most receiving yards to opposing WRs over their last 5 games. In this span, WRs rank 4th in expected PPR points per game. This could be a big game for Stefon Diggs.”
— RotoViz (@RotoViz) November 30, 2019
Contrarian: Will Fuller, Houston Texans
I like Fuller as a boom-or-bust tournament option on nearly every slate, but I do think he’ll be fairly low-owned against the vaunted Patriots defense. But with Stephon Gilmore shadowing DeAndre Hopkins and No. 2 cornerback Jason McCourty ruled out for the contest, things are setting up well for Fuller.
Contrarian: N’Keal Harry, New England Patriots
Harry has collected four targets in each of his first two games with one touchdown to show for it. He has caught only 50% of those balls for just 28 yards, but it does seem that Harry is a rising threat in New England’s offense. Harry has two red-zone targets since Week 11, tied for the team lead.
Chalk: Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings
Rudolph has scored five touchdowns over his last five games. He also has at least three receptions in six straight games, after totaling just six receptions from Weeks 1-5. Rudolph now draws a Seahawks defense that ranks dead last in expected points ceded to opposing TEs over their last five games. In this span, Seattle has allowed the most targets, receptions, and third-most receiving yards to the position.
Contrarian: Irv Smith Jr., Minnesota Vikings
Smith has the same enticing matchup as Rudolph, but he’s much cheaper and will draw significantly lower ownership. Smith doesn’t have the same TD record as Rudolph (just one TD this season — although it did come last week), but you can make the case that he’s just as big of a part of the offense. Smith also has at least three receptions in five straight games, with six targets in three of those contests. Rudolph has only seen six targets in a game once this season.
Image Credit: Christopher Mast/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Russell Wilson.
- An important note: I’m writing this column with tournaments and GPPs top of mind. Cash game plays on short slates are usually easier to figure out because the options are so thin; tournaments require quite a bit of game theory, which can be half the fun. (back)
- Fantasy points over expectation. (back)